'Living in the time of Nero'

[toucana]

Andrew Coyne a columnist for leading Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail had this to say on the eve of Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration -  (quoted in full because of a paywall):

 

Quote

 

“Nothing mattered, in the end. Not the probable dementia, the unfathomable ignorance, the emotional incontinence; not, certainly, the shambling, hate-filled campaign, or the ludicrously unworkable anti-policies.

The candidate out on bail in four jurisdictions, the convicted fraud artist, the adjudicated rapist and serial sexual predator, the habitual bankrupt, the stooge of Vladimir Putin, the man who tried to overturn the last election and all of his creepy retinue of crooks, ideologues and lunatics: Americans took a long look at all this and said, yes please.

There is no sense in understating the depth of the disaster. This is a crisis like no other in our lifetimes. The government of the United States has been delivered into the hands of a gangster, whose sole purpose in running, besides staying out of jail, is to seek revenge on his enemies. The damage Donald Trump and his nihilist cronies can do – to America, but also to its democratic allies, and to the peace and security of the world – is incalculable. We are living in the time of Nero.

The first six months will be a time of maximum peril. NATO must from this moment be considered effectively obsolete, without the American security guarantee that has always been its bedrock. We may see new incursions by Russia into Europe – the poor Ukrainians are probably done for, but now it is the Baltics and the Poles who must worry – before the Europeans have time to organize an alternative. China may also accelerate its Taiwanese ambitions.

At home, Mr. Trump will be moving swiftly to consolidate his power. Some of this will be institutional – the replacement of tens of thousands of career civil servants with Trumpian loyalists. But some of it will be … atmospheric.

At some point someone – a company whose chief executive has displeased him, a media critic who has gotten under his skin – will find themselves the subject of unwanted attention from the Trump administration. It might not be so crude as a police arrest. It might just be a little regulatory matter, a tax audit, something like that. They will seek the protection of the courts, and find it is not there.

The judges are also Trump loyalists, perhaps, or too scared to confront him. Or they might issue a ruling, and find it has no effect – that the administration has called the basic bluff of liberal democracy: the idea that, in the crunch, people in power agree to be bound by the law, and by its instruments the courts, the same as everyone else. Then everyone will take their cue. Executives will line up to court him. Media organizations, the large ones anyway, will find reasons to be cheerful.

Of course, in reality things will start to fall apart fairly quickly. The huge across-the-board tariffs he imposes will tank the world economy. The massive deficits, fueled by his ill-judged tax policies – he won’t replace the income tax, as he promised, but will fill it with holes – and monetized, at his direction, by the Federal Reserve, will ignite a new round of inflation.

Most of all, the insane project of deporting 12 million undocumented immigrants – finding them, 

snipped owing to copyright

 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/.../article-trumps.../

[exchemist]

25 minutes ago, toucana said:

Andrew Coyne a columnist for leading Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail had this to say on the eve of Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration -  (quoted in full because of a paywall):

 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/.../article-trumps.../

This articulates precisely the fear many of us in Europe have about what has happened to the USA - and the astonishment and consternation we feel about the mindset of the Americans who elected Trump. It is exactly what I meant (on @JohnDBarrow’s silly  thread) about the yearning for an absolute monarch who will ride roughshod over the institutions and processes that sustain a working democracy.

One hopes of course that the USA and the world will be saved by Trump’s incoherence and incompetence, when it comes to implementing these hare-brained ideas. But there are clever men in or close to the administration for whom Trump is the useful idiot, and who will try to forge policies out of the ensuing goat rodeo to their own advantage. In fact there is already a fight - between Bannon and Musk - over whose useful idiot he is! 

But one is left with a sense that fascism, or semi-fascism (fascism-lite?) is now on the march, across the world. It is extraordinary to me, as a post WW2 cold war child, that the USA should be leading this. It all seems to have been triggered by the election of their first black president. Slavery continues to cast a long shadow.

Edited Sunday at 03:11 PM by exchemist

[Markus Hanke]

14 hours ago, exchemist said:

It is extraordinary to me, as a post WW2 cold war child, that the USA should be leading this.

Indeed. As someone who grew up in the former Eastern Bloc, and whose family fled to the West as political refugees in the early 80’s, the US used to be something we looked up to and admired, a beacon of hope somewhere beyond the bleak grey concrete of communist suburban plattenbau (literally and figuratively). Needless to say these illusions have been thoroughly destroyed over the past 30+ years, and what I see now in the US just fills me with sadness and a sense of despair. Are we soon going to see people fleeing the US, like we once fled from the East? Oh how the tables have turned.

