Politics in Iran

[Pangloss]

One of the more interesting aspects of the current crisis between Israel and Lebanon is the impact it's having in internal Iranian politics. Iranian political and religious leaders have been playing a very high stakes game of "wag the dog" when it comes to Hezbollah, and there are signs that, while they've generally been playing that game very well, they may be getting more than they bargained for.

 

This interesting article by Jim Sciutto of ABC News was broadcast from Tehran today, and appears to be unique amongst current reportage in the region:

 

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=2275230

 

At first Scutto reports about the demonstrations at the British Embassy, the vast signing-up of suicide volunteers (would they have signed up in those numbers if they hadn't known the doors were presently closed?), and so forth. But then he goes on to point out that the demonstrations are carefully orchestrated by the government.

 

Move away from the orchestration, and the picture is very different. Most Iranians appear to NOT support Hezbollah, and in fact the story seems to suggest that if Iran were to enter into a wider conflict, it would not be a popular war. Iranians want their DOMESTIC problems dealt with. High unemployment and poverty in THIS gasoline market is astonishingly disappointing even to supporters of the Iranian government.

 

Combine this with the Security Council coming together to finally reach a certain degree of consensus about Iran's nuclear weapons program, and what you have is an increasingly tenuous situation for Iranian leadership, in spite of an amazingly adroit series of recent plays. They've put their best cards on the table, and they just don't seem to be good enough.

 

It's probably worth noting, however, that this does not necessarily make them more amenable to peace. On the contrary, with their backs to the wall they may be more dangerous than ever.

[Skye]

I'm not a big fan of polls but some polling would be useful here. I'm sure the reporter is being forthright, but just think of an Iranian reporter going to New York to cover US politics. The Republicans are going down in flames! The reporter here came up with one guy saying something vaguely against the support for Hezbollah. Most likely he is in some way associated with the main opposition party. But that opposition is heavily based on student activists, and are people worried about the economy and national security going to trust student activists with their vote? That's way too easy a task for conservative tacticians, regardless of where you are in the world.

[Pangloss]

It's a good point. Iran is a very large, diverse society. The "man on the street" perspective may be very different once you move away from Tehran.