the Smolin/string controversy

[Martin]

... the sales of a book are more indicative of the claritiy and approachability provided by it's author, and the marketing capicity of their publishing representative,...

 

I see we agree (whether or not you realize it).

Indeed I would claim that the raw SALES OF A BOOK DO NOT INDICATE THE MERIT of the book.

 

We all know of excellent books which, tragically, don't get read nearly enough.

 

I already know it's a great book. I don't need sales figures to tell me and they wouldn't prove anything. Brian Greene books sell for godsake!

The sales of a book merely gives a commonsense way to gauge the liklihood that it will have some impact on society's imagination or politics or education---on the way we think and the way our decision-makers act.

 

So, salesfigures could very well be a composite index of all the things you mentioned! Author's style, the publisher's marketing ability, the editor's ability to make up a catchy title. And many other factors.

 

So, if you understand this, why did you ask? It should be obvious why I want to track the sales of this book in particular because I want a gauge of its likely impact.

 

It already does seem---maybe---to be adding some steam to the string downsize (which the recent HEPAP report was very clear about and a number of indices show). But that is very hard to tell. The downsize is real---and may actually benefit the theory itself by making the community leaner & hungrier.

But it is not clear that the book has contributed to the downsizing.

[Royston]

book sales are a gauge of how widely the argument is getting out. The argument is aimed at academic administrators, committees, government research funding oversight, people who make decisions or whose advice and understanding influence decisions. also aimed at MEDIA people who write stuff that deans and department chairmen read and others in the science bureaucracy. George Johnson (NYTimes, LATimes) is a good example. And of course educated public opinion---which in itself also influences the other groups I mentioned.

 

Martin, sorry missed your response, and that makes a lot of sense, so thanks for the clarification.

 

I guess I was missing the bigger picture, and considered TWP as purely aimed at the public i.e Smolin delivers his arguments for the more estute and the dreaded media at talks / conferences et.c Though clearly a book spreads the message into the public domain, which in turn can influence the media...future physicists et.c.

[Martin]

Thanks for your response, Snail. I guess there are some non-trivial distinctions to be made here and I appreciate your taking the trouble to understand my point of view.

 

===========

UPDATE. We now have 5 forecasts entered in the poll!

 

Bascule predicts that a few days from now (1 october) the Smolin/string ratio will be 6

Ann predicts 3.

Lockheed and I say 2

and Snail says 1.

 

that spike is past, it looks like. If today were 1 October, Ann would be the winner.

at noon today the ratio was 3984.4/1396 = 2.9

Looks like Bascule is out of luck

[Martin]

that 2.9 figure was for 5 september, today 7 september, as close to noon as I could make it, it was

6584.0/1590 = 4.1

so there does seem to have been a spike in sales associated with the start of the semester and textbook buying, and it does seem to have eased off.

but so far it hasn't eased off as much as I (and maybe some other people) expected

[bascule]

Looks like Bascule is out of luck

 

Thus far my track record is 100% on your polls for picking the wrong answer every time

[BenTheMan]

Martin---it seems pretty difficult to use your index. It seems like it fluctuates pretty rapidly, which is bound to be the case when the book sales are small (as all physics book sales are, comparitively).

[Martin]

 

I don't find it so hard. Isn't it obvious that Lockheed and I are going to win?

And Bascule is ALWAYS wrong, that's the first lesson with every poll.

 

Why don't you give it a try? You can come in with Lockheed and me if you want. Or go in with Ann. She has a pretty good guess.

 

=============

Update: as of noon Sunday 9 september Smolin's book was #850 storewide and #2 on the physics bestseller list.

the ratio was 3286.4/850 = 3.9

AnnD guessed 3 and nobody guessed 4, so she would still be the closest.

 

===========

Update: couldn't make it at noon, so had to check at 11 AM today.

amazing. the ratio for Monday 10 september was

5209.4/959 = 5.4

if today were the target date of first October that would make Bascule the winner!

completely unexpected. I thought the high ratio was temporary artifact of a brief flood of college student customers. but the textbook binge is over.

============

 

I see we have 6 forecasts recorded now.

 

Bascule and Phil say Smolin'll be selling SIX times better than the topfive stringy average.

AnnD predicts THREE

Lockheed and I say sales will be TWICE as good as the five most popular stringy books average.

