Alarmism

[bascule]

 

WARNING!!! YOU MUST READ THIS!!! Klaxon, the internet Chicken Little, raises the alarm for each and every paranoid conspiracy theory, Federal Big-Brother scheme, internet hoax, and latest computer virus. No black helicopter alert is so ludicrous, no urban legend so implausible, that he will not pass it along as accepted fact (in ALL CAPS with multiple exclamation marks). Congratulations, you are recipient 16,747 of today's Urban Myth. CAUTION: Often Klaxon knowingly posts false alarms to foment mischief.

 

So I've been noticing about 2 or 3 of these "peak oil" alarmists posting here quite regularly. Is anyone else as annoyed with them as I am?

 

They seem to be alleging that market forces alone will be unable to bring about a technological solution to the problem, and will post for you the opinions of several ridiculously underqualified people to corroborate this claim.

 

As a skeptic, I have to ask: how can you possibly know? The problem of oil depletion is so immensely complex that I would contend it's really anybody's guess as to how it will affect us in the future.

 

I will certainly agree that if we do nothing about the problem, all of society will collapse. However, that can be said of a multitude of problems humanity encounters.

 

Fear, Uncertainty, Distrust (FUD) is the colloquial classification of this kind of information...

 

Fear - One of the energy infrastructures that humanity relies upon is reaching its end-of-life

 

Uncertainty - What will happen as oil outputs drop worldwide? Will society collapse?

 

Distrust - Everyone presently in a position of power able to deal with this problem is clearly incompetent! Human technological advancement will not provide us with a way to move away from the present oil infrastructure.

 

FUD forms the basis of a pathological meme; it uses fear to motivate people into spreading it. Never mind the accuracy or completeness of the information, as long as it makes you afraid you'll want to warn others of the impending doom!!! That is, unless you're a level-headed skeptic.

 

And in the end, that's all the peak oil fanatics are trying to do... spread FUD. In fact, most of them I've talked to seem convinced that there is no solution to the problem. So the alarmism doesn't even serve to motivate a move to solution, instead all they seem to want to spread is the idea that our present standard of living will be abolished following oil depletion.

 

Working in climate science I am all to familiar with alarmism. Global warming alarmism has been enormously successful as a pathological meme. About the only benefit of it, as far as I can tell, is that it has ensured that our research group has remained funded

 

That's good and all, but the drawbacks are likewise immense. Sadly, the largely incorrect information which has propagated along with the pathological meme has lead to skewed climate science reporting as a whole. The meme, not science, shapes not only the layman's perspective of the issue, but a great deal of policy decisions as well.

 

I'm a liberal progressive and I hate most of what Bush is doing, but I wholeheartedly support his approach to the global warming issue. He's echoing the words of some of the top climate scientists in this country when he claims that more research is needed because our understanding of the problem is incomplete.

 

Anyway, as a skeptic pathological memes are a great source of frustration to me, and I needed to air some of said frustration.

[ecoli]

When peak oil is involved, my opinion is that it's better to expect the worst and overprepare, then to blow it off and get screwed in the long run.

[funzone36]

I admit I am one of those peak oil members. But read this. I am confident that the oil peak will happen because so far, the arguments against peak oil has been weak.

[ecoli]

I admit I am one of those peak oil members. But read this. I am confident that the oil peak will happen because so far, the arguments against peak oil has been weak.

 

and tainted by the people who would take a financial hit from a change to alt. fuels.

[Mokele]

However, Bascule seems to be more annoyed (as I am) with the tone of such things. There's a difference between "Well, one day oil prices are going to reach an unfeasible level" and "OMG, PEAK OIL, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!".

 

Frankly, the general alarmist tone has been one of the two reasons why I haven't participated in any of the "Peak Oil" threads (the other being the *Annoying* tendency to quote huge sections of text and do point-by point refutations of every little thing; I've seen doctoral theses shorter than some of these posts).

 

Mokele

[ecoli]

However' date=' Bascule seems to be more annoyed (as I am) with the tone of such things. There's a difference between "Well, one day oil prices are going to reach an unfeasible level" and "OMG, PEAK OIL, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!".

 

Frankly, the general alarmist tone has been one of the two reasons why I haven't participated in any of the "Peak Oil" threads (the other being the *Annoying* tendency to quote huge sections of text and do point-by point refutations of every little thing; I've seen doctoral theses shorter than some of these posts).

 

Mokele[/quote']

 

Fair enough, Mokele. While I agree with you with the tone, and especially with the copy-paste thing, I can't ignore the fact that I see peak oil as a problem, even if PeakOilMan is the only one who has presented clear data on the problem.

 

I feel that ignoring it because the topic seems to attract "undesireables" is folly, however. The topic should be a addresses appropriately and seriously.

[Pangloss]

I agree with Bascule on this. It's like arguing about matters of faith like creationism. What's the point?

