Abe to replace Koizumi

[Sisyphus]

As Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan prepares to step down, Shinzo Abe has definitively gained the support of the Liberal Democratic Party, which controls the lower house of Parliament and therefore the election of the Prime Minister. Abe has managed this without publically explaining very many actual policies at all, with the notable exception of a promise to spearhead an amendment to the Japanese constitution that would allow for an offensive and independent military. He is also known for his vocal belligerence towards China and North Korea, and the controversy surrounding his repeated visits to Shinto shrines honoring WW2 dead, including 14 acknowledged war criminals. Interestingly, he will also be the first Prime Minister born after the end of WW2.

 

So should we be worried? Streaks of aggression and nationalism seem like they must be bad news for Japan, which has so far been the most stabile nation in a delicately balanced region. Koizumi was always adept at appearing strong but not aggressive, which served the region well. With Sino-Japanese relations at the worst they've been in a while, and slow, fragile progress being made between North and South Korea as well as China and Taiwan, this hardly seems the time for unchecked bravado from an unproven leader. If Japan continues as it has been, a stronger military could be a great stabilizing force. But change is certainly in the air.

 

Anyway, thoughts? Better insights than mine?

[Martin]

Anyway, thoughts? Better insights than mine?

 

no better insights from me. but Skye is Australian and they may be more sensitive to Japan's military temperature

 

I appreciate this post Sisyphus, kind of window on longterm history that I do like to hear about. I don't read or watch the news regularly so occasional items like this are very welcome.

 

It would tend to stabilize things to have a militarily formidable japan wouldn't it? offset china and n.korea? wouldn't it

[Tetrahedrite]

It would tend to stabilize things to have a militarily formidable japan wouldn't it? offset china and n.korea? wouldn't it

 

Or cause an arms race?

[Skye]

There's supposedly a policy of containment of China with the US State Dept. This includes supporting Japan being more outgoing in its foreign policy. When she last visted Oz Condi Rice denied that this. But other people within the Department, like Bob Zoelick, have put forth alternate ideas, so there's obviously a rough policy there that they are creating alternatives to.

 

After WWII some convicted war criminals were released and took up jobs in the government. So there's a sense within the countries that were occupied during WWII that Japan has never really taken its conduct during the war seriously. The shrine vists have played into that in being apparent contradictory to Japan's apologies for war crimes. China and others have protested, but Koizumi has been unwilling to back down to pressure. There's a feeling that Abe might be able to to avoid this if he doesn't set a precedent like Koizumi did.

 

Other than that though, there's the strange relationship Japanese nationalists have with the US that confuses things. On the one hand the US is the main force pushing Japan to take a greater role in the world, and to take a looser interpretation of the pacifist constitution. On the other the US still occupies Japan, and with an apparent agreement to base a nuclear carrier in Japan, this will continue for some time into the future. So there's a sense of Japan being drawn into US foreign policy, something alot of governments around the world have had to deal with since 9/11.