Global warming is about to become worse

[herpguy]

As you know, us humans have been dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere for about 150 years. Now, larger hurricanes (even if they aren't triggered by global warming) are sucking up the water vapor resulting in less rain for the rainforest. Now, the rainforest is starting to release a lot of CO2 because many plants are beginning to die. Eventually, the rainforest will be releasing more CO2 than the oxygen it makes. It may seem like sci-fi but it's true.

[ecoli]

How about sources then? What makes your opinion worth anything, if you don't have any facts to back it up with?

[funzone36]

I believe him. Source:

 

http://www.livescience.com/environment/ap_051125_greenhouse_gas.html

http://www.livescience.com/environment/051124_rising_seas.html

 

Not sure why but I always seem to find sources so quickly.

[ecoli]

I believe him. Source:

 

http://www.livescience.com/environment/ap_051125_greenhouse_gas.html

http://www.livescience.com/environment/051124_rising_seas.html

 

Not sure why but I always seem to find sources so quickly.

 

not saying I don't believe him... its just that your respnsible for finding your own sources... otherwise, you should be posting in speculations.

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

http://www.scienceforums.net/forums/showthread.php?t=16739

[herpguy]

oh i forgot to put a link.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051124/sc_nm/environment_tipping_dc_4

 

There was another website with the a little more information, if i find it i'll post it.

[Martin]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,1650407,00.html

 

---exerpt from Guardian---

 

Pacific Atlantis: first climate change refugees

 

John Vidal, environment editor

Friday November 25, 2005

The Guardian

 

For more than 30 years the 980 people living on the six minute horseshoe-shaped Carteret atolls have battled the Pacific to stop salt water destroying their coconut palms and waves crashing over their houses. They failed.

Yesterday a decision was made that will make their group of low-lying islands literally go down in history. In the week before 150 countries meet in Montreal to discuss how to combat global warming and rising sea levels, the Carterets' people became the first to be officially evacuated because of climate change.

 

Starting as soon as money is available to the Papuan New Guinean regional government, 10 families at a time will be moved by the authorities to Bougainville, a larger island 62 miles away. Within two years the six Carterets, roughly the size of 80 football pitches and just 1.5 metres high, will be uninhabited and undefended. By 2015 they are likely to be completely submerged.

---endquote---

[bascule]

As you know, us humans have been dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere for about 150 years. Now, larger hurricanes (even if they aren't triggered by global warming) are sucking up the water vapor resulting in less rain for the rainforest.

 

Well, to address your little "even if they aren't triggered by global warming" part, I'd like to present this:

 

http://www.techcentralstation.com/091605F.html

 

A scientific team led by Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology today published findings in Science magazine. The team claimed to have found evidence in the historical record of both more tropical cyclones, such as Hurricane Katrina, but also a higher percentage of more intense ones.

 

This follows on the heels of Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Kerry Emanual proclaiming in the Aug. 4 on-line edition of Nature magazine that he had found evidence that global warming in the last 30 years was producing more intense cyclones.

 

The conclusion many draw from papers such as these is that anthropogenic global warming from the burning of fossil fuels by humans is causing more lethal storms. A closer look, though, reveals not human actions but rather natural cycles are the primary cause.

 

Much has already been written concerning the findings of Emanuel, and their potential shortcomings, both by myself and others. So, in this article, let's focus on the results this week in Science.

 

Webster and colleagues analyzed the occurrence of tropical systems of all strengths across the principal regions of the world's oceans where they form -- the North Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific, the Western Pacific, the Southwestern Pacific, and the North and South Indian Ocean basins. They limited their analysis to the period since 1970 -- the time since satellites were first used to monitor tropical cyclone development. During this same period, the sea surface temperature (SST) in these basins increased by about 0.5ºC (or just under 1ºF). The researchers sought to determine whether there were any changes in the patterns of hurricanes that could be related to the warmer SSTs.

 

Now, the rainforest is starting to release a lot of CO2 because many plants are beginning to die. Eventually, the rainforest will be releasing more CO2 than the oxygen it makes. It may seem like sci-fi but it's true.

 

I was under the impression that there were more trees on earth now than at any other time in the earth's history.

 

And be aware that CO₂ is one of the many forcings affecting the earth's radiative imbalance. Here is a chart:

 

[herpguy]

Well' date=' to address your little "even if they aren't triggered by global warming" part, I'd like to present this:

 

http://www.techcentralstation.com/091605F.html[/quote']

 

 

So, where's the proof? Also, this article was written on August 4, 2005, that's before Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (all with winds over over 175 m.p.h.). Lastly, Wilma was the strongest hurricane on record with pressure of 882 millibar.

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_7280.html?from=tropupd

 

7/10 of the top ten most intense hurricanes were in the last thirty years.

[bascule]

So, where's the proof?

