Your prediction about string theory's popularity

[CPL.Luke]

hmm I think we forgot about something, students just started buying their books for the spring semester, so al the textbooks are goin to go up in ranking and the other books down.

 

then for the next month or so I'd imagine the entire market is going to decline as the primary audience is going to be busy, and then after that we could get some real nmbers on the subject.

[Martin]

hmm I think we forgot about something, students just started buying their books for the spring semester, so al the textbooks are goin to go up in ranking and the other books down...

 

some may have neglected the textbook effect but others didn't. I didn't ignore it, which is why I made the fairly low estimate I did. I figured the textbook effect would diminish during the second half of the month because students would mostly have bought their textbooks by that time.

 

Anyway let's have the same prediction game next month, and see if you are right.

[Martin]

UPDATE: Here is what the "String NASDAQ" popularity index (which we are trying to predict the Jan avg.) has done this month so far:

 

01 jan Monday noon 10.8

02 jan Tuesday noon 13.0

03 jan Wednesday noon 13.6

04 jan Thursday noon 17.2

05 jan Friday noon 18.6

06 jan Saturday noon 28.0

07 jan Sunday noon 8.8

08 jan Monday noon 23.2

09 jan Tuesday noon 33.2

10 jan Wednesday noon 41.0

 

(running ten-day total is 207. 4, and ten-day average is 20.7)

 

11 jan Thursday noon 43.0

12 jan Friday noon 38.6

13 jan Saturday noon 25.4

14 jan Sunday noon 21.4

15 jan Monday noon 17.8

16 jan Tuesday noon 30.2

17 jan Wednesday noon 41.4

 

the lineup was interesting, e.g. on wednesday Smolin was in second place on the list and Greene's elegant was #10

2. Smolin "Trouble...and What Comes Next"

10. Greene elegant

19. Greene fabric

27. Randall warped

56. Randall warped (hardcover)

95. Kaku hyperspace

[Martin]

UPDATE: Here is what the "String NASDAQ" popularity index (which we are trying to predict the Jan avg.) has done this month so far:

 

01 jan Monday noon 10.8

02 jan Tuesday noon 13.0

03 jan Wednesday noon 13.6

04 jan Thursday noon 17.2

05 jan Friday noon 18.6

06 jan Saturday noon 28.0

07 jan Sunday noon 8.8

08 jan Monday noon 23.2

09 jan Tuesday noon 33.2

10 jan Wednesday noon 41.0

 

(running ten-day total is 207. 4, and ten-day average is 20.7)

 

11 jan Thursday noon 43.0

12 jan Friday noon 38.6

13 jan Saturday noon 25.4

14 jan Sunday noon 21.4

15 jan Monday noon 17.8

16 jan Tuesday noon 30.2

17 jan Wednesday noon 41.4

18 jan Thursday noon 46.2

19 jan Friday noon 29.0

20 jan Saturday noon 26.2

 

ten-day total is 319.2 and average is 31.9

 

twenty-day total is 526.6 and average for month so far is 26.3

 

This is in "nosedive" territory. If the month ended today, then Bettina, Norman, and Sysco would be declared the winners!

(but obviously things can still change we have eleven more days left, that could pull the average down.)

[Martin]

We have another forecaster! Ragib just joined the game, and registered his prediction which agrees with those of Bee, Sysco, and Norman.

 

Now would be a convenient time to do an update and add what the "string nasdaq" has been these last few days to the record.

 

 

01 jan Monday noon 10.8

02 jan Tuesday noon 13.0

03 jan Wednesday noon 13.6

04 jan Thursday noon 17.2

05 jan Friday noon 18.6

06 jan Saturday noon 28.0

07 jan Sunday noon 8.8

08 jan Monday noon 23.2

09 jan Tuesday noon 33.2

10 jan Wednesday noon 41.0

 

(running ten-day total is 207. 4, and ten-day average is 20.7)

 

11 jan Thursday noon 43.0

12 jan Friday noon 38.6

13 jan Saturday noon 25.4

14 jan Sunday noon 21.4

15 jan Monday noon 17.8

16 jan Tuesday noon 30.2

17 jan Wednesday noon 41.4

18 jan Thursday noon 46.2

19 jan Friday noon 29.0

20 jan Saturday noon 26.2

 

ten-day total 319.2 and average 31.9

 

21 jan Sunday noon 20.2

22 jan Monday noon 25.8

23 jan Tuesday noon 29.8

24 jan Wednesday noon 38.8

[Norman Albers]

I am reading an interesting article in Sci.Am. Feb.'07, on "causal dynamical triangulation (CDT)" put forth by three Europeans, Loll, Ambjorn, and Jurkiewicz. They work with triangles forming 4-D tetrahedrons called "simplexes", mostly on computer simulations. . . . . SEEING MARTIN'S RESPONSE, thank you for the encouragement. It is a one-pager, with a nice diagram, and there's not too much more to say. That's sort of why I just blurbed it here. Anybody may feel free to pick up this baton.

