shifts in the physics book market

[Martin]

I've been watching the US amazon physics bestseller list. I think I detect a shift in the market. Or maybe several shifts going on simultaneously---changes in what kind of physics books people want to buy.

You may wish to comment. Here is a snapshot of the physics bestsellers (the first 20) as of 5 PM pacific Saturday 14 October.

 

the number after the author's name is the overall sales rank among all books that amazon sells.

 

The Smolin book has now been steady #1 for about 1 month. since about 15 September. It has been having a good sales rank, now 256 and usually in the range 200-500.

 

Part of the shift that string books are not selling so well as they were a month or two ago. "Elegant Universe" used to be right up near to Smolin's book in sales rank but now has slipped. Popular-written string books like by Kaku, Lisa Randall, Leonard Susskind, are somewhat out of sight, not in the first 25.

 

Anyway, see what you think. here is the Saturday 5 PM snapshot:

 

1. The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, the Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next

by Lee Smolin 256

 

2. This Is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession

by Daniel J. Levitin 911

 

3. Not Even Wrong: The Failure of String Theory And the Search for Unity in Physical Law

by Peter Woit 1321

 

4. Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! (Adventures of a Curious Character)

by Richard P. Feynman 1493

 

5. The Road to Reality : A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe

by Roger Penrose 1586

 

6. A Brief History of Time

by Stephen Hawking 1642

 

7. What the Bleep Do We Know!?™: Discovering the Endless Possibilities for Altering Your Everyday Reality

by William Arntz 2064

 

8. The Field: The Quest for the Secret Force of the Universe

by Lynne McTaggart 2234

 

9. 3,000 Solved Problems in Physics (Schaum's Solved Problems Series)

by Alvin Halpern 2403

 

10. Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak

by Kenneth S. Deffeyes 2544

 

11. Cracking the AP Physics B and C Exams, 2006-2007 Edition (College Test Prep)

by Princeton Review 2647

 

12. Out of the Shadows: Contributions of Twentieth-Century Women to Physics

by Nina Byers 2711

 

13. God's Universe

by Owen Gingerich 2728

 

14. The Holographic Universe

by Michael Talbot 2801

 

15. American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer (Vintage)

by Kai Bird 2884

 

16. The Elegant Universe: Superstrings, Hidden Dimensions, and the Quest for the Ultimate Theory

by Brian Greene 2928

 

17. The Cartoon Guide to Physics

by Larry Gonick 2984

 

18. The Illustrated Brief History of Time, Updated and Expanded Edition

by Stephen William Hawking 3148

 

19. Flatland: A Romance of Many Dimensions (Dover Thrift Editions)

by Edwin A. Abbott 3178

 

20. A Briefer History of Time

by Stephen Hawking 3483

[Martin]

I decided to construct an index and watch to see if it changed

 

currently, Sunday 15 october 11 AM pacific, the index is 7924

 

we can see if it just bounces around randomly or whether it drifts up or down

 

this index is the average US amazon sales rank of SIX STRINGY BOOKS

 

Greene Elegant (paperback) 1546

Greene Fabric (paper) 3039

Randall Warped (hardcover) 8192

Kaku Parallel (pap) 10,084

Kaku Hypersp (pap) 10,201

Randall Warped (pap) 14,664

 

I have not included Susskind "Cosmic Landscape" because its sales rank 29,204 strikes me outlying and apt to drag the others down. without Susskind, it is more of a cluster. The sum is 47,726 and the average of the six is 7954.

 

Let's see how this index moves. It could go either way. Maybe someone wants to criticize the index? Would you like to delete some books or add others?

 

Here are the links that one needs in order to check the sales ranks of the books mentioned:

http://www.amazon.com/Elegant-Universe-Superstrings-Dimensions-Ultimate/dp/0375708111/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Fabric-Cosmos-Texture-Reality-Vintage/dp/0375727205/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Warped-Passages-Unraveling-Mysteries-Dimensions/dp/0060531088/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Parallel-Worlds-Through-Creation-Dimensions/dp/1400033721/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Hyperspace-Scientific-Odyssey-Parallel-Universes/dp/0385477058/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Warped-Passages-Unraveling-Mysteries-Dimensions/dp/0060531096/

 

===========================

 

for comparison this gives the sales rank of Susskind's book too (which I have not included in the average because it does not appear to be selling as well as the others)

http://www.amazon.com/Cosmic-Landscape-String-Illusion-Intelligent/dp/0316155799/

[Martin]

so at 11 AM the index was 7924

and at 7PM, it was 7981

 

I've cut out a lot of random fluctuation.