 

There is no proof. That's the problem. The major limitations that prevent hurricanes from reaching their full potential includes vertical wind shear, dry air intrusion, and less than optimal outflow aloft in the upper portion of the hurricane circulation. In idealized hurricane modeling it is relatively easy to create hurricanes that attain their maximum intensity, since these limitations are not prescribed in the model initialization or boundary conditions. This is a key problem with some recent papers which were misinterpreted and overblown by the media to show an increase in intensity in recent years, most notably the Webster et. al paper recently published in Science.

 

In the real world, however, one or more of these limitations almost always exists (fortunately!). Hurricane Katrina is an example where a particularly effective outflow aloft, moist tropical air, and a lack of vertical wind shear, along with the elevated SSTs, pemitted the cyclone to attain a category 5 intensity.

 

Also, this article was written on August 4, 2005, that's before Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (all with winds over over 175 m.p.h.).

 

Where are you getting that date from?

 

http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050912/full/050912-11.html

 

The article says "September 15, 2005"

 

But obviously the analysis runs only through the 2004 hurricane season.

 

Lastly, Wilma was the strongest hurricane on record with pressure of 882 millibar.

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_7280.html?from=tropupd

 

Though the pressure of a hurricane is the best indicator of its strength since it can be precisely measured whereas winds have to be estimated, it is still important to note that it is actually the difference in the hurricane's pressure and that of its environment that actually gives it its strength. This difference in pressure is known as the "pressure gradient" and it is this change in pressure over a distance that causes wind. The bigger the change is, the faster the winds generated will be. If two hurricanes have the same minimum pressure, but one is in an area of higher ambient pressure than the other, that one is in fact stronger. That hurricane had to work harder, so to speak, to get its pressure that low, and its larger pressure gradient would make its winds faster. The Saffir-Simpson scale exists for a reason.

 

7/10 of the top ten most intense hurricanes were in the last thirty years.

 

7/10 of the top ten most intense hurricanes on record, with (mostly inaccurate) records dating back to the late 19th century.

[zyncod]

I was under the impression that there were more trees on earth now than at any other time in the earth's history.

 

That doesn't seem possible. Even forgetting people's impact on the environment, we have an entire continent without any trees on it. It seems like Pangaea, being concentrated around the equator in a warmer climate, would have many more trees than exist today. But the carbon sink of North American forests (which is actually much more important than rainforests) is thought to be approaching depletion.

[herpguy]

Oh, sorry about the date of the article. I saw something at the bottom of the page and jumped to the conclusion that it was when the article was published. It won't happen again.

The data of the hurricanes' strength was from this website:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

Watch Wilma, Rita, and Katrina's wind speed closely, you'll see that all three storms have max. sustained winds at 175 mph. However, according to the Weather Channel, wind speeds are measured by five and it is very likely that each storm's wind went oover 175 mph.

[bharatiyedu]

yeah waht he said isa true

 

i dont have any statics but i got some articale which is quiet relevant to the matter

 

The latest scientific data confirm that the earth's climate is rapidly changing. Global temperatures increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the course of the last century, and will likely rise even more rapidly in coming decades. The cause? A thickening layer of carbon dioxide pollution, mostly from power plants and automobiles, that traps heat in the atmosphere.

 

Scientists say that unless global warming emissions are reduced, average U.S. temperatures could rise another 3 to 9 degrees by the end of the century -- with far-reaching effects. Sea levels will rise, flooding coastal areas. Heat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more often. Disease-carrying mosquitoes will expand their range. And species will be pushed to extinction. As this page shows, many of these changes have already begun.

 

 

CLIMATE PATTERN CHANGES

 

Consequence: warmer temperatures

Average temperatures will rise, as will the frequency of heat waves.

 

Warning signs today

 

* Most of the United States has already warmed, in some areas by as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit. In fact, no state in the lower 48 states experienced below average temperatures in 2002. The last three five-year periods are the three warmest on record.

 

* Many places in North America had their hottest seasons or days on record in the late 1990s.

 

* Since 1980, the earth has experienced 19 of its 20 hottest years on record, with 2005 and 1998 tied for the hottest and 2002 and 2003 coming in second and third.

 

Consequence: drought and wildfire

Warmer temperatures could also increase the probability of drought. Greater evaporation, particularly during summer and fall, could exacerbate drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires.

 

Warning signs today

 

Wildfire

Greater evaporation as a result of global warming

could increase the risk of wildfires.

* The 1999-2002 national drought was one of the three most extensive droughts in the last 40 years.

 

* In 2002, the Western United States experienced its second worst wildfire season in the last 50 years; more than 7 million acres burned. Colorado, Arizona, and Oregon had their worst seasons.

 

* The period from April through June of 1998 was the driest three-month period in 104 years in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana.

 

* Dry conditions produced the worst wildfires in 50 years in Florida in 1998.

 

* April through July of 1999 was the driest four-month stretch in 105 years of record-keeping in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island.

 

* Montana, Colorado, and Kansas experienced severe dust storms in 2002, a product of dry conditions.

