String research output for 2007

[Martin]

By doing the same database search, with the same keywords, in successive years one gets an index of the rate of string research publication.

What do you estimate the index for 2007 is going to be?

 

The figures for 2002 and 2006 were 1148 and 972. That many published books and articles showing one or more of 5 keywords in the abstract*. We won't know the 2007 figure until the year is over. If anyone wants to guess, register your prediction in the poll. Six months from now I'll check and see whose forecast came closest.

 

*Authors of physics books and journal papers normally provide a short abstract summary containing keywords that indicate what the work is about. Keywords that work well to find String papers are {superstring, M-theory, brane, heterotic, AdS/CFT}. Harvard has a database with the abstracts of research publications in physics and related fields, which we can use to gauge string research publication rates.

 

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2002&end_mon=&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2006&end_mon=&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2007&end_mon=&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

=======

 

As a possible help, in case anyone wants to hazard a guess , here are data the first six months of each year, same years and keywords. Currently these links give 654, 571, and 433 (stragglers might bring the last figure up to 460 or so, I expect.)

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2002&end_mon=06&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2006&end_mon=06&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2007&end_mon=06&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

[BenTheMan]

Martin---

 

I wouldn't imagine that the papers are evenly distributed through the year. I would imagine that there is a surge in publications from August to October, as people who have been working (and attending conferences) all summer get their work out. The first six months of the year is generally eaten up with teaching, I would guess.

 

After rereading your post more carefully, I see that I am thouroughly wrong!

[theCPE]

Probably around 765 papers for 2007.....

 

Hopefully by 2010 its only about 100-200.

[Martin]

Probably around 765 papers for 2007.....

 

Hopefully by 2010 its only about 100-200.

 

theCPE, thanks for registering a guess in the poll! You are the first person to say around 800. I hope some other people come up with different estimates so we can compare later with how it turns out.

 

Ben, I appreciate your response and in fact some random bunching is possible. I urge you to try your luck at guessing. It is a way of finding out who has an accurate intuitive feel for how things are going. I'd like to have your forecast in the poll too!

[BenTheMan]

I'm going to guess between 850 and 900, very cautiously. Maybe I'll get a paper or two out by December

[Martin]

I'm going to guess between 850 and 900, very cautiously. Maybe I'll get a paper or two out by December

 

More power to you! if you are actually doing physics research of any kind.

 

If you were kidding, still, it points to a possible failing of this kind of index.

People could start hustling, or the various agencies could let down their standards (peer-reviewing, it could get easier to publish, or Harvard could admit a large class of journals like small foreign ones of unknown editorial policy) Measures like this, or the citation indexes, could get watered down in

various ways. Just because people wanted to make the overall statistics look better.

 

But I don't expect this to happen.

 

================

 

BTW I think your 850-900 guess is astute and realistic. If I were going to get into the poll I might pick the same forecast. but am more interested at this point in what other people think.

[BenTheMan]

More power to you! if you are actually doing physics research of any kind.

 

I am a ``stringer''. I'm a grad student at OSU.

 

Also, are you counting journal articles or preprints (i.w. arxiv.org or spires)? I was thinking of preprints earlier, when I made my comments about a surge around September. This would make sense, as well, because it usually takes a few months to go from preprint to refereed article.

[Martin]

Some of Tseytlin's earliest papers are COSMOLOGY-related

bjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

163. arXiv:hep-th/9206067 [ps, pdf, other]

Title: String cosmology and dilaton

Authors: A.A. Tseytlin

Comments: 30 pages, DAMTP-92-36, harvmac

Journal-ref: in: String quantum gravity and physics at the Planck scale, erice, 21-28 June 1992, ed. N. Sachez, World Scientific, 1993, p.202

Subjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

164. arXiv:hep-th/9205058 [ps, pdf, other]

Title: A class of finite two - dimensional sigma models and string vacua

Authors: A.A. Tseytlin

Comments: 15 pages [Complete revision. The main statement of the previous version is generalised to the case of an arbitrary ``transverse" metric satisfying sigma model renormalization group equation.]

