American Foreign Policy; Be a complete bullying a******

[exchemist]

3 hours ago, CharonY said:

Especially a VP that has been emasculated repeatedly by the president. If he didn't have the marching order he would never have dared to make a noise.

I’m not so sure. I think Vance and Musk are the ones with the ideology and sense of mission. Trump is just a self-obsessed old man with megalomania and a score of grudges. I think those two are the puppet masters and Trump their useful idiot. Vance in particular strikes me as having the ideological drive that is the missing element in Trump for a real c.21st Hitler. And Vance will take over when Trump conks out. He may be the real deal. That speech in Munich was not scripted by Trump.

[Alex_Krycek]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

The claims that Trump was turned by the KGB in 1987 are becoming more credible.  When you look at the kind of person Trump is, it is so easy to imagine kompromat being found.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5162890-assessing-new-allegations-that-trump-was-recruited-by-the-kgb/

As a simple stochastic strategy it would just make logical sense: throw money and praise at as many Western elites as possible, and hope some of them rise to positions of political power.  For someone with an ego and intellect as vulnerable to praise and manipulation as Trump, coupled with his need for financial backing due to lackluster business performance, it would be a slam dunk.  The book, American Kompromat is seeming all the more believable in light of his recent actions.

9 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

It looks to me like the North Korean media ; they broadcast the world cup final and pretend that the winner is NK.. They know that nobody outside their country is going to swallow it.

They know everyone else laughs at them. But they are targeting their  their supporters who will believe anything. And they don't care about the outside world.

In that context, it makes perfect sense.

"This is going to be great television. I will say that.” - Donald Trump, after his meeting with Zelensky on February 28th.

It was clearly and obviously a preplanned ambush, a stunt for his base.  Trump knows his base don't read, they don't understand the history of Ukraine or geopolitics - all they will pay attention to is emotional based reality TV.  Hence why Zelensky was provoked by Vance.  They just needed a reason to go for the jugular, and apparently Zelensky daring to challenge his majesty and speak up for basic facts was enough.  Through all the sound and the fury (signifying nothing), Zelensky was only trying to warn America, nothing more.  

Edited Saturday at 09:24 PM by Alex_Krycek

[CharonY]

20 minutes ago, exchemist said:

I think Vance and Musk are the ones with the ideology and sense of mission. Trump is just a self-obsessed old man with megalomania and a score of grudges. I think those two are the puppet masters and Trump their useful idiot.

Even if that was true, it would not have played out that way in front of Trump. Even in a normal administration, a VP would never jump in front of a negotiation between the President and the head of another state. Vance is not stupid enough to do that just because of his ego. Considering Trump's ego and capriciousness, it is very unlikely that Vance would have just jumped Zelensky without any coordination or agreement. Trump has repeatedly thrown Vance under the bus to diminish his role in the past.

 

[exchemist]

44 minutes ago, CharonY said:

Even if that was true, it would not have played out that way in front of Trump. Even in a normal administration, a VP would never jump in front of a negotiation between the President and the head of another state. Vance is not stupid enough to do that just because of his ego. Considering Trump's ego and capriciousness, it is very unlikely that Vance would have just jumped Zelensky without any coordination or agreement. Trump has repeatedly thrown Vance under the bus to diminish his role in the past.

 

Oh yes, I’m sure they coordinated the Oval Orifice scene between them. But I still suspect Trump is being played by them, overall.

[MSC]

57 minutes ago, exchemist said:

Oh yes, I’m sure they coordinated the Oval Orifice scene between them. But I still suspect Trump is being played by them, overall.

Honestly, with that many huge egos in one group, they probably all think they are playing each other. Each thinking they are the mastermind behind their rise. For now it's back scratching, but there may be a subtle backstabbing shootout building. 

That said, I do agree that because of age and ailing mental faculties, it is going to be easier for Musk and Vance to manipulate Trump. However it still isn't beyond Trump to out play and throw away the others like a used up toy, same way he did to Mike Pence. 