[Martin]

I am reading an interesting article in Sci.Am. Feb.'07, on "causal dynamical triangulation (CDT)" put forth by three Europeans, Loll, Ambjorn, and Jurkiewicz. They work with triangles forming 4-D tetrahedrons called "simplexes", mostly on computer simulations.

 

Interesting.

You could start a thread, give some links, and explain a little bit about it.

 

maybe there is no free access online to the SciAm article but instead some other articles by the same authors.

here is one

http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0509010

you may find others

 

thanks for the pointer to the SciAm. I hope you do start a thread, it looks like an interesting approach to QG

[Martin]

It's actually turning out to be rather close. The contest is between ParanoiA (who wins if it is less than 25) and Bee's team ( Bee, Sysco, Norman and Ragib) who win if the average is 25 or more.

 

 

01 jan Monday noon 10.8

02 jan Tuesday noon 13.0

03 jan Wednesday noon 13.6

04 jan Thursday noon 17.2

05 jan Friday noon 18.6

06 jan Saturday noon 28.0

07 jan Sunday noon 8.8

08 jan Monday noon 23.2

09 jan Tuesday noon 33.2

10 jan Wednesday noon 41.0

11 jan Thursday noon 43.0

12 jan Friday noon 38.6

13 jan Saturday noon 25.4

14 jan Sunday noon 21.4

15 jan Monday noon 17.8

16 jan Tuesday noon 30.2

17 jan Wednesday noon 41.4

18 jan Thursday noon 46.2

19 jan Friday noon 29.0

20 jan Saturday noon 26.2

 

21 jan Sunday noon 20.2

22 jan Monday noon 25.8

23 jan Tuesday noon 29.8

24 jan Wednesday noon 38.8

25 jan Thursday noon 23.8

26 jan Friday noon 32.0

 

the total of the first 20 days was 526.6

updating that to the 26th makes the total 697

and the average for the month so far comes out 26.8

 

So if the month would be over today, Bee's team would win----they predicted nosedive in string pop booksales, which is what seems to have happened.

 

But if the next few data points are very very low, it could imaginably pull the average down to just under 25, in which case ParanoiA would have won.

So ParanoiA should not give up!

[Norman Albers]

If we can pull it out of the hat to reconstitute as radial strings, I will not insist on a pencil-breaking ritual.

[Martin]

I am reading an interesting article in Sci.Am. Feb.'07, on "causal dynamical triangulation (CDT)" put forth by three Europeans, Loll, Ambjorn, and Jurkiewicz. They work with triangles forming 4-D tetrahedrons called "simplexes", mostly on computer simulations. . . . . SEEING MARTIN'S RESPONSE, thank you for the encouragement. It is a one-pager, with a nice diagram, and there's not too much more to say. That's sort of why I just blurbed it here. Anybody may feel free to pick up this baton.

 

Norman, Here are two more CDT articles that I didnt provide you links to earlier

 

http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0604212

Quantum Gravity, or The Art of Building Spacetime

Authors: J. Ambjorn, J. Jurkiewicz, R. Loll

Comments: 22 pages, 6 figures. Contribution to the book "Approaches to Quantum Gravity", ed. D. Oriti, Cambridge University Press

Report-no: Spin-06/16, ITP-UU-06/19

 

"The method of four-dimensional Causal Dynamical Triangulations provides a background-independent definition of the sum over geometries in quantum gravity, in the presence of a positive cosmological constant. We present the evidence accumulated to date that a macroscopic four-dimensional world can emerge from this theory dynamically. Using computer simulations we observe in the Euclidean sector a universe whose scale factor exhibits the same dynamics as that of the simplest mini-superspace models in quantum cosmology, with the distinction that in the case of causal dynamical triangulations the effective action for the scale factor is not put in by hand but obtained by integrating out {\it in the quantum theory} the full set of dynamical degrees of freedom except for the scale factor itself."

