Praetorianism; Trump's Friday night massacre of military leadership.

[MSC]

Trump has just started gutting military leadership, starting with the chief of joint staffs. The chief of joint staffs is supposed to be a termed position that crosses over administrations precisely so they can't be partisan hacks. 

I assume most of us here have heard the Padme Amidala quote from Starwars 

Quote

So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause. 

I'd argue that liberty in fact dies once the slavers are made generals and leaders. 

This is the part where I ask the Americans here; how do you expect to keep your democracy intact after this? We all know where this is going, increased defiance of courts and Congress, no more checks and balances, the goading of the American public to engage in protest and then we walk right into martial law. 

Have we just moved past a tipping point where there is little way out of living under a violent and malignant authoritarian regime without some kind of revolution? That's a question of practicality, can an oppressed public, peacefully get themselves out of a dictatorship without said dictator willingly giving up their power?

[exchemist]

28 minutes ago, MSC said:

Trump has just started gutting military leadership, starting with the chief of joint staffs. The chief of joint staffs is supposed to be a termed position that crosses over administrations precisely so they can't be partisan hacks. 

I assume most of us here have heard the Padme Amidala quote from Starwars 

I'd argue that liberty in fact dies once the slavers are made generals and leaders. 

This is the part where I ask the Americans here; how do you expect to keep your democracy intact after this? We all know where this is going, increased defiance of courts and Congress, no more checks and balances, the goading of the American public to engage in protest and then we walk right into martial law. 

Have we just moved past a tipping point where there is little way out of living under a violent and malignant authoritarian regime without some kind of revolution? That's a question of practicality, can an oppressed public, peacefully get themselves out of a dictatorship without said dictator willingly giving up their power?

Yup very hard to reverse if indeed all the military are loyal to Trump instead of to the Constitution. But are they? 

[swansont]

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world

“nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.”

“During a peaceful street protest of millions of people, the members of the security forces may also be more likely to fear that their family members or friends are in the crowd – meaning that they fail to crack down on the movement. “Or when they’re looking at the [sheer] numbers of people involved, they may just come to the conclusion the ship has sailed, and they don’t want to go down with the ship,” Chenoweth says.”

[J.C.MacSwell]

Might be why Putin is so fast to respond to any peaceful opposition...don't let any protests, peaceful included, approach 3.5%

Fortunately the US still has enough rights and freedoms in place...for now

Edited 19 hours ago by J.C.MacSwell

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, MSC said:

This is the part where I ask the Americans here; how do you expect to keep your democracy intact after this? We all know where this is going, increased defiance of courts and Congress, no more checks and balances, the goading of the American public to engage in protest and then we walk right into martial law. 

One thing that makes a simple coup more challenging here is the amount of autonomy that individual states have, and the Posse Comitatus Act disallowing the military to deploy on US soil (unless a governor requests it, or deploys National Guard reserves within a state).  While there are ways around this, you would have a lot of plates spinning with 50 states, and a couple dozen governors who could be mobilizing their state reserves against outside forces, or even peeling off sections of the federal Armed Forces using Constitutional authority.  

For a walking trouser load of excrement like Trump who thinks he can easily extort minerals from Ukraine with some half-baked protection racket, or imagines a round of bullying will turn Canada into a 51st state, or thinks randomly firing experienced civil servants will create lean and effective government, a military coup probably sounds easy, just make some phone calls, throw in some vague promises, and voila.  I will enjoy watching this ambulating turd get buried deep in the litter box when reality comes knocking (or maybe I should say "comes meowing," to keep my metaphors on track).  IOW, I do not think our military will unite behind him, at least not to the degree that nationwide martial law requires.  

 

[toucana]

The Praetorian Guard was said to have been responsible for the overthrow, abandonment, or murder of 15 out of the first 48 Roman emperors who governed Rome between 27 BC and 305 AD.

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/the-praetorian-guard/

Originally adopted as the personal bodyguard of Emperor Augustus in 27 BC, they were finally disbanded by Constantine The Great in 312 AD who also destroyed their barracks at Castra Praetoria -  the only military stronghold allowed south of the Rubicon on the road to Rome.

During this period of influence, the Praetorians were directly responsible for murdering such notorious Roman emperors as Caligula (41 AD), Commodus (192 AD), and Elagabalus (222 AD) - said to have been the first openly transgender Roman emperor.

After murdering the emperor Caligula in 41 AD, the Praetorians initiated the custom of usurping the authority of the Senate, and unilaterally proclaimed Claudius as the new emperor - a practice which continued for centuries.

https://www.historyextra.com/period/roman/the-emperors-fatal-servants/

[exchemist]

8 hours ago, TheVat said:

One thing that makes a simple coup more challenging here is the amount of autonomy that individual states have, and the Posse Comitatus Act disallowing the military to deploy on US soil (unless a governor requests it, or deploys National Guard reserves within a state).  While there are ways around this, you would have a lot of plates spinning with 50 states, and a couple dozen governors who could be mobilizing their state reserves against outside forces, or even peeling off sections of the federal Armed Forces using Constitutional authority.  