I anticipate the rest of the world turning more towards the Asian powers in the near future, particularly China, mark my words. Time to dust off my rather rusty Mandarin (it’s been 25 years since I lived in China), me thinks.

[exchemist]

3 hours ago, Markus Hanke said:

Indeed. As someone who grew up in the former Eastern Bloc, and whose family fled to the West as political refugees in the early 80’s, the US used to be something we looked up to and admired, a beacon of hope somewhere beyond the bleak grey concrete of communist suburban plattenbau (literally and figuratively). Needless to say these illusions have been thoroughly destroyed over the past 30+ years, and what I see now in the US just fills me with sadness and a sense of despair. Are we soon going to see people fleeing the US, like we once fled from the East? Oh how the tables have turned.

I anticipate the rest of the world turning more towards the Asian powers in the near future, particularly China, mark my words. Time to dust off my rather rusty Mandarin (it’s been 25 years since I lived in China), me thinks.

Hmm, seeing as China is rapidly becoming a totalitarian surveillance state, I'm not sure that would be my first choice. One has to hope Trump will depart after 4 years, though I would not be surprised if he changes the rules to stay in power, as that is what would-be autocrats always do. One also has to hope his presidency craters through infighting and cack-handed attempts to execute unworkable policies. One also has to hope his party's effort to gerrymander the electoral system do not succeed in locking in a permanent bias towards the Repubican [sic] party. So that is maybe three pious hopes. And then of course there is Macmillan's famous "Events, Dear Boy". We cannot know what surprises will come along to derail everyone's plans, including those of Trump and his supprters/puppet masters. 

Meanwhile it is up to the opposition to develop policy alternatives that seem credible and relevant to people's lives and to produce an articulate communicator to sell them. This is what is known as leadership, a quality sadly lacking in most democratic politicians today, obsessed as they are by focus groups that tell them what people happen to think today, as opposed to what arguments can persuade them to think differently, tomorrow, about important issues.  

(If you've had it with the US I would consider Canada.) 

Edited Monday at 09:28 AM by exchemist

[Markus Hanke]

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

Hmm, seeing as China is rapidly becoming a totalitarian surveillance state

Yes, China indeed has its own serious systemic issues too, I didn’t mean to imply anything different. But still I see it becoming a much more influential global player in the near future.
Btw, the surveillance state has always been there in China, it’s just that this has become a lot easier now in the digital age.

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

(If you've had it with the US I would consider Canada.) 

I love Canada, especially the Western states, have been there several times. But for now I’m quite happy in the Nordic countries

[exchemist]

1 hour ago, Markus Hanke said:

Yes, China indeed has its own serious systemic issues too, I didn’t mean to imply anything different. But still I see it becoming a much more influential global player in the near future.
Btw, the surveillance state has always been there in China, it’s just that this has become a lot easier now in the digital age.

I love Canada, especially the Western states, have been there several times. But for now I’m quite happy in the Nordic countries

The Nordics seem to have largely escaped this far right surge. I suspect it is because (i) they were not recently colonial powers and (ii) because nobody learns their languages. So they are not an obvious choice for migrants. 

[iNow]

1 minute ago, exchemist said:

The Nordics seem to have largely escaped this far right surge

They are not, however and as I trust you already know, immune… especially in light of the way human minds in large swaths are being tuned like forks by those in control of social media and information diet dials. 

[toucana]

5 hours ago, exchemist said:

 And then of course there is Macmillan's famous "Events, Dear Boy". We cannot know what surprises will come along to derail everyone's plans, including those of Trump and his supporters/puppet masters. 

Every new US president since Harry Truman in 1945 has faced an unforeseen crisis during their inaugural term which tested their abilities to the limit - and beyond in the cases of Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter. Trump’s first presidency was ended by the abject failure and utter imbecility of his administration’s response to the global COVID pandemic. What will it be this time I wonder ? The San Andreas fault shifting ? Another INES Level 7 nuclear accident like Chernobyl or Fukushima? Or perhaps the collapse of the United States into anarchy and civil war -  if Trump tries to order the US military into California or New York to carry out  his mass deportation program against the will of the state Governors.

