American Foreign Policy; Be a complete bullying a******

[toucana]

On 3/2/2025 at 9:13 AM, exchemist said:

Given the tactics of this administration to flood the zone with shit, it's all too easy to fail to notice things that are not eye-catching but nevertheless significant.  Does anyone know more about this pressuring of Taiwan on semiconductors?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) just paid a $100 billion 'protection fee' to USA.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/13/tech/taiwan-tsmc-us-investment-reactions-intl-hnk/index.html

The company said it was the biggest such investment in the US ever made by a non-American firm. TSMC had previously received $3.9 billion in subsidies from USA during the Biden administration to finance the construction of three chip fabrication plants in Arizona under the terms of the bipartisan Chips Act which allocated $39 billion in federal funding to boost domestic chip production.

Along with the additional three manufacturing facilities, the new investment also promised two chip packaging plants and a research and development centre to improve the production process technology.

The island democracy’s former President Ma Ying-jeou wasted no time in accusing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of “selling TSMC” to Trump as a “protection fee.” But others appear less concerned. Fred Lin, a finance industry professional, said he believed TSMC came to this decision prudently.

Quote

“Who doesn’t pay protection fees to the US? No doubt It is a form of protection fee, that we can understand, but that’s the reality of international politics,” he said.

 

[exchemist]

1 hour ago, toucana said:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) just paid a $100 billion 'protection fee' to USA.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/13/tech/taiwan-tsmc-us-investment-reactions-intl-hnk/index.html

The company said it was the biggest such investment in the US ever made by a non-American firm. TSMC had previously received $3.9 billion in subsidies from USA during the Biden administration to finance the construction of three chip fabrication plants in Arizona under the terms of the bipartisan Chips Act which allocated $39 billion in federal funding to boost domestic chip production.

Along with the additional three manufacturing facilities, the new investment also promised two chip packaging plants and a research and development centre to improve the production process technology.

The island democracy’s former President Ma Ying-jeou wasted no time in accusing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of “selling TSMC” to Trump as a “protection fee.” But others appear less concerned. Fred Lin, a finance industry professional, said he believed TSMC came to this decision prudently.

 

Hmm. But the trouble with Trump is that paying a protection fee gets you nowhere, as he simply pockets it -  and then reneges on whatever he promised you in return when it suits him. No agreement with Trump is worth the paper it is written on, still less any informal understanding.

The only thing Trump responds to is pressure. If you want an arrangement with Trump to stick, you need to make sure you have the means to squeeze his balls if he fucks around. It looks as though the Canadians have understood that and reacted appropriately. (They do of course make sure they don't do or say anything irrevocable, as they need to leave him "a ladder to climb down", which is part of Negotiating Skills 101.)

So if I were the Taiwanese, I'd make damned sure I held back something important that Trump needs. 

Edited March 14 by exchemist

[swansont]

2 hours ago, toucana said:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) just paid a $100 billion 'protection fee' to USA.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/13/tech/taiwan-tsmc-us-investment-reactions-intl-hnk/index.html

The company said it was the biggest such investment in the US ever made by a non-American firm. TSMC had previously received $3.9 billion in subsidies from USA during the Biden administration to finance the construction of three chip fabrication plants in Arizona under the terms of the bipartisan Chips Act which allocated $39 billion in federal funding to boost domestic chip production.

Along with the additional three manufacturing facilities, the new investment also promised two chip packaging plants and a research and development centre to improve the production process technology.

The island democracy’s former President Ma Ying-jeou wasted no time in accusing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of “selling TSMC” to Trump as a “protection fee.” But others appear less concerned. Fred Lin, a finance industry professional, said he believed TSMC came to this decision prudently.

 

The article is a bit thin on details, and the mention of the Chips Act means they had already committed to investing while Biden was president. And a pledge to construct new plants is not money in the hand - it could be a bluff to wait out Trump. You can always come up with excuses for construction delays. Permits and real estate acquisitions take time. More if the government’s bureaucracy has been gutted. They could also blame supply chain disruptions from tariffs and no construction workers from deportations - they could end up blaming Trump for all of the delays and end up not spending much at all.