Journal-ref: Phys.Lett. B288 (1992) 279-285

Subjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

165. arXiv:hep-th/9203033 [ps, pdf, other]

Title: Cosmological solutions with dilaton and maximally symmetric space in string theory

Authors: A.A. Tseytlin

Comments: 34 pages --------TEX errors finally corrected-------------------

Journal-ref: Int.J.Mod.Phys. D1 (1992) 223-245

Subjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

166. arXiv:hep-th/9201021 [ps, pdf, other]

Title: Scalar-Tensor Quantum Gravity in Two Dimensions

Authors: J. Russo, A.A. Tseytlin

Comments: 18 pages

Journal-ref: Nucl.Phys. B382 (1992) 259-275

Subjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

167. arXiv:hep-th/9112004 [ps, pdf, other]

Title: Dilaton, winding modes and cosmological solutions

Authors: A.A. Tseytlin

Comments: 30 p

Journal-ref: Class.Quant.Grav. 9 (1992) 979-1000

Subjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

168. arXiv:hep-th/9109048 [ps, pdf, other]

Title: Elements of String Cosmology

Authors: A. A. Tseytlin, C. Vafa

Comments: 34 pages

Journal-ref: Nucl.Phys. B372 (1992) 443-466

Subjects: High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th)

==============

 

probably that means cosmology is close to his heart.

 

I dont know what he was doing before 1991, back when he was still at Moskow, but in 1991 when he left USSR and went to UK (London) he was interested in cosmology.

 

To me at least, Tseytlin has a far more impressive trackrecord than Samir Mathur.

 

You are just finishing first year as a grad student at OSU, I would guess. Cosmology is hot. You need to hustle and get the General Relativity and mainstream Cosmology background that would enable you to do research in stringy-cosmology. My impression is a lot of string researchers are moving in the direction of the borderland of stringy-cosmology

 

as a Texan, I think you may intuitively understand borders

[BenTheMan]

Well, I have been at OSU for a year and I haven't seen Tseytlin once. He is a very good physicist, but one of the graduate students here told me that he likes his graduate students to be like TV dinners---he doesn't want to have to train them that much.

 

As far as Samir's track record---it depends on what you think of his fuzzballs. If you agree with his interpretation of stringy black holes, then he has explained some of the biggest problems in that field. Aside from that, he's probably the best teacher that I've ever had---I am very much looking forward to his String Theory lectures next fall.

 

Cosmology is very interesting, but it is not really my bag---I am much more interested in the particle physics side of things (and my advisor is Stuart Raby). Right now I am fighting with C++, teaching it to do calculations that I could do myself, but which would take me too long.

 

You are right, though---if I were REALLY looking for a faculty position, I'd find someone who was on the Planck Explorer experiment. Most of the WMAP grad students got post docs partly because they had access to the data (this is a rumor, to be clear!). Either that, or do particle phenomenology for LHC or ILC.

 

And I am a first year grad student, but in name only. I have a Master's degree from Baylor University, where I worked with Gerry Cleaver, also doing stringy model building.

[Severian]

There has been a recent upsurge in the number of people studying 'string phenomenology' in the US. But all that goes to show is that the string theorists don't understand the word 'phenomenology'.

[Royston]

I voted '1000', just because I'd imagine research in string to be steady, until some evidence that falsifies string theory comes about, which I don't think is very likely this year. Also, because it seems so popular (in the States at least) I would doubt there would be a slump even if new evidence did come to light...I get the general impression that advocates of string would probably come up with something else (not too sure on this...the sources of my general impression maybe bias.)

 

I must admit, I've never heard of the study of 'string phenomenology', do they have their own definition of the word, because as already mentioned, surely that's a contradictory term.

[ajb]

There has been a recent upsurge in the number of people studying 'string phenomenology' in the US. But all that goes to show is that the string theorists don't understand the word 'phenomenology'.

 

LOL.

 

I have been to many string or string inspired talks, by "phenomenology" they often mean constructing "realistic" low energy effective theories. The words "phenomenology" and "realistic" are to be understood in the broadest possible context!

[Martin]

...-I am much more interested in the particle physics side of things (and my advisor is Stuart Raby). ...

 

IMHO that looks like a good solid place to be

http://www.physics.ohio-state.edu/~raby/

 

with an advisor like Raby, my intuitive hunch is that you eat the bahr rather than the bahr eating you. since I can't interest you in cosmology, have a great time with particle physics!

[Martin]

As of now the numbers for the first 6 months are

2002: 651

2006: 571

2007: 451

 

I thought stragglers would bring that 451 number up further, but didn't at least yet.

 

Links to compare the published output for the first 7 months (same keywords) are

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2002&end_mon=07&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2006&end_mon=07&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2007&end_mon=07&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

currently these say 733, 621, 492 but one would expect that by the end of August stragglers will have brought the last number up some.