What really matters is whether or not Trump and his Cabal can keep their ragtag group of backstabbing weasels together long enough to completely lockout democratic competition in the inevitable power struggle. 

[CharonY]

5 hours ago, MSC said:

Honestly, with that many huge egos in one group, they probably all think they are playing each other. Each thinking they are the mastermind behind their rise. For now it's back scratching, but there may be a subtle backstabbing shootout building. 

Based on reports in the first Trump term, this seems to be the usual modus operandi.

 

5 hours ago, MSC said:

That said, I do agree that because of age and ailing mental faculties, it is going to be easier for Musk and Vance to manipulate Trump. However it still isn't beyond Trump to out play and throw away the others like a used up toy, same way he did to Mike Pence. 

I think while Trump is intellectually certainly not brilliant, he does have a sense for persons and loyalty. Or seemed to have. However, as a consequence a lot of his inner circle seem to be idiots.

[exchemist]

9 hours ago, MSC said:

Honestly, with that many huge egos in one group, they probably all think they are playing each other. Each thinking they are the mastermind behind their rise. For now it's back scratching, but there may be a subtle backstabbing shootout building. 

That said, I do agree that because of age and ailing mental faculties, it is going to be easier for Musk and Vance to manipulate Trump. However it still isn't beyond Trump to out play and throw away the others like a used up toy, same way he did to Mike Pence. 

What really matters is whether or not Trump and his Cabal can keep their ragtag group of backstabbing weasels together long enough to completely lockout democratic competition in the inevitable power struggle. 

Agreed. One feels in particular that Musk and Trump must fall out before long. Musk's habit of giving peremptory, high-handed orders steals Trump's thunder. Also, there's a basic conflict between the populist far-right (Bannonists?) and the tech-oligarch, low tax fraternity (Muskies?), which must come to the fore when the DOGE cuts start to bite for ordinary people. So unless by then Trump feels he no longer has to worry about either elections or popular approval more generally, that must lead to friction.

Back on the Foreign policy topic, I read a piece last week by Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times that highlighted the implications of the Trump worldview as applied to the Pacific. If I were Taiwanese I would be very worried now.

Trump sees the world as a carve-up into spheres of influence of 3 strongmen: himself, Putin and Xi. While China is seen as an economic adversary, it would be very Trumpy to propose a "deal" in which Trump agrees not to come to the aid of Taiwan, in exchange for some rebalancing of trade, access to processed lithium and/or rare earths,  or something. The sole strategic interest Trump has in Taiwan is that it has, in TSMC, a unique semiconductor supplier, providing a lot of the high end chips advanced IT hardware requires.  Rachman says the Taiwanese government is coming under pressure (tariff threats again) to sell a major stake in this business to a US manufacturer, allowing manufacture in the USA.   Once this is achieved, Trump can cut Taiwan adrift and Xi can have it.

Based on the disgusting exhibition we have been just been treated to over Ukraine, this has the ring of truth to me. If I were the Taiwanese government I would strongly resist pressure from Trump to let any US organisation anywhere near TSMC. It is the biggest "card" they can play for their own security.

Given the tactics of this administration to flood the zone with shit, it's all too easy to fail to notice things that are not eye-catching but nevertheless significant.  Does anyone know more about this pressuring of Taiwan on semiconductors?

[MSC]

7 hours ago, CharonY said:

think while Trump is intellectually certainly not brilliant, he does have a sense for persons and loyalty. Or seemed to have. However, as a consequence a lot of his inner circle seem to be idiots.

Right. It's also very hard to tell exactly what someone is like when all you see of them is through a camera and they are playing to an audience. I think it is fair to say that Trump has a decent array of acting skills and is quite comfortable behind a camera. When it comes to technical or scientific speak, he is able to use that moment to reach the uneducated and work on them with what usually amounts to "shut up nerds, we don't need these nerds right guys?".

