Super-China, how will western democracies respond?

[Martin]

emergence of economic, technological, military Superpower China is important to understand and think about

 

this is a longterm problem (but with immediate present aspects too)

 

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/11/china-book-reviews.html

books are coming out about this

and so the New York Review of Books has articles like this

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18437

"

Focus on China is overdue. For the last quarter of a century its economy has been growing by over 9 percent a year, increasing eightfold. However, it is not just this long-sustained hyper-growth rate that amazes and alarms the observer. It is the size of the economy which is growing. China's population is officially estimated at 1.3 billion, but is probably larger—one fifth of all the people in the world. This makes its rise much more important than that, say, of Japan in the 1960s. From the economic point of view its cheap labor is much more abundant, so its cost advantage will not quickly be eliminated. The size of an economy obviously matters, too, in measuring power. The Chinese economy, in terms of the purchasing power of the Chinese people, is about two thirds the size of the US economy.[2] If it continues to grow at 9 percent a year, it will overtake the US by 2014. Lee Kwan Yu of Singapore believes that the rise of China will shift the balance of power back to the East for the first time since Portuguese caravels arrived there in the sixteenth century."

 

So if Lee Kwan Yu is right we are looking at something that has not been seen for at least 400, maybe 500, years. or maybe has not been seen ever. this is very interesting (and of course dangerous) development needing intelligent and creative responses from western leaders and educated public opinion

[Pangloss]

I heard another statistic the other day that surprised me: There are more people learning to speak English in China than there are people in the entire United States. This is a good companion statistic to go along with the one that's becoming well known about how their middle class is as big as the entire pop of the US.

 

Today they're building toys and electronics, but it's not hard to see the writing on the wall. They're already launching flights to orbit and planning a trip to the moon. How long before they have stealth fighters and bombers? They've already been caught stealing stealth technology.

[ecoli]

Today they're building toys and electronics, but it's not hard to see the writing on the wall. They're already launching flights to orbit and planning a trip to the moon. How long before they have stealth fighters and bombers? They've already been caught stealing stealth technology.

 

Not long at all. It wouldn't be such a big deal - after all periods of economic growth are normal, but there just so damn hostile to the rest of the world. I have a friend that just returned from a trip to China, and she was surprised how unfriendly people were because of her white skin. They sure liked her money, though.

 

I think a big problem is that the US has become used to being the only super-power, and we don't know how to deal with an emerging power, nobody wants a repeat of the cold war, but how much can we give with still protecting our economic and political interests? Some would say we have already gone too far.

[Pangloss]

Hostility at the individual level? That's the first I've heard of that, and I know a few people who've been to China recently. Not saying you're wrong, it's just the first I've heard of it. I'm a little surprised, and I'd be interested in hearing more about that.

 

The recent outrage over Japanese textbooks would seem to fit your suggested pattern.

[TwistOfCain]

I believe this could result in a final "world war". China is in a good position to fight a war if someone crazy gets in power. However, they did release a plan to decrease military size earlier this year. I'd rather see China helping the world instead of taking it over, and I'm for the side of it more likely helping it. China is slowly catching up with us, and in a some ways, I'm happy to see the change of power from west back to east.

[Sayonara]

This thread may help. Or it might not, but the topic reminded me of it.

[ecoli]

I believe this could result in a final "world war". China is in a good position to fight a war if someone crazy gets in power. However, they did release a plan to decrease military size earlier this year. I'd rather see China helping the world instead of taking it over, and I'm for the side of it more likely helping it. China is slowly catching up with us, and in a some ways, I'm happy to see the change of power from west back to east.

 

I'm not... China, despite it's economic growth is retaining the production aspects that the US lost duing the 50's and 60's. China stole US jobs on the production level and now will be stealing US jobs in other levels as well.

 

The US, as a service and consumer-base economy can't stand up to that, which worries me.

[Sisyphus]

I doubt there will be another cold war, just because both China and the United States have far too much to lose economically for there to be even Vietnam-like indirect military conflicts. Also, China is becoming more friendly to the West, not less, albeit very slowly. Rivalry is inevitable, just like between any two nations, but conflict is not. That being said, the major east Asian powers (China, Japan, Taiwan, North and South Korea) are clearly in a very delicate balance, which could be catastrophic if upset too much. However, it's quite clear that nobody wants war (not even N. Korea), and all will go to great lengths to avoid it.