Foxconn pledged to build a plant in Wisconsin during Trump’s first term, and then backed out. TSMC might end up doing something similar.

 

[MSC]

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

They do of course make sure they don't do or say anything irrevocable, as they need to leave him "a ladder to climb down", which is part of Negotiating Skills 101

101 and advanced concepts in high pressure situations. Hostage situations where the perp/perps has a high level of narcissism, negotiators in those circumstances will throw out more ladders than if the perps weren't highly narcissistic. Face saving is important for de-escalation. 

1 hour ago, swansont said:

Foxconn pledged to build a plant in Wisconsin during Trump’s first term, and then backed out. TSMC might end up doing something similar.

With the $100b pledged, they could theoretically start slowly spending that to show intent to follow through, and float the possibility of more investment down the line, then just wait 3+ years saying the next check "will be here in two weeks and it'll be the most beautiful check you've ever seen!" And keep your fingers crossed that Trump's attempt at establishing his dictatorship fails in 2028. 

Sometimes as well this is the best strategy for encouraging behavioural change. Reflect the narcissists behavior right back at them, commit the same wrongs, but against them. 

I literally do the same thing with my 4 year old daughter. If she's having a particularly bad day I just start acting like a toddler "that's my toy! You can't have it! I'm tired and hungry! Feed me! Blablabla" until she says "hey stop acting like a kid". She finds it funny but it gives her some perspective too. 

I'm thinking about having her run for president in 2028, the bar is so low now that a toddler is probably considered qualified now right?

Oh wait she won't even be a toddler then, even better!

[swansont]

8 minutes ago, MSC said:

With the $100b pledged, they could theoretically start slowly spending that to show intent to follow through, and float the possibility of more investment down the line, then just wait 3+ years saying the next check "will be here in two weeks and it'll be the most beautiful check you've ever seen!" And keep your fingers crossed that Trump's attempt at establishing his dictatorship fails in 2028. 

The Chips Act bit means they already had committed to some construction, so it’s possible some of this is agreeing to stuff they were already going to do, like Mexico and Canada did with the first round of tariffs. Then they slow roll anything past that, and, as you say, keep promising the next bit is just around the corner.

 

[exchemist]

57 minutes ago, MSC said:

101 and advanced concepts in high pressure situations. Hostage situations where the perp/perps has a high level of narcissism, negotiators in those circumstances will throw out more ladders than if the perps weren't highly narcissistic. Face saving is important for de-escalation. 

With the $100b pledged, they could theoretically start slowly spending that to show intent to follow through, and float the possibility of more investment down the line, then just wait 3+ years saying the next check "will be here in two weeks and it'll be the most beautiful check you've ever seen!" And keep your fingers crossed that Trump's attempt at establishing his dictatorship fails in 2028. 

Sometimes as well this is the best strategy for encouraging behavioural change. Reflect the narcissists behavior right back at them, commit the same wrongs, but against them. 

I literally do the same thing with my 4 year old daughter. If she's having a particularly bad day I just start acting like a toddler "that's my toy! You can't have it! I'm tired and hungry! Feed me! Blablabla" until she says "hey stop acting like a kid". She finds it funny but it gives her some perspective too. 

I'm thinking about having her run for president in 2028, the bar is so low now that a toddler is probably considered qualified now right?

Oh wait she won't even be a toddler then, even better!

Yes, that would be intelligent. And Chinese culture knows all about the importance of “face”, so this could indeed be part of a strategy for playing an angry buffoon like Trump.

[MSC]

9 minutes ago, exchemist said:

Yes, that would be intelligent. And Chinese culture knows all about the importance of “face”, so this could indeed be part of a strategy for playing an angry buffoon like Trump.

Honestly I kind of feel like if the progressives had adopted this approach more when pushing ethically grounded legal policies, they wouldn't have alienated so many voters. Fuck Trump's face, idc about his, but moderates and reasonable skeptics deserved more patience and forgiveness when it came to convincing them out of tribal thinking to be more inclusive of others. 