As a  footnote: The 14 year reign of the Roman emperor Nero came to an abrupt end when he committed suicide in 68 AD. According to the Roman historian Suetonius, Nero deliberately started the Great Fire of Rome in 64 AD in order to clear land for his pet ‘Golden House’ palace project (another property developer) and subsequently blamed and persecuted the Christians for the destruction that ensued. His avarice, cruelty, and high taxation  policies finally provoked the aristocracy into rebellion against a man they already despised as a panem et circenses (‘bread and circuses’) crowd pleaser, and malignant narcissist.

[swansont]

On 1/19/2025 at 9:40 AM, toucana said:

 (quoted in full because of a paywall):

!

Moderator Note

That’s not how it works. Rule 2.2 still applies - respect copyright protections

 

[TheVat]

10 hours ago, Markus Hanke said:

As someone who grew up in the former Eastern Bloc, and whose family fled to the West as political refugees in the early 80’s, the US used to be something we looked up to and admired, a beacon of hope somewhere beyond the bleak grey concrete of communist suburban plattenbau (literally and figuratively). Needless to say these illusions have been thoroughly destroyed over the past 30+ years, and what I see now in the US just fills me with sadness and a sense of despair. Are we soon going to see people fleeing the US, like we once fled from the East?

Maybe.  Though my temperament is more of the stay and join the Resistance, I admit to having perused Vancouver real estate ads.  I used to think minority rule (which MAGA is) couldn't fly here, but the apathy of half of voting age citizens has collapsed that theory.  

1 hour ago, toucana said:

As a  footnote: The 14 year reign of the Roman emperor Nero...

One can always find parallels to Rome.  Trump seems to have elements of both Nero and his uncle, Caligula - whose brief reign (four years) included him planning to appoint his horse as a consul.  Of course when we look back that far in history, the lens can be smudgy, so it's hard to say how accurate such reports are.  

[exchemist]

2 hours ago, toucana said:

Every new US president since Harry Truman in 1945 has faced an unforeseen crisis during their inaugural term which tested their abilities to the limit - and beyond in the cases of Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter. Trump’s first presidency was ended by the abject failure and utter imbecility of his administration’s response to the global COVID pandemic. What will it be this time I wonder ? The San Andreas fault shifting ? Another INES Level 7 nuclear accident like Chernobyl or Fukushima? Or perhaps the collapse of the United States into anarchy and civil war -  if Trump tries to order the US military into California or New York to carry out  his mass deportation program against the will of the state Governors.

As a  footnote: The 14 year reign of the Roman emperor Nero came to an abrupt end when he committed suicide in 68 AD. According to the Roman historian Suetonius, Nero deliberately started the Great Fire of Rome in 64 AD in order to clear land for his pet ‘Golden House’ palace project (another property developer) and subsequently blamed and persecuted the Christians for the destruction that ensued. His avarice, cruelty, and high taxation  policies finally provoked the aristocracy into rebellion against a man they already despised as a panem et circenses (‘bread and circuses’) crowd pleaser, and malignant narcissist.

I’ll certainly be intrigued to see how this mass deportation is going to work out. In what numbers? Where will they be deported to, and how? Will the receiving countries accept hordes of displaced people plonked on their doorstep? What agency will carry it out and at what cost? What effect will it have on local economies when these people are taken away from the jobs they  have been doing?
 

Or will it be like Trump’s “wall”, i.e. do a little bit,  declare it done - and quickly try to change the subject? 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, iNow said:

They are not, however and as I trust you already know, immune… especially in light of the way human minds in large swaths are being tuned like forks by those in control of social media and information diet dials. 

There are Danish neo-Nazis, certainly. And some far right anti-immigration politics in Sweden.

[CharonY]

On 1/19/2025 at 9:05 AM, exchemist said:

But one is left with a sense that fascism, or semi-fascism (fascism-lite?) is now on the march, across the world. It is extraordinary to me, as a post WW2 cold war child, that the USA should be leading this.

Honestly, I thought that the US was always a bit vulnerable in that regard. There is a sense of always being on the right side of history (despite potential evidence to the contrary) and talking to folks on the topic I frequently got the sense that many consider Nazis and fascism a bit of moral failure of folks with little consideration why they got into power. But since they fought it, they are automatically immune. Contrast that with what school kids in Germany learned about the grandparents and great-grandparents. It tells a much more nuanced story about about the dangers of fascism and that it can literally rise everywhere.

As such, I am much more disturbed by the fact that a Nazi-allied party is on the rise in Germany, which suggests that contrary to what I believed for a long while, education is insufficient protection.

