Nuclear crisis – 2024

[Linkey]

The US does not allow Ukraine to attack Russian bases with long-range missiles (ATACMS). This war looks like if you play Starcraft with somebody, and say that you allow him to use only hydralisks against your tanks; if he uses mutalisks, you will break the computer. I suppose some people here have played Starcraft and understand my metaphor.

I am afraid that Ukraine is losing the war because of such asymmetry. This is absolutely terrible, a victory of Putin will be a total catastrophe for the humanity like the victory of Hitler. I hope that the USA will nevertheless allow Ukraine to use ATACMS, despite the Putin’s nuclear threats. And this leads to a risk of a nuclear war. For minimizing this risk, the following approach can be used: the USA should declare that they will retaliate Russian nuclear strikes symmetrically. If Putin nukes one NATO city, the USA will nuke one Russian city, if Putin nukes 10 cities – the USA will nuke 10 Russian cities, etc. And then, the US should initiate a UN General Assembly with a suggestion to vote for accepting the strategy for a big nuclear war: if more than 20 millions of NATO citizens will die because of Putin’s nuclear strike, US will retaliate not only Russia but also China, because China is feeding the Putin’s regime. In case of a very big nuclear war even nuking an Indian city will be possible, specifically to kill the dictator Modi. Such declarations can make China and India stop buying the oil from Russia.

Putin uses “rational insanity” strategy described in the game theory; he tries to persuade Russians that everything is ok and there is no risk for them. If the NATO should initiate a General Assembly as I described above, this can lead to a decrease the approval rating of Putin inside of Russia.

Edited October 6 by Linkey

[exchemist]

3 hours ago, Linkey said:

The US does not allow Ukraine to attack Russian bases with long-range missiles (ATACMS). This war looks like if you play Starcraft with somebody, and say that you allow him to use only hydralisks against your tanks; if he uses mutalisks, you will break the computer. I suppose some people here have played Starcraft and understand my metaphor.

I am afraid that Ukraine is losing the war because of such asymmetry. This is absolutely terrible, a victory of Putin will be a total catastrophe for the humanity like the victory of Hitler. I hope that the USA will nevertheless allow Ukraine to use ATACMS, despite the Putin’s nuclear threats. And this leads to a risk of a nuclear war. For minimizing this risk, the following approach can be used: the USA should declare that they will retaliate Russian nuclear strikes symmetrically. If Putin nukes one NATO city, the USA will nuke one Russian city, if Putin nukes 10 cities – the USA will nuke 10 Russian cities, etc. And then, the US should initiate a UN General Assembly with a suggestion to vote for accepting the strategy for a big nuclear war: if more than 20 millions of NATO citizens will die because of Putin’s nuclear strike, US will retaliate not only Russia but also China, because China is feeding the Putin’s regime. In case of a very big nuclear war even nuking an Indian city will be possible, specifically to kill the dictator Modi. Such declarations can make China and India stop buying the oil from Russia.

Putin uses “rational insanity” strategy described in the game theory; he tries to persuade Russians that everything is ok and there is no risk for them. If the NATO should initiate a General Assembly as I described above, this can lead to a decrease the approval rating of Putin inside of Russia.

Absolutely not. By far the best thing is to expressly avoid talking up nuclear threats.

If you make nuclear threats, Putin will feel he has to respond in kind, in order not to show weakness. Before before you know it, he will have backed himself into a rhetorical corner from which he cannot escape without either losing face or actually using these weapons.

Russia already knows Nato will retaliate with nukes if Russia uses them to attack NATO states. There is no need to reiterate this in the form of a public threat, which  would effectively force him to make public threats as well.   

[studiot]

Havanna is ~2800 km from Washington.
Kiev is ~750 km from Moscow.

Ukraine is not a member of Nato.

Playing war games may have worked once many years ago but is silly in today's much more complicated world.

 

 

 

 

[swansont]

In addition to these points, we have no way of knowing what has been said privately, either directly or through proxies.We aren’t privy to some of the diplomatic pressures. Things said publicly are mostly for the masses. Putin’s saber-rattling is to prop him up with his own people and make people abroad worried, so they will influence their governments,