the science shows on directv speak of a asteriod/meteor will hit earth is it real ?

[sandinista]

the science shows on directv speak of a asteriod/meteor that will hit earth is it real ?

 

i am not speaking of any sort of mayan prophesy or anything like that. i do remember an identified mass in space that was said to be feared to collide with earth. what it is called i dont know. i believe it was supposed to collide with earth around 2010 or so. give or take a decade. i realize this could happen at any time however what does it mean to have seen one (science) that would threaten the human species as well as the earth as we know it ?

 

i know its very bad to bring this up without having a name for the mass in space however ever since i have seen the documentary it has been a source of preoccupation for me as a living human living out life. i think that at a point in time i had memorized the name, did a google search, and found that people were activelty talking about it. tonights more general search failed.

 

would love to hear some educated feedback on this. its a source of existential angst for me. along with hurricanes, the rise of temperatures in houston and across the world.

 

thank you

[someguy]

I like you forget the name, but I seem to remember hearing about that asteroid. what i remember is that they thought it would collide with earth but they did further calculations and found it will come relatively close but will miss the earth. that's what i seem to remember.

 

i think i also heard of another one that they still weren't sure about but it is scheduled much later. i seem to remember thinking it would be after my lifetime.

[frgregory]

The most significant KNOWN risk right now concerns asteroid Apophis (about 320 metres in diameter). It will fly by close (inside lunar orbit) in 2029 and make a second pass in 2036. Impact probability is low but not if it's orbit is gravitationally shifted dangerously in 2029 .... and we won't know that until then by which time we would have a hectic 7 years to try and do something about it. Impact would cause regional devastation but it's not a planet killer. It wouldn't be very pretty though if it landed in a densely populated area. It could certainly take out a large modern city and much of its hinterland.

 

http://www.space.com/news/051103_asteroid_apophis.html

[Klaynos]

It's very difficult to say how it will be shifted too because we're not very good at multi-body forcasting...

[Spyman]

99942 Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.

 

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of October 19, 2006, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified; however, the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

 

Despite the fact that there is no longer any significant probability of an Earth impact, the Planetary Society is offering a $50,000 prize for the best plan to put a tracking device on or near the asteroid.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

[Severian]

The good news is that April 13th 2036 isn't a Friday (it is a Sunday).

[frgregory]

Tut tut, superstition on a Science Forum.

[D H]

would love to hear some educated feedback on this. its a source of existential angst for me. along with hurricanes, the rise of temperatures in houston and across the world.

 

Just to give you more to have angst about: forest fires, volcanos, west nile virus, bird flu, ... see http://www.disastercenter.com/ for more. Regarding the original issue: while Apophis doesn't appear to be a significant risk, there are many, many other potential impactors. NASA's Near-Earth Object Program http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ tracks the known potential impactors and assesses the risks of an impact.

 

Ok, so I fed your ansgt. Fortunately, the climate in Houston should not on your worry list, at least this year. We are 1.5^oF below normal for the 2007 through July http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/gls/normals/gls_summary.htm#2007. August has been below normal as well.

[Realitycheck]

320 meter diameter doesn't seem too large if we nuked it. Sounds like a really easy task to accomplish, especially 20 years in the future.

[insane_alien]

if we nuke it then we turn it into hypervelocity buckshot. chances are the separated chunks will still be big enough to penetrate the atmosphere and cause more widespread damage.

 

look at why later nukes were MIRV's rather than more powerful.

[frgregory]

Since many asteroids' internal structure is unknown and many appear to be conglomerates of rubble, "nuking" such an object would simply turn one Big Bomb into thousands of distributed Midi-Bombs ... which is not a good idea at all.

 

Most envisioned solutions involve veering the object off course ... gravitationally by parking objects nearby or thermodynamically by altering the reflective surface of the object ... which is a lot of paint!

 

Any solution involves taking action well in advance of arrival to optimise the effect (input-output). The real threat of NEO's is the one you don't see coming ... of which there are plenty in the sub-planet-killer class. We need better surveillance as well.

 

(cross posted with insane_alien)

[frgregory]

Maybe we can trace the arrow of causation for the demise of the dinosaurs earlier than the Chicxulub creator. Fancy that! .... me and you are here on account of a crowded asteroid "lane."

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6980468.stm

[DZane]

I read some idea's on cnn.com. Some include solar sail's, rockets to slow it down till we are out of the way, or explosions not to blow it up but to knock it off course.

[Spyman]

Dealing with threatening space rocks

 

Threatening asteroids that zoom past the Earth, fireballs in the sky seen by hundreds of people and mysterious craters which may have been caused by impacting meteorites; all make ESA’s studies on the Don Quijote mission look increasingly timely.

...

Those studies showed that it is probably the smaller pieces of rock, at most a few hundred metres across, rather than the larger ones that we should be more worried about for the time being.

...

In the second phase, another spacecraft would slam into the asteroid at a speed of around 10 km/s, while the first spacecraft watches, looking for any changes in the asteroid's trajectory. In this way, a mission involving two spacecraft would attempt to be the first to actually move an asteroid - and be able to measure it.

...

In its current design, the first spacecraft, Sancho, could reach any one of 5 or 6 small, nearby asteroids. Each one is no larger than a few hundred metres in diameter. At present, the mission planners have chosen to concentrate on Apophis, a small asteroid that can swing dangerously close to Earth on the outwards stretch of its orbit around the Sun.

 

http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM8SUB1S6F_index_0.html

[pioneer]

Could enough global warming act as a buffer against the possible nuclear winter caused by an asteroid collision? Using the current political climate, say the collision was going to occur in 10 years, so we decide we need to stop global warming. The temperature finally starts to fall, everyone is happy, then, " bang!" Oh crap, it got a just a little too cool.

 

If the global temperature was warmer, there would be far more water in the atmosphere. This would allow the fine dust to clump so it is able to get heavier and fall to the earth. This could shorten the nuclear winter. If the oceans were bigger, this increases the odds the asteroid will strike water and make less dust or add more water with the dust. There may be a temperature, where the asteroid simply creates a balance that lowers the temperature to perfect. If the asteroid makes the right size hole, this could lower the oceans to where coastal cities become more inland. The extra ocean water due to global warming may align them better. I am just messing around. The catatrophic odds are low across the boards.