Snail predicts Smolin sales will be ON PAR with the five most popular stringy books, that is a ratio of one.

 

Curious gap between three and six. It's odd that no one has put in for the 4 or 5. Only wild optimists apparently, no moderate ones.

 

==========

as of noon Pacific 11 september (day of dreadful memory)

the Smolin/string ratio was 5.8

 

Smolin topped the "general physics" bestseller list

and in "physics" was second only to a biography of Einstein, the sort of thing which the more selective "general physics" excludes

 

Smolin salerank was 737

five most popular stringy books averaged 4294.8

they were

Greene elegant

Steinhardt endless universe

Greene fabric

Kaku parallel

Randall warped

 

the French translation of Smolin book has been at or near the top of french amazon physics bestsellers for a good bit of this year. IIRC came out in April 2007. At the moment French amazon is sold out, but book still doing OK

http://www.amazon.fr/gp/bestsellers/books/302107/

[J.C.MacSwell]

That was the point. What do TWP book sales have to do with anything except book sales?

 

As for the other books, if they're so critical of the string approach, why don't you average them in with the sales of TWP?

 

Not Even Wrong #72,021

Road to Reality #8,025

 

Oh right. Because if you did that then the string books would win:)

 

 

.

 

Is this right? I don't know the #'s but if TWP is out selling 5 other books by itself (correct me if I took that the wrong way), how could averaging it with two more put that groups average behind the average of the other 5?

 

Edit: OK average ranking, that's somewhat twisted, sales of the group of 5 could skyrocket, but if one stops selling entirely it drags the whole group to oblivion

[BenTheMan]

Is this right? I don't know the #'s but if TWP is out selling 5 other books by itself (correct me if I took that the wrong way), how could averaging it with two more put that groups average behind the average of the other 5?

 

Because Woit's book is selling THAT poorly.

 

Just do the average and you'll see.

[Martin]

I think Ben's arithmetic is impeccable here, MacSwell

 

Woit's book is just too negative---it is half academic history of the Problem and half pure critique of the stringy framework/approach.

 

so Woit's book doesnt sell much and has a huge salesrank

 

TWP salesrank is almost nothing and Woit is this large N

so if you add the two together and divide by 2 you get something that is about N/2

 

it hardly matters how Smolin's book is doing. As long as

Woit is this big N, if you average anything with it you will just get approximately N/2

 

======================

it never occurred to me anyone would want to include Woit in the picture. I havent read it and don/t watch the standings.

I like the positive message and the study of the herd-mentality.

 

I would say Ben's point of view is understandably POLARIZED. He is not likely to care what a book really says, only whether he and fellow string group members perceive it as AGAINST them, their community's interests.

they tend to identify the theoretical framework with themselves and themselves and their interest with the framework.

At least that has been my experience.

Smolin is "Anti-string"

Woit is "Anti-string"

so they are to be attacked indiscriminately

 

String morale-boost writings often refer to them as a single composite being: Smoit, Wolen, Swolen, whatever.

depersonalizing and demonizing.

 

I try to avoid this kind of polarized mentality. And the non-string QG community helps because they are accepting and appreciative of stringfolks. they always invite a string plenary talk at the conference and don't waste time talking about other people shortcomings. Loops 05 had ROBBERT DIJKGRAAF as invited speaker, and 3 or 4 minor stringfolks several who gave contributed papers. Loops 07 had MOSHE ROZALI----unfortunately by bad planning the times of Loops 07 and Strings 07 coincided and other string could not make it. these big conferences are planned way in advance.

 

The annual String conference, like Strings 07, does not invite a plenary talk from non-string. It is more closed off and has more tendency to ignore or deny the existence of others on the road.

 

You may not recognize but DIJKGRAAF is a big big name in string. IIRC he gave the closing summary talk at Beijing for the Strings 06 conference. And he gave one of the two public lectures in Toronto at Strings 05---the other being Lenny Susskind. So you can see the Loops organizers go all out to be open to outside voices. Rozali is not minor leagues either.

 

Styles of the communities are in stark contrast. I think the openness, self-criticism, listening to criticism has actually helped. Past 2 or 3 years have been ones of surprising growth and proliferation of nonstring approaches. Doing something right.

 

So I think there is stuff to be learned. I think Smolin is positive (including about good string features!) and has a real vision of the future of physics. I think people all too often get into a FOR OR AGAINST polarized way of thinking, which means they cant stand criticism or being contradicted.