I've only ever met one person who was able to tell me what he was like in person, coincidentally this person was also able to tell me what Obama was like in person, having served food to both, he is the executive chef for the 49ers, he's a Scottish expat like me and we stayed at the same Airbnb for a bit which is where I met him.

Anyway, according to him, one common thing Trump and Obama share in common is that they are super likeable and funny 1-1. Trump loves a good ego stroking but he's also very adept at stroking the egos of others. Not only that he is good at attacking the egos of others. It's the cycling between encouraging love and appreciation toward himself and fear of vengeance. What he does is very common in the behaviors of people with BPD. Splitting people into two very black and white personalities so that you treat them like they are evil when doing something you disapprove of and like a saint when doing something you approve of. 

When I think about the childhood experience of Donald Trump, it makes me think of two cultures. When looking at the dynamic between Trump's father, brother and himself, it brings to mind Sith (from Star wars) and Roman culture. Domination, backstabbing, stepping on one another for fathers love etc. Holy shit, I wonder if Daddy issues are a common theme among Trump supporters 😂 😂 

When it comes to Trump, as within, so without. He'll encourage this kind of backstabbing fight within his people in the USA and encourage it in foreign policy too. Trump I think does want to carve up the world between dictators like him and they are all going to think they are playing each other, locking out democratic competition in order to absorb and have enough to outright crush each other in a land and power grab race that spans the globe. Just like the axis powers were going to do. Make no mistake though, if WW2 had ended with the Axis powers being victorious, the next WW was going to be between them. Now it's between the allies of WW2 to some extent. If WW3 is going to be the US, Russia and China carving up the rest of the world, one day their borders will all that will be left to touch each other, and WW4 goes boom. 

 

[dimreepr]

59 minutes ago, MSC said:

Right. It's also very hard to tell exactly what someone is like when all you see of them is through a camera and they are playing to an audience. I think it is fair to say that Trump has a decent array of acting skills and is quite comfortable behind a camera. When it comes to technical or scientific speak, he is able to use that moment to reach the uneducated and work on them with what usually amounts to "shut up nerds, we don't need these nerds right guys?".

I've only ever met one person who was able to tell me what he was like in person, coincidentally this person was also able to tell me what Obama was like in person, having served food to both, he is the executive chef for the 49ers, he's a Scottish expat like me and we stayed at the same Airbnb for a bit which is where I met him.

Anyway, according to him, one common thing Trump and Obama share in common is that they are super likeable and funny 1-1. Trump loves a good ego stroking but he's also very adept at stroking the egos of others. Not only that he is good at attacking the egos of others. It's the cycling between encouraging love and appreciation toward himself and fear of vengeance. What he does is very common in the behaviors of people with BPD. Splitting people into two very black and white personalities so that you treat them like they are evil when doing something you disapprove of and like a saint when doing something you approve of. 

When I think about the childhood experience of Donald Trump, it makes me think of two cultures. When looking at the dynamic between Trump's father, brother and himself, it brings to mind Sith (from Star wars) and Roman culture. Domination, backstabbing, stepping on one another for fathers love etc. Holy shit, I wonder if Daddy issues are a common theme among Trump supporters 😂 😂 

When it comes to Trump, as within, so without. He'll encourage this kind of backstabbing fight within his people in the USA and encourage it in foreign policy too. Trump I think does want to carve up the world between dictators like him and they are all going to think they are playing each other, locking out democratic competition in order to absorb and have enough to outright crush each other in a land and power grab race that spans the globe. Just like the axis powers were going to do. Make no mistake though, if WW2 had ended with the Axis powers being victorious, the next WW was going to be between them. Now it's between the allies of WW2 to some extent. If WW3 is going to be the US, Russia and China carving up the rest of the world, one day their borders will all that will be left to touch each other, and WW4 goes boom. 

 

In the words of Stephen Fry "The rise of the right is the lefts fault, bc we'd rather be right than effective"...

And I hate myself for admitting it, but Trump does have 'everyone's' attention... 

