Finite Monkeys - It’s not to be

[toucana]

A pair of Australian mathematicians Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta have published a new paper called  A numerical evaluation of the Finite Monkeys Theorem which demonstrates that the estimated lifespan of our universe renders it impossible for an infinite number of monkeys to type out the complete works of Shakespeare.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186324001014

 

As a BBC news article explains:

Quote

 

Known as the "infinite monkey theorem", the thought-experiment has long been used to explain the principles of probability and randomness.

However, a new peer-reviewed study led by Sydney-based researchers Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta has found that the time it would take for a typing monkey to replicate Shakespeare's plays, sonnets and poems would be longer than the lifespan of our universe.

Which means that while mathematically true, the theorem is "misleading", they say.

As well as looking at the abilities of a single monkey, the study also did a series of calculations based on the current global population of chimpanzees, which is roughly 200,000.

The results indicated that even if every chimp in the world was enlisted and able to type at a pace of one key per second until the end of the universe, they wouldn't even come close to typing out the Bard's works.

There would be a 5% chance that a single chimp would successfully type the word "bananas" in its own lifetime. And the probability of one chimp constructing a random sentence - such as "I chimp, therefore I am" - comes in at one in 10 million billion billion, the research indicates.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c748kmvwyv9o

 

 

[Genady]

15 minutes ago, toucana said:

demonstrates that the estimated lifespan of our universe renders it impossible for an infinite number of monkeys to type out the complete works of Shakespeare

They did not demonstrate that (my emphasis). They demonstrated this:

Quote

The Infinite Monkeys Theorem has long-established the eventual certainty of the complete works of William Shakespeare being reproduced by a monkey randomly pressing keys on a typewriter. This only considers the infinite limit, with either an infinite number of monkeys and/or an infinite time period of monkey labour. Here, we consider the Finite Monkeys Theorem and look at the probability of a given string being typed by one of a finite number of monkeys within a finite time allocation consistent with estimates for the lifespan of our universe.

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

With infinite monkeys a subset infinite number of them would type them out directly with no mistakes.

 

Plenty of time for that...