Harris vs Trump;

[iNow]

5 hours ago, MSC said:

Maybe Biden just shouldn't have dropped out. 

Wrong conclusion. Trump still would’ve won over Biden, but it wouldn’t have been anywhere near as close as it was against Harris. 

More likely, Biden should’ve dropped out sooner, or (better yet IMO) not run at all and let the primaries happen. 
 

23 minutes ago, sethoflagos said:

Possibly.

Or maybe post-covid inflation, a large section of society felt that they had more money in their pockets under the previous administration.

This is a huge part of it, but it’s less about inflation (which has largely been contained especially relative to high GDP peers and advanced nations globally) and is more about prices on headline items at the grocery store plus housing and vehicle costs etc (I.e. things the Fed intentionally made more expensive to help curb the aforementioned inflation). 

Edited 2 hours ago by iNow

[toucana]

24 minutes ago, sethoflagos said:

Possibly.

Or maybe post-covid inflation, a large section of society felt that they had more money in their pockets under the previous administration.

A BBC News article notes that Trump benefited from a massive 14% bump in support from Latino voters according to exit polls.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

Trump garnered almost 42% of the Latino vote in Pennsylvania  - almost 5% of the total vote - compared to 27% when he ran against Joe Biden in 2020.

When asked to explain why the Latino vote had shifted so decisively towards Trump, members of that community cited principally the economy and inflation.

Quote

 

"It's simple, really. We liked the way things were four years ago," said Samuel Negron, a Pennsylvania state constable and member of the large Puerto Rican community in the city of Allentown.

"Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added. "A lot of us have woken up, in my opinion, from Democratic lies that things have been better. We realised things were better then."

 

 

It will be interesting to see if they still feel the same way in about  six months time, once the economy starts to crater and inflation rockets after Trump commences a trade Tariff war with the rest of the world.

[iNow]

1 minute ago, toucana said:

It will be interesting to see if they still feel the same way in about  six months time, once the economy starts to crater and inflation rockets after Trump commences a trade Tariff war with the rest of the world.

It’ll take a few years to see it, not a few months. Bidens policies and historically large investments that are actually helping the economy will continue helping well into 2026 and Trump will be able to claim credit despite doing nothing but talk a big game. 

[Luc Turpin]

44 minutes ago, sethoflagos said:

Possibly.

Or maybe post-covid inflation, a large section of society felt that they had more money in their pockets under the previous administration.

Good observation!

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

It’ll take a few years to see it, not a few months. Bidens policies and historically large investments that are actually helping the economy will continue helping well into 2026 and Trump will be able to claim credit despite doing nothing but talk a big game. 

And folks are really not very good in attributing the economic situation to the right folks. I think the concept of time eludes a lot if people.

[sethoflagos]

1 hour ago, toucana said:

When asked to explain why the Latino vote had shifted so decisively towards Trump, members of that community cited principally the economy and inflation.

In the UK, arguably, the 2008 global banking crisis led to the fall of the Labour government in the following general election, just as the Covid crisis precipitated (in a similarly toxic campaign to the US) a landslide victory back to the left this year.

Actual policies seem pretty irrelevant. It seems quite depressingly random.

 

[CharonY]

2 minutes ago, sethoflagos said:

Actual policies seem pretty irrelevant. It seems quite depressingly random.

It looks like that. You need narratives, not policies. The simpler the better. As some have put it: Trump's message was clear. Bad people want to do bad stuff to you. I make all better for you. This translates to the average voter to a clear message.

Whereas Harris had details and numbers and stuff and that point they suddenly do not understand what she stands for.

Also important: being vague. If you are specific folks on the internet hammer you on it (either legitimately or just by spreading misinformation) and folks repeating the nonsense for some reasons feel smug about it. Be vague and no one can meme you (or whatever young people say). Having a concept of a plan is  apparently a genius thing.