[toucana]

5 hours ago, exchemist said:

Back on the Foreign policy topic, I read a piece last week by Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times that highlighted the implications of the Trump worldview as applied to the Pacific. If I were Taiwanese I would be very worried now.

Trump sees the world as a carve-up into spheres of influence of 3 strongmen: himself, Putin and Xi. While China is seen as an economic adversary, it would be very Trumpy to propose a "deal" in which Trump agrees not to come to the aid of Taiwan, in exchange for some rebalancing of trade, access to processed lithium and/or rare earths,  or something. The sole strategic interest Trump has in Taiwan is that it has, in TSMC, a unique semiconductor supplier, providing a lot of the high end chips advanced IT hardware requires.  Rachman says the Taiwanese government is coming under pressure (tariff threats again) to sell a major stake in this business to a US manufacturer, allowing manufacture in the USA.   Once this is achieved, Trump can cut Taiwan adrift and Xi can have it.

Based on the disgusting exhibition we have been just been treated to over Ukraine, this has the ring of truth to me. If I were the Taiwanese government I would strongly resist pressure from Trump to let any US organisation anywhere near TSMC. It is the biggest "card" they can play for their own security.

Given the tactics of this administration to flood the zone with shit, it's all too easy to fail to notice things that are not eye-catching but nevertheless significant.  Does anyone know more about this pressuring of Taiwan on semiconductors?

 

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSMC) is the largest company in Taiwan, and the most valuable semiconductor company in the world. Taiwan’s worldwide exports of integrated circuits amounted to $184 billion in 2022, and accounted for 25% of Taiwan’s GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

The status of TSMC as a world leader in Fabless manufacturing, operating as a ‘pure play’ company specialising in the semiconductor foundry industry, has in the past given Taiwan what some critics call a “Silicon Shield” against the threat of invasion or blockade by China.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250225-trump-s-chip-tariff-threats-raise-stakes-for-taiwan

As Taiwan produces more than half the world’s chips, and most of the really advanced ones too, there has always been strong bi-partisan support in the US Congress for Taiwan -  to protect it as a critical part of the global IC supply chain, and to prevent those resources from being expropriated  by China.

A week ago Trump announced tariff plans that would include a 25% levy on imported chips which are used in everything from smart phones to missiles. The problem here is that TSMC don’t ship that large a proportion of their output directly to the USA. They are a semiconductor foundry business who supply chips in bulk to other manufacturers in every part of the world  - including Apple who actually do much of their product assembly in China. A key factor would be whether levies are applied only to chips being shipped to  the United States, or also on chips in finished products.

Trump’s tariff plans are predicated on “redressing trade imbalances” and “encouraging companies to move manufacturing back to the United States”. As it happens TSMC has been opening up new semiconductor foundries around the world - including one in Arizona in 2024. But it’s a slow process that takes years to accomplish.

The real dilemma that TSMC faces however, is that moving their semiconductor foundries out of Taiwan and into other countries dilutes the value of the “Silicon Shield” that has helped to discourage China from invading Taiwan in recent years. Moving their foundries to the USA could simply encourage Donald Trump to throw Taiwan under the bus by allowing China to invade it.

The other part of Trump’s plans for Taiwan seem to involve the usual gangster-style grift of demanding that the Taiwanese “pay” for the “protection” they receive from the United States.

 

[exchemist]

2 minutes ago, toucana said:

 

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSMC) is the largest company in Taiwan, and the most valuable semiconductor company in the world. Taiwan’s worldwide exports of integrated circuits amounted to $184 billion in 2022, and accounted for 25% of Taiwan’s GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

The status of TSMC as a world leader in Fabless manufacturing, operating as a ‘pure play’ company specialising in the semiconductor foundry industry, has in the past given Taiwan what some critics call a “Silicon Shield” against the threat of invasion or blockade by China.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250225-trump-s-chip-tariff-threats-raise-stakes-for-taiwan

As Taiwan produces more than half the world’s chips, and most of the really advanced ones too, there has always been strong bi-partisan support in the US Congress for Taiwan -  to protect it as a critical part of the global IC supply chain, and to prevent those resources from being expropriated  by China.