 

and

 

http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0505154

Reconstructing the Universe

Authors: J. Ambjorn (NBI Copenhagen and U. Utrecht), J. Jurkiewicz (U. Krakow), R. Loll (U. Utrecht)

Comments: 52 pages, 20 postscript figures, added references

Report-no: SPIN-05/14, ITP-UU-05/18

Journal-ref: Phys.Rev. D72 (2005) 064014

 

"We provide detailed evidence for the claim that nonperturbative quantum gravity, defined through state sums of causal triangulated geometries, possesses a large-scale limit in which the dimension of spacetime is four and the dynamics of the volume of the universe behaves semiclassically. This is a first step in reconstructing the universe from a dynamical principle at the Planck scale, and at the same time provides a nontrivial consistency check of the method of causal dynamical triangulations. A closer look at the quantum geometry reveals a number of highly nonclassical aspects, including a dynamical reduction of spacetime to two dimensions on short scales and a fractal structure of slices of constant time."

 

If we can pull it out of the hat to reconstitute as radial strings, I will not insist on a pencil-breaking ritual.

 

If Bee team is winners, then I suggest consulting with her about an appropriate reward. She was the first to predict that 25+ range (then you and Sysco jumped on, and Ragib later) so should have some say.

[Martin]

It's actually turning out to be rather close. The contest is between ParanoiA (who wins if it is less than 25) and Bee's team ( Bee, Sysco, Norman and Ragib) who win if the average is 25 or more.

 

 

01 jan Monday noon 10.8

02 jan Tuesday noon 13.0

03 jan Wednesday noon 13.6

04 jan Thursday noon 17.2

05 jan Friday noon 18.6

06 jan Saturday noon 28.0

07 jan Sunday noon 8.8

08 jan Monday noon 23.2

09 jan Tuesday noon 33.2

10 jan Wednesday noon 41.0

11 jan Thursday noon 43.0

12 jan Friday noon 38.6

13 jan Saturday noon 25.4

14 jan Sunday noon 21.4

15 jan Monday noon 17.8

16 jan Tuesday noon 30.2

17 jan Wednesday noon 41.4

18 jan Thursday noon 46.2

19 jan Friday noon 29.0

20 jan Saturday noon 26.2

 

 

21 jan Sunday noon 20.2

22 jan Monday noon 25.8

23 jan Tuesday noon 29.8

24 jan Wednesday noon 38.8

25 jan Thursday noon 23.8

26 jan Friday noon 32.0

27 jan Saturday noon 30.2

28 jan Sunday noon 19.4

29 jan Monday noon 17.2

30 jan Tuesday noon 27.4

31 jan Wednesday noon 17.0

 

 

the total of the first 20 days was 526.6

updating that to the 26th makes the total 697

and the average for the month so far comes out 26.8

 

So if the month would be over today, Bee's team would win----they predicted nosedive in string pop booksales, which is what seems to have happened.

 

But if the next few data points are very very low, it could imaginably pull the average down to just under 25, in which case ParanoiA would have won.

So ParanoiA should not give up!

 

It turned out quite close all the way to the end!

 

The final total was 808.2, making the average for the month 26.1

 

BEE TEAM WINS!

 

Congratulations Bee, Sysco, Norman and Ragib!

 

String booksales have done a nosedive this month. In December during the weeks i checked, the average rank was around 11.

 

this month sales are doing only half as well judging by the average standing of the most popular titles.

 

I wonder how it will be in February. A comeback is quite possible---sales could pick up and the Stringy NASDAQ index could get back into the teens, near where it was last month.

[Bettina]

Unfortunately, all we win are string books that nobody wants....

 

Bee

[Martin]

Unfortunately, all we win are string books that nobody wants....

 

Bee

 

Hold on to those books! They might become collector's items.

 

Actually I feel that string popularity (with general reading public) should probably be making a come-back this month of February. I am going to watch the popularity index a while more and see if it doesnt get back to around 20.

(or less.) (come to think, maybe even 15.)

[Bettina]

Hold on to those books! They might become collector's items.

 

Actually I feel that string popularity (with general reading public) should probably be making a come-back this month of February. I am going to watch the popularity index a while more and see if it doesnt get back to around 20.

(or less.) (come to think, maybe even 15.)

 

Hi Martin,

 

Even knowing that strings are impossible to test for, if the LHC doesn't find a miniscule support for strings, then I'm going to double my bet.

 

Bee