[ecoli]

I doubt there will be another cold war, just because both China and the United States have far too much to lose economically for there to be even Vietnam-like indirect military conflicts.

 

Exactly why China will think it'll be able to push the US into giving into free trade agreements and the like, which will hurt US economy, if avoid military conflict.

[bascule]

When I hear that 80% of China's upcoming generation is male for some reason I just can't keep the words "cannon fodder" out of my head...

[Pangloss]

80%? Is that right? I've heard it's bad but that sounds a little extreme to me. I vaguely recall a PBS show stating 60%, but I've not heard that number before.

 

Could be India I'm thinking of.

[TwistOfCain]

I'm not... China' date=' despite it's economic growth is retaining the production aspects that the US lost duing the 50's and 60's. China stole US jobs on the production level and now will be stealing US jobs in other levels as well.

 

The US, as a service and consumer-base economy can't stand up to that, which worries me.[/quote']

 

 

I am because the US has been in power for a while, and we're starting to annoy other countries. In some ways, I'm happy to see China be the world Super Power. In others, I'm not. I'm pretty much speculating on them starting a war, not saying they definately will. China is probably not likely to do that, but instead build their economy.

[bascule]

80%? Is that right?

 

I have no idea; it's hearsay coming from a polysci major I know.

 

I've heard it's bad but that sounds a little extreme to me. I vaguely recall a PBS show stating 60%, but I've not heard that number before.

 

Well, for now, feel free to consider that particular statistic as bullshit (I can't find any sources to confirm or deny it with a cursory Googling), but I think it's safe to say that the population of Chinese adolescents and young adults is predominantly male.

[ecoli]

I am because the US has been in power for a while, and we're starting to annoy other countries. In some ways, I'm happy to see China be the world Super Power. In others, I'm not. I'm pretty much speculating on them starting a war, not saying they definately will. China is probably not likely to do that, but instead build their economy.

 

I'm not saying the the Us not being a super-power is a bad thing. I just can see China being a super power as beneficial to the US.

[Mokele]

According to Wikipedia, the population ratio of males to females overall is 1.06, and is about 1.12 for individuals under 15 (1.06 for 15-64).

[Phi for All]

I have no idea; it's hearsay coming from a polysci major I know.

From the CIA World Factbook:

China: total population 1,306,313,812 (July 2005 est.)

Age structure:

0-14 years: 21.4% (male 148,134,928/female 131,045,415)

15-64 years: 71% (male 477,182,072/female 450,664,933)

65 years and over: 7.6% (male 47,400,282/female 51,886,182) (2005 est.)

 

Males: 672,717,282 Females: 633,596,530

 

Moral: never trust a polysci major unless they work for the CIA.

 

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

[john5746]

Moral: never trust a polysci major unless they work for the CIA.

 

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

 

This info is a "slam dunk" according to the CIA.

 

I think China also will have a problem with an aging population. They will become number one though. I guess America needs some guidance from Europe in dealing with becoming second class.

[ecoli]

I guess America needs some guidance from Europe in dealing with becoming second class.

 

Oh snap!

[bascule]

Moral: never trust a polysci major unless they work for the CIA.

 

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

 

Yikes, someone infected me with a bullshit meme and I tried to spread it. I hate it when that happens.

 

Let it be known throughout the forums that the population of Chinese children aged 0-14 is 53% male, not 80%!

[Pangloss]

Your point is still valid, Basc. A country that large with even a 1.06 ratio is in for serious, serious problems over the long haul. You're talking about potentially hundreds of thousands of men without partners.

[john5746]

Your point is still valid, Basc. A country that large with even a 1.06 ratio is in for serious, serious problems over the long haul. You're talking about potentially hundreds of thousands of men without partners.

 

Mail order brides?

[ecoli]

Mail order brides?

 

Or at least putting up children, esp. girls for adoption.

[john5746]

Oh, that was a tongue-in-cheek remark as to a solution. As in chinese men can import mail order brides, instead of the other way round.

 

I think the causes are well known.

[Pangloss]

Oh my... American women being imported to China as mail order brides... talk about startling reality checks.....