A week ago Trump announced tariff plans that would include a 25% levy on imported chips which are used in everything from smart phones to missiles. The problem here is that TSMC don’t ship that large a proportion of their output directly to the USA. They are a semiconductor foundry business who supply chips in bulk to other manufacturers in every part of the world  - including Apple who actually do much of their product assembly in China. A key factor would be whether levies are applied only to chips being shipped to  the United States, or also on chips in finished products.

Trump’s tariff plans are predicated on “redressing trade imbalances” and “encouraging companies to move manufacturing back to the United States”. As it happens TSMC has been opening up new semiconductor foundries around the world - including one in Arizona in 2024. But it’s a slow process that takes years to accomplish.

The real dilemma that TSMC faces however, is that moving their semiconductor foundries out of Taiwan and into other countries dilutes the value of the “Silicon Shield” that has helped to discourage China from invading Taiwan in recent years. Moving their foundries to the USA could simply encourage Donald Trump to throw Taiwan under the bus by allowing China to invade it.

The other part of Trump’s plans for Taiwan seem to involve the usual gangster-style grift of demanding that the Taiwanese “pay” for the “protection” they receive from the United States.

 

Aha, thanks for the extra background. But this will mean Taiwan will be well aware of the value of what they have and won't part with it in a hurry, at least.

Maybe, given the behaviour of the Trump administration TSMC would be wise to find reason to drag its feet over the Arizona plant. Because getting that operational for the top product lines could mean the end of Taiwan as an independent country. May even be worth having a major industrial "accident". 

[Ten oz]

18 hours ago, exchemist said:

I’m not so sure. I think Vance and Musk are the ones with the ideology and sense of mission. Trump is just a self-obsessed old man with megalomania and a score of grudges. I think those two are the puppet masters and Trump their useful idiot. Vance in particular strikes me as having the ideological drive that is the missing element in Trump for a real c.21st Hitler. And Vance will take over when Trump conks out. He may be the real deal. That speech in Munich was not scripted by Trump.

During Trump's first term 37 individuals were successfully prosecuted following an investigation into Russian influence/cooperation with Trump's 2016 campaign. Yes Trump is a narcissist and craves attention but those are no reason to dismiss the very real possibility that Trump is a Russian asset. 

No public figure in America has been of greater utility to Putin over the last 10yrs than Trump. in 2016 U.S. intelligence briefed then candidate Trump that Russia has hacked the DNC and was trying to manipulate the election. Trump responded by publicly insinuating that China might be responsible. This was years before JD Vance was involved in politics and before Elon Musk was publicly active in politics. 

Trump stood next to Putin in Helsinki, in his formal capacity as POTUS, and said he accepted Putin's word over that of U.S. Intelligence. As POTUS Trump attempt to extort Ukraine. Trump threatened to hold up weapons shipments unless Ukraine gave Trump propaganda against a political rival. That led to Trump's first impeachment. 

Now Trump has met with Putin to "negotiate" Ukraine's fate and Zelensky wasn't even invited. Trump brought Zelensky to DC with the expectation Zelensky would sign away mineral rights in trade for nothing. Just sign over Ukraine's domestic resources without any security assurance. Trump winked at the reporter who criticized Zelensky's attire and say by while his VP demanded Zelensky personally thank Trump. 

Trump calls it "The Russia Hoax" but I honestly cannot imagine what more a U.S. official could possibly do to appease Putin. Trump publicly discusses leaving NATO, praises Putin's strength, and is antagonistic to Putin's enemies. I think it is pretty clear that Trump is compromised to Putin. Trump isn't just some old man that likes to be flattered so he goes along with Musk & Vance. Trump has loyalty to Putin and is prepared to undermine U.S. interests for Putin. 