 

(maybe this is going to end up NOT showing any trend, or it will be in the opposite direction from what

I am expecting, but anyway I will watch it for a while---so far it is not going anywhere but that is just over an 8 hour period)

[Martin]

I just checked the "stringy book sales index" as of 3AM pacific on Monday 16 october and it was 4928.

 

here was the physics bestseller list at that time:

 

1. The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, the Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next

by Lee Smolin

 

2. The Field: The Quest for the Secret Force of the Universe

by Lynne McTaggart

 

3. American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer (Vintage)

by Kai Bird

 

4. This Is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession

by Daniel J. Levitin

 

5. Not Even Wrong: The Failure of String Theory And the Search for Unity in Physical Law

by Peter Woit

 

6. A Brief History of Time

by Stephen Hawking

 

7. The Elegant Universe: Superstrings, Hidden Dimensions, and the Quest for the Ultimate Theory

by Brian Greene

 

8. The Fabric of the Cosmos: Space, Time, and the Texture of Reality (Vintage)

by Brian Greene

 

9. Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! (Adventures of a Curious Character)

by Richard P. Feynman

 

10. A Briefer History of Time

by Stephen Hawking

 

11. 3,000 Solved Problems in Physics (Schaum's Solved Problems) (Schaum's Solved Problems Series)

by Alvin Halpern

 

12. Physics For Dummies (For Dummies (Math & Science))

by Steve Holzner

 

13. The Illustrated Brief History of Time, Updated and Expanded Edition

by Stephen William Hawking

 

14. Cracking the AP Physics B and C Exams, 2006-2007 Edition (College Test Prep)

by Princeton Review

 

15. What the Bleep Do We Know!?™: Discovering the Endless Possibilities for Altering Your Everyday Reality

by William Arntz

 

16. The Making of the Atomic Bomb

by Richard Rhodes

 

17. Basic Electricity

by Bureau of Naval Personnel

 

18. The Road to Reality : A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe

by Roger Penrose

 

19. Cracking the SAT Physics Subject Test, 2005-2006

by Princeton Review

 

20. Out of the Shadows: Contributions of Twentieth-Century Women to Physics

by Nina Byers

 

21. Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software

by Steven Johnson

 

22. God's Universe

by Owen Gingerich

 

23. The Holographic Universe

by Michael Talbot

 

24. Warped Passages: Unraveling the Mysteries of the Universe's Hidden Dimensions

by Lisa Randall

========

at 6 AM, 5259

at 7 AM, 5830

at 9 AM, 6933

[bascule]

7. What the Bleep Do We Know!?™: Discovering the Endless Possibilities for Altering Your Everyday Reality

by William Arntz 2064

 

It's really sad to see that in the top 10

[Martin]

I think I know a bit how you feel. I was appalled when I first looked at the amazon bestsellers, by what garbage people buy and presumably also read

 

however .... ...

whatever....

you can learn something from these lists

probably especially you can learn from the all-books list, because there you don't have the amazon staff sorting things into categories

 

any sorting into categories begins to put in some kind of bias----like probably you or i would not have included "The Field" in with physics in the first place, but amazon did

 

hey bascule, do you know anything about

"21. Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software

by Steven Johnson" ?

 

did you already refer to this in some post? I don't recall, it could be a good book, judging from title------the emergence of organization in collections of simple units-----or it could also just be a pot-boiler with nothing especially new to say.

================

 

not yet sure that this average stringy sales rank index has anything to say------very jumpy----might have to average over longer periods of time.

 

so far today it goes

3 AM, 4928

6 AM, 5259

7 AM, 5830

9 AM, 6933

11 AM, 8105

1 PM, 6887

3 PM, 9036

4 PM, 8547

 

rotation of the earth could be having an effect-----the more sunlight shines on California the fewer string books people buy

then when it's dark night in california, like 3 AM, they buy lots and lots of string books, but then as soon as old mister sun peeks up over the hills they come to their senses again and stop. something like that.