For a walking trouser load of excrement like Trump who thinks he can easily extort minerals from Ukraine with some half-baked protection racket, or imagines a round of bullying will turn Canada into a 51st state, or thinks randomly firing experienced civil servants will create lean and effective government, a military coup probably sounds easy, just make some phone calls, throw in some vague promises, and voila.  I will enjoy watching this ambulating turd get buried deep in the litter box when reality comes knocking (or maybe I should say "comes meowing," to keep my metaphors on track).  IOW, I do not think our military will unite behind him, at least not to the degree that nationwide martial law requires.  

 

You don’t need military force for the kind of soft coup that is now in progress, though. All you need is for the army not to get involved to stop you.
 

Once you have ensured all institutions of the state are under your control and that future elections, if any, are sure to return your party, the job is done.

[StringJunky]

Is the time for civil rebellion approaching if the principle tenets of the Constitution are not being observed and democracy is clearly being dismantled? I suppose, the definitive trigger for me would be when no election is called and El Douche declares himself de facto King of the USA.

Edited 8 hours ago by StringJunky

[exchemist]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Is the time for civil rebellion approaching if the principle tenets of the Constitution are not being observed and democracy is clearly being dismantled? I suppose, the definitive trigger for me would be when no election is called and El Douche declares himself de facto King of the USA.

I doubt he’ll do that though, since that’s the reaction he might get. The model is Orban’s Hungary. So the electoral process will continue, in some form, but rigged to ensure he or his successor is the next president and Repubican waxworks  remain in control of Congress, with the aid of @CharonY’s cult votes, cultivated via social media.

The idea will be to allow people to think if things go “too far” they would step in, but then carefully nudge along just below that threshold, while acclimatising people so that their threshold moves beyond the situation at any given moment - frog-boiling, if you will. 
 

I think civil - or military - rebellion, or at least mass demonstrations, may ultimately be needed, but the problem will be to identify a trigger point that motivates enough people.

[iNow]

3 hours ago, exchemist said:

All you need is for the army not to get involved to stop you.

Which is far easier and far more likely when you purposely install leaders who are loyal sycophantic yes-men across all of the top layers of the chain of command.

[exchemist]

Just now, iNow said:

Which is far easier and far more likely when you purposely install leaders who are loyal sycophantic yes-men across all of the top layers of the chain of command.

Quite, though may be hard to do if you still want the military to be effective and professionally led. Fox presenters as top generals? 

[TheVat]

4 hours ago, exchemist said:

Once you have ensured all institutions of the state are under your control and that future elections, if any, are sure to return your party, the job is done.

Yes, there could be a soft coup.  One impediment to that, which is similar to the state-level issues I mentioned previously, is that we have fifty states and fifty election processes.  Election oversight is at the state level, with a lot of election authority and responsibilities extending down to the county level.  The states do have to comply with the federal Constitution, but not with the federal executive.  Our decentralized electoral system is, from what I've heard, unique among the world's democracies.  It is messy, but it is also a migraine for a would-be autocrat.  (am guessing a serious attempt to work around that would have to involve a declaration that some states are somehow in violation of federal law, and then sending enforcement of some kind to take over polling stations - sort of a semi-soft coup, perhaps?)(the frog boiling you mention might consist in first sending "federal advisors," then gradually giving them more of a supervisory role via a series of executive orders which are responding to an "emergency" )

Edited 5 hours ago by TheVat
adds

[exchemist]

23 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Yes, there could be a soft coup.  One impediment to that, which is similar to the state-level issues I mentioned previously, is that we have fifty states and fifty election processes.  Election oversight is at the state level, with a lot of election authority and responsibilities extending down to the county level.  The states do have to comply with the federal Constitution, but not with the federal executive.  Our decentralized electoral system is, from what I've heard, unique among the world's democracies.  It is messy, but it is also a migraine for a would-be autocrat.  (am guessing a serious attempt to work around that would have to involve a declaration that some states are somehow in violation of federal law, and then sending enforcement of some kind to take over polling stations - sort of a semi-soft coup, perhaps?)(the frog boiling you mention might consist in first sending "federal advisors," then gradually giving them more of a supervisory role via a series of executive orders which are responding to an "emergency" )

True, far harder to capture the processes at state level. But it is only the swing states they have to focus on. And for presidential elections they can have fun and games with the electoral college.  But yes, in principle the mid term elections seem to be the best hope. If Congress ceases to be in Trump’s pocket I suppose there are things it can do to stymie him. So long as Trump listens to Congress at all by that stage.

[iNow]

57 minutes ago, TheVat said:

we have fifty states and fifty election processes.  Election oversight is at the state level, with a lot of election authority and responsibilities extending down to the county level

And when they are ignored, and the people ignoring it have control over the soldiers and machinations and weapons, and when even local authorities are on board with those ignoring it, then who / what serves as the enforcement mechanism to stop them?

[J.C.MacSwell]

Right now it seems more like cooking a frog in a very bad microwave, with temperatures all over the place.