 

[exchemist]

14 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

During Trump's first term 37 individuals were successfully prosecuted following an investigation into Russian influence/cooperation with Trump's 2016 campaign. Yes Trump is a narcissist and craves attention but those are no reason to dismiss the very real possibility that Trump is a Russian asset. 

No public figure in America has been of greater utility to Putin over the last 10yrs than Trump. in 2016 U.S. intelligence briefed then candidate Trump that Russia has hacked the DNC and was trying to manipulate the election. Trump responded by publicly insinuating that China might be responsible. This was years before JD Vance was involved in politics and before Elon Musk was publicly active in politics. 

Trump stood next to Putin in Helsinki, in his formal capacity as POTUS, and said he accepted Putin's word over that of U.S. Intelligence. As POTUS Trump attempt to extort Ukraine. Trump threatened to hold up weapons shipments unless Ukraine gave Trump propaganda against a political rival. That led to Trump's first impeachment. 

Now Trump has met with Putin to "negotiate" Ukraine's fate and Zelensky wasn't even invited. Trump brought Zelensky to DC with the expectation Zelensky would sign away mineral rights in trade for nothing. Just sign over Ukraine's domestic resources without any security assurance. Trump winked at the reporter who criticized Zelensky's attire and say by while his VP demanded Zelensky personally thank Trump. 

Trump calls it "The Russia Hoax" but I honestly cannot imagine what more a U.S. official could possibly do to appease Putin. Trump publicly discusses leaving NATO, praises Putin's strength, and is antagonistic to Putin's enemies. I think it is pretty clear that Trump is compromised to Putin. Trump isn't just some old man that likes to be flattered so he goes along with Musk & Vance. Trump has loyalty to Putin and is prepared to undermine U.S. interests for Putin. 

 

Yes you may be right there. 

But why do all these other guys like Vance also go along with the Putin love-in? There has to be some kind of ideology, surely?

[MSC]

48 minutes ago, exchemist said:

Aha, thanks for the extra background. But this will mean Taiwan will be well aware of the value of what they have and won't part with it in a hurry, at least.

Maybe, given the behaviour of the Trump administration TSMC would be wise to find reason to drag its feet over the Arizona plant. Because getting that operational for the top product lines could mean the end of Taiwan as an independent country. May even be worth having a major industrial "accident". 

This may actually be a point of contention between Trump and Musk in the future. Trump essentially trying to bully his way to a sweetheart deal for that silicone shield, remove it from Taiwan, sell them out anyway, VS Musk who may not want to lose access to those chips for his businesses.

I don't think it's as simple as removing the chip manufacturing to America though. Isn't it the minerals Taiwan has access to that really provides that shield? 

[TheVat]

6 hours ago, exchemist said:

strategic interest Trump has in Taiwan is that it has, in TSMC, a unique semiconductor supplier, providing a lot of the high end chips advanced IT hardware requires.  Rachman says the Taiwanese government is coming under pressure (tariff threats again) to sell a major stake in this business to a US manufacturer, allowing manufacture in the USA.   Once this is achieved, Trump can cut Taiwan adrift and Xi can have it.

Started to reply then saw @toucana helpful post, plus your reply.  Well, I have a theory that putting a chip fab in Arizona was something the Taiwanese went for because it would make the process very slow - chip printing requires a lot of water, so Arizona is actually a terrible location.  With present declining water table and population growth fighting for every liter, the AZ fab might never happen and Taiwan can make sad faces and regretful noises that they were unable to export their most SOTA fabrication systems.  This way, they keep their core competency at home, and maintain the Silicon Shield they have.

5 minutes ago, MSC said:

don't think it's as simple as removing the chip manufacturing to America though. Isn't it the minerals Taiwan has access to that really provides that shield? 

It's their advanced (and carefully guarded) printing methods, is what I've heard.  

