James Baker on Iraq

[Pangloss]

Former Secretary of State (under the first President Bush) James Baker was on "This Week" on ABC this morning, and he had some comments that I thought were interesting. This first one is more of an interesting observation rather than something that speaks to any potential solutions, but I think it speaks volumes about the situation.

 

Many Americans wondered back in 1991 why we didn't take out Saddam Hussein then. Oh there were plenty of good reasons, but I myself was never really comfortable with it. I think the problem (just speaking for myself here) was that I just couldn't really fathom the kind of ideological divides that we were told Saddam was keeping in check. Surely that's just an exaggeration, right? No country could really be all that divided, could it? Bear in mind that this was BEFORE Yugoslavia came apart, and right at the same time as the Iron Curtain was coming down, and I think a lot of Americans probably looked at it the same way. We understood what we were told, we just didn't get it.

 

The comment that Baker made this morning that I thought was really interesting is that he said that he used to get asked all the time when he would go on speaking tours why they didn't take out Hussein in 1991. He would explain patiently the reasons, but the questions would just come up again in the next city he visited.

 

He doesn't get those questions anymore.

 

 

The other thing I thought was interesting was that he had a response to what I've been calling "the Biden Plan", which is the concept of dividing Iraq into three sub-governments along religious lines. I'd never really heard a good argument against that. The argument against it is that the cities are too tightly integrated and mixed, and there are no clear dividing lines. So actually splitting up the country that way might produce the kind of all-out civil war that we're hoping to avoid. BUT he doesn't want to completely dismiss the idea and he implied that it may ultimately be the best solution.

 

 

The reason all of this is important is that Baker (a Republican) is teamed up with Lee Hamilton (a prominent Democrat and co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission) and a number of other key independent voices (such as former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Conner) to study the situation in Iraq. They've been working on their study for six months now, and are rumored to be close to producing a unanimous report. Because this group enjoys support from both Congress and the White House, it's quite possible that this report could point toward a major change in direction for the War in Iraq.

 

If, for example, it recommends withdrawl, then that could in fact happen. Especially since the report will likely come out AFTER the election. It's likely that the tone of the pro-war side will change dramatically after November.

[john5746]

I don't think Bush will change anything until he gets severe heat from his own party, which will probably start as election 2008 heats up. The repubs will look for a way to signal progress in Iraq, i.e pullout of some troops according to 'plan'.