[iNow]

34 minutes ago, exchemist said:

Will the receiving countries accept hordes of displaced people plonked on their doorstep?

He will target them with sanctions if they refuse and extort them into compliance. He will also order US forces to drop the people there as if to “dare” the receiving nations not to accept. 

37 minutes ago, exchemist said:

What agency will carry it out and at what cost?

Expect local sheriffs and off the books militias / shooting clubs to play a big role even if that’s not how it appears on paper. 

30 minutes ago, CharonY said:

I am much more disturbed by the fact that a Nazi-allied party is on the rise in Germany, which suggests that contrary to what I believed for a long while, education is insufficient protection.

Maybe more to the point people are being “educated” by forces who don’t always have the best interests of others as a priority. The AfD stuff in DE is more a start to this and not an end, sadly. 

[CharonY]

6 hours ago, iNow said:

Maybe more to the point people are being “educated” by forces who don’t always have the best interests of others as a priority. The AfD stuff in DE is more a start to this and not an end, sadly. 

My point is that kids are being educated how Nazis came to power, the dangers of fascism and highlighting that safeguards are necessary. Plus Germany had demonstrated that otherwise reasonable people (or at least not less reasonable than folks elsewhere), can communally cause something like the holocaust. And despite all that, the lessons have been erased in big swaths of the population as if these lessons never existed. It wasn't a huge concerted effort required to erase multiple generations of learning. And all they needed was twitter and some stupid memes.

[iNow]

Social media makes it worse, but this also happens as generations pass. Those who witnessed the horrors of WWII are basically now all dead and not around to slap their grandkids for being idiots 

[Markus Hanke]

14 hours ago, exchemist said:

The Nordics seem to have largely escaped this far right surge.

It exists here too, but hasn’t gained much prominence within the local politics (yet).

14 hours ago, exchemist said:

because nobody learns their languages

Which is a pity, because these are rich and beautiful, and so far as Indo-European languages go, among the least complex ones, at least so far as grammar and morphology go (Finnish of course being the exception, but that’s not Indo-European).

I went from zero to C1/C2 in Norwegian in about 18 months, it isn’t too hard for those who already speak at least English. I can also read Swedish and Danish, and can have simple conversations in those languages, though I never formally studied them; these three are just pretty similar. At a stretch I can also figure out a litte Faroese and Icelandic, but only with lots of concentration and guesswork.

Finnish though eludes me, since that is a Uralic language; it’s very different and much more complicated. 

[exchemist]

4 hours ago, Markus Hanke said:

It exists here too, but hasn’t gained much prominence within the local politics (yet).

Which is a pity, because these are rich and beautiful, and so far as Indo-European languages go, among the least complex ones, at least so far as grammar and morphology go (Finnish of course being the exception, but that’s not Indo-European).

I went from zero to C1/C2 in Norwegian in about 18 months, it isn’t too hard for those who already speak at least English. I can also read Swedish and Danish, and can have simple conversations in those languages, though I never formally studied them; these three are just pretty similar. At a stretch I can also figure out a litte Faroese and Icelandic, but only with lots of concentration and guesswork.

Finnish though eludes me, since that is a Uralic language; it’s very different and much more complicated. 

Yes I had colleagues who learnt some Norwegian while posted to Oslo.

But what I was getting at is that, say, potential migrants from former British colonies like Pakistan, India or Nigeria are likely not only to speak English already to some level, but also to have connections with Britain: relatives or friends of family, people who have at least visited, some existing community of people from their country to help them find their feet, and so on. So it's far less of a leap in the dark to go to Britain than trying their luck in Norway. The same goes for France vis-a-vis W African countries or SE Asia.  

In fact, as an Englishman, the view I take of the migration issue is that it is largely payback for British colonialism - and, like the original colonialism, it is a mixture of good and bad influences on the country.

Edited Tuesday at 09:23 AM by exchemist

[Markus Hanke]

19 hours ago, exchemist said:

So it's far less of a leap in the dark to go to Britain than trying their luck in Norway.

Yes, absolutely.

19 hours ago, exchemist said:

the view I take of the migration issue is that it is largely payback for British colonialism

You’ve got a point there. Also, if you’re stuck in less than ideal circumstances, it’s only natural to want to go someplace that’s perceived to provide better opportunities and a better life. Who can blame them? I can guarantee you that those who rant the loudest against immigration would probably be the first ones to try and flee, had they happened to be born in Somalia, just to pick a random example.