[exchemist]

8 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Started to reply then saw @toucana helpful post, plus your reply.  Well, I have a theory that putting a chip fab in Arizona was something the Taiwanese went for because it would make the process very slow - chip printing requires a lot of water, so Arizona is actually a terrible location.  With present declining water table and population growth fighting for every liter, the AZ fab might never happen and Taiwan can make sad faces and regretful noises that they were unable to export their most SOTA fabrication systems.  This way, they keep their core competency at home, and maintain the Silicon Shield they have.

It's their advanced (and carefully guarded) printing methods, is what I've heard.  

I love it! That would be a masterstroke of very Chinese, face-saving, denial! 😁

Is "Silicon Shield" a thing, in Taiwanese politics?  It's a neat image. 

Edited 23 hours ago by exchemist

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

Started to reply then saw @toucana helpful post, plus your reply.  Well, I have a theory that putting a chip fab in Arizona was something the Taiwanese went for because it would make the process very slow - chip printing requires a lot of water, so Arizona is actually a terrible location.  With present declining water table and population growth fighting for every liter, the AZ fab might never happen and Taiwan can make sad faces and regretful noises that they were unable to export their most SOTA fabrication systems.  This way, they keep their core competency at home, and maintain the Silicon Shield they have.

Though Intel has multiple fabs in Arizona. They are under scrutiny for water use but have invested in water reclamation facilities. Not sure how well that works in practice, though.

1 hour ago, exchemist said:

Is "Silicon Shield" a thing, in Taiwanese politics?  It's a neat image. 

The idea is used and I think was heavily popularized in the last 5 years or so. But the thinking about its effectiveness has been evolving with different discussions happening in the political, academic and business spheres.

[Ten oz]

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

Yes you may be right there. 

But why do all these other guys like Vance also go along with the Putin love-in? There has to be some kind of ideology, surely?

Greed doesn't require any greater ideology. Musk and Vance are simply trying to maximize their own wealth and influence. They are to self absorbed to care whether or not Trump is a Russian asset. 

 

[Alex_Krycek]

18 hours ago, toucana said:

 

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSMC) is the largest company in Taiwan, and the most valuable semiconductor company in the world. Taiwan’s worldwide exports of integrated circuits amounted to $184 billion in 2022, and accounted for 25% of Taiwan’s GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

The status of TSMC as a world leader in Fabless manufacturing, operating as a ‘pure play’ company specialising in the semiconductor foundry industry, has in the past given Taiwan what some critics call a “Silicon Shield” against the threat of invasion or blockade by China.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250225-trump-s-chip-tariff-threats-raise-stakes-for-taiwan

As Taiwan produces more than half the world’s chips, and most of the really advanced ones too, there has always been strong bi-partisan support in the US Congress for Taiwan -  to protect it as a critical part of the global IC supply chain, and to prevent those resources from being expropriated  by China.

A week ago Trump announced tariff plans that would include a 25% levy on imported chips which are used in everything from smart phones to missiles. The problem here is that TSMC don’t ship that large a proportion of their output directly to the USA. They are a semiconductor foundry business who supply chips in bulk to other manufacturers in every part of the world  - including Apple who actually do much of their product assembly in China. A key factor would be whether levies are applied only to chips being shipped to  the United States, or also on chips in finished products.

Trump’s tariff plans are predicated on “redressing trade imbalances” and “encouraging companies to move manufacturing back to the United States”. As it happens TSMC has been opening up new semiconductor foundries around the world - including one in Arizona in 2024. But it’s a slow process that takes years to accomplish.

The real dilemma that TSMC faces however, is that moving their semiconductor foundries out of Taiwan and into other countries dilutes the value of the “Silicon Shield” that has helped to discourage China from invading Taiwan in recent years. Moving their foundries to the USA could simply encourage Donald Trump to throw Taiwan under the bus by allowing China to invade it.

The other part of Trump’s plans for Taiwan seem to involve the usual gangster-style grift of demanding that the Taiwanese “pay” for the “protection” they receive from the United States.

 

Dealin' Donny does what his number one donor, Elon, wants.

And big brain Elon would love a slice of TSMC.