[exchemist]

35 minutes ago, MSC said:

Honestly I kind of feel like if the progressives had adopted this approach more when pushing ethically grounded legal policies, they wouldn't have alienated so many voters. Fuck Trump's face, idc about his, but moderates and reasonable skeptics deserved more patience and forgiveness when it came to convincing them out of tribal thinking to be more inclusive of others. 

Yes indeed. The Democrat party really should have put the brakes on to stop getting too far from Mr and Mrs Average. They seemed rather undisciplined, from my perspective across the Atlantic. 
 

They have some great people, e.g. Buttigieg, this Senator Schiff  guy and so on, but no coordination and no party discipline.

Edited March 14 by exchemist

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

Then they slow roll anything past that, and, as you say, keep promising the next bit is just around the corner.

The Musk approach to autonomous driving?

28 minutes ago, MSC said:

Fuck Trump's face, idc about his, but moderates and reasonable skeptics deserved more patience and forgiveness when it came to convincing them out of tribal thinking to be more inclusive of others. 

I am sympathetic to this stance, but big challenge in this field is that convincing folks or even establishing dialogue is increasingly difficult. I think the biggest failure is that many Dems assumed that facts and empathy can convince folks whereas the Reps leveraged fear and anger.

Where Dems were successful was when they built up fear of repression (i.e. rolling back protections of marginalized folks). That obviously does not resonate with Reps with the big exception of folks with what is called lived experience.

I am not sure how that issue could be resolved in the current communication landscape.

[MSC]

2 hours ago, CharonY said:

The Musk approach to autonomous driving

I thought it was the Trump approach to healthcare? 😂 

[CharonY]

Just now, MSC said:

I thought it was the Trump approach to healthcare? 😂 

Well Musk had at least something. The other one doesn't understand the concept of a concept of a plan.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, MSC said:

I thought it was the Trump approach to healthcare? 😂 

You’re thinking of infrastructure week…which will happen any time now

[MSC]

On 3/14/2025 at 11:10 AM, CharonY said:

I am not sure how that issue could be resolved in the current communication landscape

You and me both, this stuff used to be communicated through artistic mediums in ways that got through, but now all art comes with running commentary, most of it worthless commentary. 

Like most of our discussions here we round back to social media and how badly it has fractured and divided us all from trustable information and each other, or in some cases blinded us to it and each other. 

On 3/14/2025 at 11:10 AM, CharonY said:

Where Dems were successful was when they built up fear of repression (i.e. rolling back protections of marginalized folks). That obviously does not resonate with Reps with the big exception of folks with what is called lived experience.

 

On 3/14/2025 at 11:10 AM, CharonY said:

sympathetic to this stance, but big challenge in this field is that convincing folks or even establishing dialogue is increasingly difficult. I think the biggest failure is that many Dems assumed that facts and empathy can convince folks whereas the Reps leveraged fear and anger

I think the reps leveraged empathy too, but I think more than any human influence, people's own innate inner conflict with human nature being fueled by an unfeeling system of machines designed to keep us all focussed on a small screen, a personalized lense within which to view the world. I think if we were to account for all of human history, Carl Jung's theory of collective consciousness and the Internet as it is, if it is the reflection of the combined human psyche, should we be surprised that it is fractured, fucked up and at odds with itself, when as a species that's been our entire theme?

I keep coming back to the same question in my head? What can I do? What can we do? There are people making and carrying out plans that are creating more existential threats to us all. How far does this rabbit hole of authoritarianism and dictatorship go? Will there come a time when even talking on here puts us at risk or will their be bans of what we can and can't do online? Is believing defeat is certain, a self fulfilling prophecy or common sense? 

[exchemist]

6 hours ago, MSC said:

You and me both, this stuff used to be communicated through artistic mediums in ways that got through, but now all art comes with running commentary, most of it worthless commentary. 

Like most of our discussions here we round back to social media and how badly it has fractured and divided us all from trustable information and each other, or in some cases blinded us to it and each other. 