[ecoli]

I agree with Bascule on this. It's like arguing about matters of faith like creationism. What's the point?

 

I don't see the connection. Peak oil statistics are based off of science... I mean, as long as you're looking at good data.

[bascule]

However, Bascule seems to be more annoyed (as I am) with the tone of such things. There's a difference between "Well, one day oil prices are going to reach an unfeasible level" and "OMG, PEAK OIL, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!".

 

Bingo. I don't deny that our oil output is eventually going to start dropping each year as supplies are depleted. I certainly object to the assertions that this is a situation humanity is incapible of dealing with, or asserting outright that the problem won't be solved by market forces alone. I find the former to be laughably ridiculous and the latter to be groundless and overzealous.

 

The problem with alarmism is that the signal to noise (or should I say, signal to bullshit?) ratio drops dramatically. When people are spreading a meme out of fear they tend to be less discerning as to the validity of the arguments they are presenting as they would be if the discourse was motivated by sound reasoning rather than emotion.

 

The more misinformation that is presented to me the less likely I am to trust the source that presented it.

[ecoli]

Bingo. I don't deny that our oil output is eventually going to start dropping each year as supplies are depleted. I certainly object to the assertions that this is a situation humanity is incapible of dealing with, or asserting outright that the problem won't be solved by market forces alone. I find the former to be laughably ridiculous and the latter to be groundless and overzealous.

 

I don't it's the fact that humanity is incapable of dealing with it, I think we are just chosing to ignore it becuase we hope it will go away or that market forces will deal with it.

 

However, I beleive that, even if market forces are left to deal with the problem, it won't be enough, and that humanity needs to do more to promote alternative fuels then we are currently doing.

[navynuke]

When peak oil is involved, my opinion is that it's better to expect the worst and overprepare, then to blow it off and get screwed in the long run.

You can over prepare, if you spend a lot of money preparing for something that doesn't happen, like Y2K.

Having a plan or 2 won't cost much, but I think the best initial plan is to stop using so much of it now. That means lifestyle changes, and most of us Americans would rather have teeth removed without anesthesia than accept a lesser lifestyle.

[bascule]

I don't know about you, but where I live (in America), when gas spiked to $3/gallon post-Katrina something amazing happened: people started riding bikes again. That's not to say they ever stopped, but $3/gal gas made people realize that perhaps you don't have to use a car to go everywhere and that bikes are a healthier and sometimes even more convenient alternative (especially if you're going anywhere which gets swamped with cars)

 

Since that time, gas has gotten cheaper and the weather's gotten colder, and our brief flirtation with a more bicycle oriented society diminished. But I have no doubt that it will rise again with increasing oil prices.

[Phi for All]

I don't know about you, but where I live (in America), when gas spiked to $3/gallon post-Katrina something amazing happened: people started riding bikes again.

And did you notice the Grand Canyon-like dip in SUV sales? Suddenly American car-makers are all about hybridization. Dare I hope that my dream of suburban mag-lev train lines will soon be a reality?

[navynuke]

And did you notice the Grand Canyon-like dip in SUV sales? Suddenly American car-makers are all about hybridization. Dare I hope that my dream of suburban mag-lev train lines will soon be a reality?

Trains are perfect for major metropolitan areas, like the Denver area, Phoenix, SLC, etc. They work well back east and on the left coast where population density is high.

[Phi for All]

Trains are perfect for major metropolitan areas, like the Denver area, Phoenix, SLC, etc. They work well back east and on the left coast where population density is high.

A cousin in Germany works for a maglev train manufacturer and gave me a video some years back. Capable of 300+ mph, no pollution, no noise, no moving parts to wear out, no friction, rides on raised track 15 feet above regular road surfaces so no contact with street traffic, only needs 15 feet of width so they can usually go right alongside major thoroughfares, only the sections of track the train is riding on and the ones directly in front of it are energized, and the ride is so smooth they serve wine in glasses in the carpeted club car.

 

Maglevs would obviate the need for short commuter flights and actually be quicker and cheaper. They would also cut the overall cost of a light rail system over a long period because of less maintenance, lack of traffic contact and better pollution criteria.

 

I'm not alarmed. I actually love the fact that decreased fossil fuels is going to mean smarter alternatives.

[Pangloss]

I don't see the connection. Peak oil statistics are based off of science... I mean, as long as you're looking at good data.

 

Your caveat proves my point. The peak oil argument is based on assumptions which may or may not turn out to be the case.

 

Raising concerns about peak oil is a matter of science. Pounding the pulpit demanding that it's real, and stating that the world as we know it is going to end by a specific date, that is a matter of faith.

[Pangloss]

As exemplified by Peak Oil Man's signature:

 

2008 — World oil production begins to decline,

stockmarkets crash, airlines bankrupt, and the

Greater Depression begins!

http://www.eclipsenow.org

Download your free peak oil posters here.

 

And low, though ye walk through the valley of the shadow of death.... And don't forget to buy a poster!