 

if it is a diurnal rotation effect then I just need to average over the day----or even just pick a particular time of day and always look then.

all I want is to see if there is a trend

[bascule]

I saw that and was quite excited Martin, but after reading some of the reviews I grew disinterested. I'm all about emergence/epiphenomena, however...

[Martin]

 

not yet sure that this average stringy sales rank index has anything to say------very jumpy----might have to average over longer periods of time.

...

...

 

rotation of the earth could be having an effect...

 

so far today it goes

3 AM, 4928

6 AM, 5259

7 AM, 5830

9 AM, 6933

11 AM, 8105

1 PM, 6887

3 PM, 9036

4 PM, 8547

5 PM, 8926

6 PM, 8893

7 PM, 8362

8 PM, 9222

9 PM, 9451

 

in interpreting sales ranks you have to remember that "low is good" and that it is sort of the opposite of a preference or liking. As a quantity it is more similiar to a DISlike. a large sales rank can be interpreted as relative dislike of stringy books compared with other books----when the index is big it means people are more selective against string books.

 

average sales rank of stringy books does not translate easily into raw numbers of copies sold, because it is comparative with other books of all kinds that amazon sells. maybe people buy LESS OF ALL KINDS in the dark hours of 3 AM in the morning. But that is the time when they seem to dislike string comparatively the least and this index number is the lowest, so of that smallert amount that they are buying in the dark hours, a larger fraction of it is string----I don't know the window of time they use, it may be just one hour, since they update every hour, or it may be longer.

 

I will bring the links along to have them handy

this index is the average US amazon sales rank of SIX STRINGY BOOKS

 

Greene Elegant (paperback)

Greene Fabric (paper)

Randall Warped (hardcover)

Kaku Parallel (paper)

Kaku Hypersp (paper)

Randall Warped (paper)

 

I have not included Susskind "Cosmic Landscape" because its sales rank strikes me outlying---it is exceptionally unpopular---the others are more of a cluster.

 

Here are the links that one needs in order to check the sales ranks of the books mentioned:

http://www.amazon.com/Elegant-Universe-Superstrings-Dimensions-Ultimate/dp/0375708111/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Fabric-Cosmos-Texture-Reality-Vintage/dp/0375727205/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Warped-Passages-Unraveling-Mysteries-Dimensions/dp/0060531088/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Parallel-Worlds-Through-Creation-Dimensions/dp/1400033721/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Hyperspace-Scientific-Odyssey-Parallel-Universes/dp/0385477058/

 

http://www.amazon.com/Warped-Passages-Unraveling-Mysteries-Dimensions/dp/0060531096/

 

======

[CPL.Luke]

you have to be careful though, as you are looking at an verall sales rank its pssible that people are just selecting against physics books in general, or maybe even science books in general.

[Martin]

that's right! I should be recording average stringy rank among all PHYSICS books. that would be easier to do, too, because the numbers are smaller.

that would give additional information. thanks. I may start doing that.

===============

 

OK our average stringy rank in all PHYSICS books for 7 PM today is

25.4

 

I am excluding another outlying book---the paperback edition of Randall (which sometimes doesnt even place in the top 100 physics list) and narrowing it down to 5 books here are their 7 PM ranks

 

Greene Elegant 9

Greene Fabric 13

Kaku Hyper 30

Kaku Parallel 35

Randall Warped (hardbound) 40

 

and as of 8 PM it is

 

Greene Elegant 10

Greene Fabric 15

Kaku Hyper 33

Kaku Parallel 37

Randall Warped (hardbound) 42

 

and the average is 27.4

 

Well you suggested something like this Luke!

 

the funny thing is that just a few weeks ago Greene Elegant often used to be in the top three of the physics list

I got used to seeing it #2 or #3 when Smolin was #1. It really has slipped.

Have to say though that it must be one of the all time physics bestsellers because it has been doing outstandingly well since 1996 or whenever it came out.

==============

Monday stringy sales rank index (in the category physics)

7 PM, 25.4

8 PM, 27.4

9 PM, 25.8

===============