[Martin]

if anybody wants to do the numbers this table might facilitate

this is Harvard database, peer-review published output with

those five keywords (superstring, brane, M-theory, heterotic, AdS/CFT)

 

                  2002      2006      2007
whole year       1145       972          ?
first 6 months   651         571       451
first 7 months   733         621      511

 

although the first 7 months are over, by the end of August late additions can be expected to increase the figure of 511 for 2007 somewhat.

 

what we are trying to predict is the number where the question mark (?) is, which we won't know until sometime in January 2008.

 

thanks to all who have participated! Ten people have put in their forecasts, so far--they are:

 

Infinitus, Snail, Uzumat, BentheMan, Blike, CPL.Luke, bascule, myself, theCPE, and iNow.

 

Infinitus says "like 2002" (in other words around 1100)

Snail and Uzumat say "like 2006" (around 1000)

Ben says "slight decline" (900)

Blike, Luke, bascule, theCPE, and I say "slump" (800)

iNow says "mass exodus" (700)

[J.C.MacSwell]

Went with 800

[Martin]

Went with 800

 

Hi, MacSwell.

I am working on another index of string research output that measures trends in QUALITY as compared with this one which is mainly about quantity. Quality as perceived by the researchers themselves and demonstrated by whether they cite the other guy as contributing to their own work.

 

We did some forecast polls earlier about CITATION COUNTS of recent (past five years) papers. But since 2003 string citation counts basically dropped off the scale I had set up. I was counting the number of recent papers that got 100+ cites in a given year and it used to be 12-20, but now it is around 3 or so, much fewer.

 

so it feels like there is no more room on the downside of the scale! You can't so easily judge trends in a cramped scale and we need a new one. what I am thinking is to look at the EIGHT MOST HIGHLY CITED RECENT PAPERS in 2006, say, and average how many cites they got that year.

 

Here is the basic data for two years 2003 and 2006. Don't try it now, but the third link will probably get the same data when 2007 is tallied up, sometime in Feb 2008.

 

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2003/eprints/to_hep-th_annual.shtml

 

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2006/eprints/to_hep-th_annual.shtml

 

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2007/eprints/to_hep-th_annual.shtml

 

I added up the cites for the top eight in 2003 and they averaged 243.

The same average for the top eight in 2006 was 119.

 

Just to be really clear, for the 2006 I am not talking about cites papers got in other years. I take the eight recent (published 2002-2006) papers that got the most cites in 2006 and average up what they got that year. The 2003 is the same number but for papers published in the five years 1999-2003. I guess I could do it for 2004 and 2005 too but too lazy.

 

what would be a good range for forecast? 240 would be "like 2003" but that may be over-optimistic for a prediction poll.

 

maybe 160, 140, 120 ("like 2006"), 100, 80---and the question would be "which do you think it will be closest to?". That's 5 options with last year's in the middle, probably enough.

[Martin]

We now have 13 forecasts! I think that may be a record the SFN predictions polls that I know of. To keep the links up to date here are results for the first 8 months

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2002&end_mon=08&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2006&end_mon=08&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2007&end_mon=08&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

currently it comes to

2002: 806

2006: 692

2007: 570

This is for the first 8 months of each year (though stragglers may bring this year's figure up some during September)

 

As a reminder this is the publication count using the Harvard abstract search tool and

keywords = superstring, M-theory, brane, heterotic, AdS/CFT

What we are trying to forecast is the same publication index for the whole year

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2002&end_mon=&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2006&end_mon=&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2007&end_mon=&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

the whole year counts are:

2002: 1145

2006: 972

2007: ?

 

the question mark is what we are trying to predict. Forecasts so far are

 

 

Infinitus says 1100 (like the publication rate back in 2002)

 

Snail and Uzumat say 1000 (like last year, 2006)

 

YT2095 and BenTheMan say 900 (a slight decline)

 

Seven of us say 800 (slump) to wit: Bascule, Blike, CPL.Luke, GrandMasterK, J.C.MacSwell, Martin, theCPE

 

iNow says 700 (which would seemingly indicate a mass departure from the field!)

 

It is a highly favorable omen for YT and Ben that Bascule has predicted 800. This is because Bascule always loses prediction polls! He has in fact declared this fact recently in another thread, so we know it is true. If 800 can be ruled out in this way then the signs seem to be pointing towards 900 (a slight decline). But it's not over till it's over and unexpected things can happen!