[exchemist]

I see there are now reports that Hegseth has told the US Military Cyber Command to stop all work on the Russian target, and that analysts have been not to report, or follow up reports, of Russian threats. Can anyone corroborate this?

 If true, it can only be because Trump has received assurances from Putin that the USA is no longer going to be a target for Russian cyber activity.  This would leave Russia free to focus on Europe. No doubt we in Europe can look forward to more undersea cable-cutting, placing of bombs in airfreight, mysterious fires at factories  and cyber attacks on social services and power networks.

While Trump and Vance laugh and cheer from the sidelines.   

[toucana]

3 hours ago, exchemist said:

I see there are now reports that Hegseth has told the US Military Cyber Command to stop all work on the Russian target, and that analysts have been not to report, or follow up reports, of Russian threats. Can anyone corroborate this?

This is the most detailed reporting I can find:

https://therecord.media/hegseth-orders-cyber-command-stand-down-russia-planning

Quote

 

“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Hegseth gave the instruction to Cyber Command chief Gen. Timothy Haugh, who then informed the organization's outgoing director of operations, Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Ryan Heritage, of the new guidance, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

The order does not apply to the National Security Agency, which Haugh also leads, or its signals intelligence work targeting Russia, the sources said.”

 

The scope of this instruction is unclear

Quote

 

"The implications of Hegesth’s guidance on the command’s personnel is uncertain. If it applies to its digital warriors focused on Russia, the decision would only affect hundreds of people, including members of the roughly 2,000 strong Cyber National Mission Force and the Cyber Mission Force. That is collectively made up of 5,800 personnel taken from the armed services and divided into teams that conduct offensive and defensive operations in cyberspace. It is believed a quarter of the offensive units are focused on Russia.

However, if the guidance extends to areas like intelligence and analysis or capabilities development, the number of those impacted by the edict grows significantly."

 

 

[MSC]

4 hours ago, exchemist said:

true, it can only be because Trump has received assurances from Putin that the USA is no longer going to be a target for Russian cyber activity.  This would leave Russia free to focus on Europe. No doubt we in Europe can look forward to more undersea cable-cutting, placing of bombs in airfreight, mysterious fires at factories  and cyber attacks on social services and power networks.

While Trump and Vance laugh and cheer from the sidelines

Or it's to encourage more cyber attacks in the United States, on the understanding they will be done for pro-Trump and pro-Putin reasons and objectives. At the very least expect more Russian propaganda and misinformation to fill the social media space unchallenged. 

I've also heard rumors that a lot of Republican politicians are being threatened with death now if they don't toe the party line. Considering that any threat reported would go straight to Trump's FBI, I actually don't doubt it. 

[TheVat]

If this wasn't the Putin Stooges admin , I would wonder if this was some clever maneuver to throw Russia off the scent of some other covert operation.  But we know when a Trumpista does something that appears stupid, it is just as it appears.  And you can count on optics and timing that make any action they take even worse...like standing down Cyber Com right after the Kremlin goes on a gloating bender over the Zelensky smackdown.  

26 minutes ago, MSC said:

I've also heard rumors that a lot of Republican politicians are being threatened with death now if they don't toe the party line. Considering that any threat reported would go straight to Trump's FBI, I actually don't doubt it. 

Heard that rumor in the form of threats against their families, which fits the mobster template that Trump often uses.  From what I've seen of Trump, I wouid imagine that career death wouid be all the threat he needs.  Your next election will see you running for dog catcher in Podunk.  And you'll lose!

[dimreepr]

29 minutes ago, MSC said:

Or it's to encourage more cyber attacks in the United States, on the understanding they will be done for pro-Trump and pro-Putin reasons and objectives. At the very least expect more Russian propaganda and misinformation to fill the social media space unchallenged. 

I've also heard rumors that a lot of Republican politicians are being threatened with death now if they don't toe the party line. Considering that any threat reported would go straight to Trump's FBI, I actually don't doubt it. 

Wouldn't it be great, if we found a way to get along

If it takes a bully, who am I to argue...