 

I think the reps leveraged empathy too, but I think more than any human influence, people's own innate inner conflict with human nature being fueled by an unfeeling system of machines designed to keep us all focussed on a small screen, a personalized lense within which to view the world. I think if we were to account for all of human history, Carl Jung's theory of collective consciousness and the Internet as it is, if it is the reflection of the combined human psyche, should we be surprised that it is fractured, fucked up and at odds with itself, when as a species that's been our entire theme?

I keep coming back to the same question in my head? What can I do? What can we do? There are people making and carrying out plans that are creating more existential threats to us all. How far does this rabbit hole of authoritarianism and dictatorship go? Will there come a time when even talking on here puts us at risk or will their be bans of what we can and can't do online? Is believing defeat is certain, a self fulfilling prophecy or common sense? 

Agree entirely with the analysis of you both. It's fundamentally social media that is doing the damage, (i) by enabling the views of any schmuck, however ignorant, to be aired across the globe,  (ii) by deliberately amplifying, via algorithms,  the most extreme and provocative of these and (iii) by targeting them to audiences the algorithm has identified as already receptive. The evil genius of modern populists like Trump has been to realise this early and use it.

The basic problem those of us who believe in liberal democracy face is that we are "centrist dads". In other words we are too moderate to be algorithm-catching. A couple of years ago my son gave me a mug inscribed "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that." I took it as a compliment, coming as it did from young man of 20, but to algorithm-driven social media that kind of sentiment is not going to get redistributed to millions. We are people who communicate - and therefore think - in paragraphs, not 140 characters. 

The best mode of pushback my be via a countercultural movement. Americans, being such indvidualists, are very good at that. cf. Vietnam War era. We need music, art, publications and above all humour, to take the piss out of Trump, Vance, Musk and co. They have to become seen as deeply uncool. London is doing its bit against Musk, with a pirate poster campaign with joke ads on the Underground and at bus stops for the swasticar ("Goes from 0 to 1939 in 3 secs"), a spoof fragrance with a swastika on the bottle called "Elon's Musk", picturing his underarm as he makes the Nazi salute with the strapline "parfum 1939" with"pour wankers" underneath, and so on.  

If the USA had a parliamentary system, one would look to the Leader of the Opposition to play a central role in formally opposing what is going on and getting key figures in the party to give interviews and speeches with a coordinated series of messages designed to build up support from the electorate. But the Democrat party seems leaderless and totally uncoordinated at the moment. What's become of the Lincoln Project these days?  

[iNow]

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

think - in paragraphs, not 140 characters. 

More like ten second TikTok’s. 

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

the Democrat party seems leaderless and totally uncoordinated at the moment

They’ve always for the last few decades been a far broader tent welcoming cohorts that often have directly conflicting views and desires so part of the challenge is that pleasing one often angers another.

They try to be all things to all people which makes them weaker overall in fights where a unified front and clear message stated consistently with one voice is required. 

Even if none of that were true, they also far too often allow the opposition to dictate the narrative bc they lack the same media ecosystem that the right has been building out for years with the help of extremely wealthy benefactors. 

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

What's become of the Lincoln Project these days?  

They’re still around but the reach is small and the messages often lost in the noise. Their message has also coarsened in an attempt to better capture the algorithm you cited. 
 

 

[MSC]

3 hours ago, exchemist said:

What's become of the Lincoln Project these days?  

They are still alive and kicking if that's what you mean. You'll hear more from them come the midterms I reckon. As of now I think the Democrats, old guard Republicans and independents are all still reeling from Trump's win and are currently trying to latch onto several of Trump's fucked up actions since returning to office, hoping one will be the scandal that will turn Trump's support upside down. Relying on the mistakes of your enemies, to win, is a very dangerous strategy. 