[Martin]

Stragglers for August came in, upping the count to 585 for the first eight months of 2007

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2002&end_mon=08&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2006&end_mon=08&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2007&end_mon=08&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

currently it comes to

2002: 815

2006: 696

2007: 585

this is the publication count using the Harvard abstract search tool and keywords = superstring, M-theory, brane, heterotic, AdS/CFT

What we are trying to forecast is the same publication index for the whole year

 

Fourteen predictions registered so far:

 

Infinitus says 1100 (like the publication rate back in 2002)

 

Snail and Uzumat say 1000 (like last year, 2006)

 

YT2095, Lockheed, and BenTheMan say 900 (a slight decline)

 

Seven of us say 800 (slump) to wit: Bascule, Blike, CPL.Luke, GrandMasterK, J.C.MacSwell, Martin, theCPE

 

iNow says 700 (which would seemingly indicate a mass exodus.)

[Martin]

Fiveteen predictions registered so far:

 

Infinitus and Mr Skeptic say 1100 (like the publication rate back in 2002)

 

Snail and Uzumat say 1000 (like last year, 2006)

 

YT2095, Lockheed, and BenTheMan say 900 (a slight decline from last year)

 

Seven of us say 800, to wit: Bascule, Blike, CPL.Luke, GrandMasterK, J.C.MacSwell, Martin, theCPE

 

iNow says 700.

 

We're guessing the 2007 tally in this sequence:

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2002&end_mon=&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2006&end_mon=&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2007&end_mon=&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

1154, 976, ?

 

(links are to the Harvard physics abstracts

keywords = superstring, M-theory, brane, heterotic, AdS/CFT)

 

As a guide, the following are for the first nine months of the year, same years and keywords

 

2002: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2002&end_mon=09&end_year=2002&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2006: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2006&end_mon=09&end_year=2006&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

2007: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=00&start_year=2007&end_mon=09&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

 

939,772, 631

late arrivals will likely increase the last figure some

[Martin]

YT2095, Lockheed, and BenTheMan say 900 (a slight decline from last year).

...

 

Impressive guessing performance by YT, Lockheed, and Ben.

 

Back around August--September, before we even had complete results for August (!) they predicted total output for the year----papers with the indicated keywords. It looks like the actual number will be coming very close to what they said, namely 900.

 

YT has won forecast polls like this before.

Yourdadonapogostick has also proven to be a shrewd predictor, but he did not enter this particular round.

 

My regrets to Bascule. I was hoping he would win. (We both said 800.)

 

===================

Oh, how do I know the outcome will be close to 900 when it isn't the end of the year yet?

Because it has reached 850 and we still have a couple of weeks left to go.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?db_key=AST&db_key=PHY&qform=PHY&aut_logic=OR&author=&ned_query=YES&sim_query=YES&start_mon=&start_year=2007&end_mon=&end_year=2007&ttl_logic=OR&title=&txt_logic=OR&text=heterotic+M-theory+brane+superstrings+AdS%2FCFT&nr_to_return=100&start_nr=1&jou_pick=ALL&ref_stems=&data_and=ALL&group_and=ALL&start_entry_day=&start_entry_mon=&start_entry_year=&end_entry_day=&end_entry_mon=&end_entry_year=&min_score=&sort=SCORE&data_type=SHORT&aut_syn=YES&ttl_syn=YES&txt_syn=YES&aut_wt=1.0&ttl_wt=0.3&txt_wt=3.0&aut_wgt=YES&obj_wgt=YES&ttl_wgt=YES&txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

[ydoaPs]

Yourdadonapogostick has also proven to be a shrewd predictor

 

All hail YDOAPS in his omniscience!

[Martin]

yes you should be congratulated for not entering this particular contest. You might have blundered and spoiled your perfect record.

 

But shouldn't we have a few cheers for the actual winners, YT Lockheed and Ben? Wait! that might be bad luck. It is not over yet. We don't really know what will happen in the next two weeks.

 

The last time winners were announced on a forecast poll was here:

http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?t=28742

[Reaper]

yes you should be congratulated for not entering this particular contest. You might have blundered and spoiled your perfect record.

 

But shouldn't we have a few cheers for the actual winners, YT Lockheed and Ben? Wait! that might be bad luck. It is not over yet. We don't really know what will happen in the next two weeks.

 

True, but we can always round numbers to the nearest 100