 

* September 2001 to February 2002 was the second driest six-month period on record for the Northeast.

 

Consequence: more intense rainstorms

Warmer temperatures increase the energy of the climatic system and lead to more intense rainfall at some times and in some areas.

 

Warning signs today

 

* National annual precipitation has increased between 5 and 10 percent since the early 20th century, largely the result of heavy downpours in some areas.

 

* Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts each got more than double their normal monthly rainfall in June 1998.

 

* Severe flooding in the Texas, Montana, and North Dakota during the summer of 2002 caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

 

 

HEALTH EFFECTS

 

Heat wave in Chicago

More frequent and more intensive heat waves could result in more heat-related deaths. Photo: Gary Braasch, Chicago, July 1995. See the World View of Global Warming website for more Gary Braasch photos illustrating the consequences of the changing climate.

 

Consequence: deadly heat waves and the spread of disease

More frequent and more intensive heat waves could result in more heat-related deaths. These conditions could also aggravate local air quality problems, already afflicting more than 80 million Americans. Global warming is expected to increase the potential geographic range and virulence of tropical diseases as well.

 

Warning signs today

 

* In 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe and more than 1500 deaths in India.

 

* More than 250 people died as a result of an intense heat wave that gripped most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States in 1999.

 

* Disease-carrying mosquitoes are spreading as climate shifts allow them to survive in formerly inhospitable areas. Mosquitoes that can carry dengue fever viruses were previously limited to elevations of 3,300 feet but recently appeared at 7,200 feet in the Andes Mountains of Colombia. Malaria has been detected in new higher-elevation areas in Indonesia.

 

 

WARMING WATER

 

Consequence: more powerful and dangerous hurricanes

Warmer water in the oceans pumps more energy into tropical storms, making them more intense and potentially more destructive.

 

Warning signs today

 

* The number of category 4 and 5 storms has greatly increased over the past 35 years, along with ocean temperature.

 

Consequence: melting glaciers, early ice thaw

Rising global temperatures will speed the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and cause early ice thaw on rivers and lakes.

 

Warning signs today

 

* At the current rate of retreat, all of the glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone by 2070.

 

* After existing for many millennia, the northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica -- a section larger than the state of Rhode Island -- collapsed between January and March 2002, disintegrating at a rate that astonished scientists. Since 1995 the ice shelf's area has shrunk by 40 percent.

 

* According to NASA, the polar ice cap is now melting at the alarming rate of nine percent per decade. Arctic ice thickness has decreased 40 percent since the 1960s.

 

* In 82 years of record-keeping, four of the five earliest thaws on Alaska's Tanana River were in the 1990s.

 

Collapse of Larsen B ice shelf

The satellite photo at far left shows the Larson B ice shelf on Jan. 31, 2002. Ice appears as solid white. Moving to the right, in photos taken Feb. 17 and Feb. 23, the ice begins to disintegrate. In the photos at far right, taken Mar. 5 and Mar 7, note water (blue) where solid ice had been, and that a portion of the shelf is drifting away. Photos: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

 

Consequence: sea-level rise

Current rates of sea-level rise are expected to increase as a result both of thermal expansion of the oceans and of partial melting of mountain glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. Consequences include loss of coastal wetlands and barrier islands, and a greater risk of flooding in coastal communities. Low-lying areas, such as the coastal region along the Gulf of Mexico and estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay, are especially vulnerable.

 

Warning signs today

 

* The current pace of sea-level rise is three times the historical rate and appears to be accelerating.

 

* Global sea level has already risen by four to eight inches in the past century. Scientists' best estimate is that sea level will rise by an additional 19 inches by 2100, and perhaps by as much as 37 inches.

 

 

ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTION

 

Alpine meadow

Warmer temperatures may cause some ecosystems, including alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, to disappear.

 

Consequence: ecosystem shifts and species die-off

The increase in global temperatures is expected to disrupt ecosystems and result in loss of species diversity, as species that cannot adapt die off. The first comprehensive assessment of the extinction risk from global warming found that more than one million species could be committed to extinction by 2050 if global warming pollution is not curtailed. Some ecosystems, including alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, as well as tropical montane and mangrove forests, are likely to disappear because new warmer local climates or coastal sea level rise will not support them.

 

Warning signs today

 

* A recent study published in the prestigious journal Nature found that at least 279 species of plants and animals are already responding to global warming. Species' geographic ranges have shifted toward the poles at an average rate of 4 miles per decade and their spring events have shifted earlier by an average of 2 days per decade.

 

* In Washington's Olympic Mountains, sub-alpine forest has invaded higher elevation alpine meadows. In Bermuda and other places, mangrove forests are being lost.

 

* In areas of California, shoreline sea life is shifting northward, probably in response to warmer ocean and air temperatures.

 

* Over the past 25 years, some penguin populations have shrunk by 33 percent in parts of Antarctica, due to declines in winter sea-ice habitat.