3 hours ago, exchemist said:

Agree entirely with the analysis of you both. It's fundamentally social media that is doing the damage, (i) by enabling the views of any schmuck, however ignorant, to be aired across the globe,  (ii) by deliberately amplifying, via algorithms,  the most extreme and provocative of these and (iii) by targeting them to audiences the algorithm has identified as already receptive. The evil genius of modern populists like Trump has been to realise this early and use it

The ghost in the machine sounds more like a poltergeist. It was actually studying this technology that led me to develop some of my own theories within philosophy and psychology. To put it simply, this technology is capable of individual contextual evaluation through dialogical psychoanalysis and developing a model of you. There is a catch though, it's psychoanalysing who you are telling it you are, not who you actually are. There is an episode of Black mirror where the protagonists fiance or boyfriend dies, and is replaced (at her ordering it) an Android that is supposed to look and think like the deceased person, based on their online profile. The android found sadistic jokes funny, when the real life person never did, they just responded "lol" to online content which made them uncomfortable. 

This leads us to a problem due to people's attitudes when it comes to online communication. Psychologically we don't treat it the same way as in-person communication or even writing a letter to a specific person. It lowers our inhibitions, makes us more likely to not see the humanity in other people and treat them like bots on a screen. I'd argue that for some people it may even lower their inhibitions more than if they were just drunk. This electronic output from these screens, this mix of sensory data, impacts our endocrine system in ways we don't fully comprehend. The reason for us centrist dads that are harder for the algorithm to put into a box, we are better at practicing diet control of what we consume and who we tell the system we are. I mean literally I give it five minutes after posting this for me to have ads about literal diet control for food because these things really don't understand what it means to be human or even awareness. It's flawed as we are flawed. 

Got more but need a break to charge phone. 

[TheVat]

18 hours ago, MSC said:

How far does this rabbit hole of authoritarianism and dictatorship go? Will there come a time when even talking on here puts us at risk or will their be bans of what we can and can't do online? Is believing defeat is certain, a self fulfilling prophecy or common sense? 

Been trying to keep Tr-, erm, 47, out of my head at least one day per week.  But here i am, saying at least this:  in cultural/digital conflicts, defeat seems to me to be a result of belief, i.e. self-fulfilling only when decent people become passive and escapist (iow, do nothing).

I'm leaning optimistic that online restrictions will not succeed too well, but also trying to brush up on my code talk (as Russians and others in dictatorships learn to do) in case it becomes useful to evade gubmint keyword monitoring and such.  And as @exchemist notes, Americans are pretty good at getting oppositional on the battlefield of culture, and refusing to toe any given party line.  

 

7 hours ago, MSC said:

To put it simply, this technology is capable of individual contextual evaluation through dialogical psychoanalysis and developing a model of you.

Har!  

11 hours ago, exchemist said:

We need music, art, publications and above all humour, to take the piss out of Trump, Vance, Musk and co. They have to become seen as deeply uncool.

Happening as we speak, but of course there's the whole silo problem with SM, so art and wit are going to need packing into armour-piercing shells.  

[MSC]

12 hours ago, exchemist said:

The best mode of pushback my be via a countercultural movement. Americans, being such indvidualists, are very good at that. cf. Vietnam War era. We need music, art, publications and above all humour, to take the piss out of Trump, Vance, Musk and co. They have to become seen as deeply uncool. London is doing its bit against Musk, with a pirate poster campaign with joke ads on the Underground and at bus stops for the swasticar ("Goes from 0 to 1939 in 3 secs"), a spoof fragrance with a swastika on the bottle called "Elon's Musk", picturing his underarm as he makes the Nazi salute with the strapline "parfum 1939" with"pour wankers" underneath, and so on.  

Whatever social counter movement that could work, how does it pierce through the walls around people's personal Internet domes and then also through their mental defenses?

I fear that the effects of not only being in a highly polarized time, but just how long it has now been this polarized, and based on the amount of mutual trolling of the opposing sides, we are in a goading and provoking phase and I fear even more that without experiencing the acute and devastating consequences of shared personal loss over time, the sort of loss people on both sides of war experience, without that I just don't know how people can come together. Where Trump is concerned and others like him, there are probably a whole bunch of people who while against him now, are gonna become "if you can't beat em, joinem" types, out of self preservation. Some of them probably already have.