Bayesian Probabilities ? - (The foundering of a super-yacht)

[toucana]

On Monday August 19 a luxury yacht called the Bayesian was sunk at anchor at Porticello near Palermo on the NE coast of Sicily by a freak storm that struck without warning at 4am in the morning. Violents winds of around 150 Km/hour and a large waterspout capsized the vessel which sank within 2 minutes according to eyewitnesses. Of the the 22 people onboard, six are still missing, including British tech magnate Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah, along with Jonathan Bloomer (the CEO of US  investment firm Morgan Stanley International) and his wife.

Mike Lynch, a tycoon who was once hyped as the ‘British Bill Gates’ had only recently been acquitted in June on 16 counts of wire fraud, securities fraud and conspiracy in a San Francisco court  after a 5 year battle against extradition following the $11 billion sale of his firm Autonomy to Hewlett Packard in 2011. The Mediterranean sailing trip aboard the Bayesian had been arranged to celebrate his acquittal, along with members of his family and legal team.

By a bizarre coincidence, Steve Chamberlain the former CFO of Autonomy who stood trial alongside Mike Lynch died just 48 hours earlier after being hit by a car while out jogging in Cambridgeshire UK.

Ship designers have expressed astonishment that a modern 56 metre long super-yacht could capsize and founder so rapidly in these circumstances - and they point to several factors:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0nwe4d7k5o

One was the abnormal height of the 76m (246 feet) aluminium mast, said to be the tallest in the world. CCTV seems to show the vessel being blown over onto its starboard side, and there is speculation that even with no sail set, the windage effect was enough to put the boat on its beam-ends, and that the drag of the mast in the water then created a turning moment around the anchor line which fully capsized it.

Reports suggest that portholes and hatches had been left open to improve ventilation on a hot summer night which led to a rapid inrush of water into the hull. Only the deck watch and those who had chosen to sleep out on the topside seem to have survived.

Yet another factor may well have been elevated sea temperatures in the Mediterranean which are currently at a record high thanks to ongoing anthropogenic climate change. This is causing increasingly violent weather events, and there is speculation that parts of the Mediterranean may soon become too dangerous for pleasure sailing during high summer in the near future.

Edited August 21 by toucana
corrected 'too' final line

[swansont]

Very clever of the orcas, making it look weather-related

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

Very clever of the orcas, making it look weather-related

What do you mean?

 

[toucana]

27 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

What do you mean?

 

There have been a number of recent reports of Orcas (aka Killer Whales) attacking and even sinking smaller yachts>

https://www.livescience.com/animals/orcas/orcas-have-sunk-3-boats-in-europe-and-appear-to-be-teaching-others-to-do-the-same-but-why

Reports of such attacks off the coast of Spain and the straits of Gibralter date back to around May 2020.

Quote

Scientists think a traumatized orca initiated the assault on boats after a "critical moment of agony" and that the behavior is spreading among the population through social learning

 

[TheVat]

Teenagers!

[swansont]

Investigation has shown a problem with the boat  - the priors were installed incorrectly.

[StringJunky]

They are also investigating if the retractable keel was up, which could reduce it's stability. Keels can be retractable for occasions docking in shallow harbours. The keel was 5m on this one.

[toucana]

An obituary of UK software tycoon Mike Lynch in The Register discloses in passing that his super-yacht was named Bayesian as a nod to his lucrative software company Autonomy that was later sold to Hewlett Packard for $11billion.

Quote

Founded in 1996 by Lynch – along with media and internet entrepreneur David Tabizel and technologist Richard Gaunt – the company designed software to employ adaptive pattern recognition techniques centered on Bayesian inference and apply them to business problems including enterprise search and knowledge management.

https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/21/mike_lynch_death/