 

and I wouldnt average Woit in even if he were high in the standings, because I know from his blog that he offers no vision of alternatives, therefore the degree of success of that book is not of special concern.

 

 

Edit: OK average ranking, that's somewhat twisted, sales of the group of 5 could skyrocket, but if one stops selling entirely it drags the whole group to oblivion

 

No that is not how it works. The makeup of the top five is always changing. The last time I counted there were over 12 string books on amazon including many would-be popularizations like Susskind Cosmic Landscape and Kaku Hyperspace

 

when one of the top five loses sales and sinks down another always rises up to take its place.

 

taking the top five has proven to give a fairly stable number. Sometimes believe it or not even Brian Greene sinks down but there is always some popular leader to keep up the average. So you can't tie it to particular titles.

 

if the whole string average starts to sink that will probably be a downward drift of the whole genre, and all five together will be on the decline.

[Martin]

Last time I reported was 11 September. Checked again at noon today, 14 September and Smolin/string ratio was

5318.6/1162 = 4.6

In case anyone's curious, the top five most popular stringy books that day happened to be

Greene elegant

Kaku parallel

Randall warped

Greene fabric

Steinhardt endless

===============

I learned today that Woit's book has been translated in French and a paperback first edition will go on sale 3 October, in just three weeks.

The title is Même Pas Fausse (not even wrong).

The French version of Smolin's book came out in April 2007 and has been selling well, often at or near the top of the amazon.fr physics bestseller list.

Today I noticed it was #4. It is a hardcover edition. The title is

Rien ne va plus en physique! : L'échec de la théorie des cordes

French amazon is sold out of "Rien ne va plus".

[Pangloss]

Now if I can only figure out what I'm going to do with 5,000 copies of this book.

[Martin]

Now if I can only figure out what I'm going to do with 5,000 copies of this book.

 

Pangloss, my heartfelt gratitude to you! So YOU are the person who has all this time been buying Smolin's book, making the sales numbers so good. This is real community spirit.

 

I have around 8000 copies of the French edition I can't figure out how to get rid of either, if you like to read French maybe we could trade?

[BenTheMan]

Woit's book is just too negative...so Woit's book doesnt sell much and has a huge salesrank

 

OBVIOUSLY A implies B.

[Martin]

Yes I do think that in science writing a simply negative message will not get as much attention as a positive one, other things being equal. People like to learn about stuff that is making progress and has some chance of being right.

 

this is a tangential issue, not really on topic here, so let's not argue about it here but instead start a new thread to discuss what sells science books, if you want to discuss that.

 

Personally I like Peter Woit and appreciate his blog but I am not sufficiently interested in string-think to want to read a book about why it is "not even wrong"----pure criticism. Smolin's book is positive, about making room for other ideas at the table. the progress of the other cars on the road. It is exciting and hopeful. So it is the SMOLIN book impact and sales I want to keep track of.

 

It might be part of a general shift in attitude and policy that i am seeing in other indicators as well.

===========================

 

Today at noon, 15 september, the Smolin book was #2 physics bestseller, after a biography of Albert Einstein, with salesrank 641.

 

the Smolin/string ratio was 6290.2/641 = 9.8

 

That's amazing, if this goes on Bascule might actually win the poll!

"The Trouble with Physics...and What Comes Next" is actually selling almost TEN TIMES BETTER

than the five most popular stringy books average.

 

The most popular stringy books, currently, are in descending order of popularity:

Greene elegant

Greene fabric

Kaku parallel

Randal warped

Steinhardt endless

 

===================

So far we have 6 predictions registered:

 

Bascule and Phil say that on 1 October the Smolin/string ratio will be 6

Ann D says it will be 3

Lockheed and I say 2

and Snail says 1.

 

the way it has been going it is out of the ballpark of what I expected a couple of weeks ago!

 

======================

Sunday 16 september, noon

3810.2/530 = 7.2

 

havent ever seen it like this. For comparison, I tracked these indices for four months Feb-May 2007 just to establish a baseline and it was

5683.8/2279.1 = 2.5.

That is, in Feb-May 2007 the top five string salesrank averaged 5683.8 for the fourmonth period and Smolin book averaged 2279.1

so that's my idea of "normal", did not expect ratio to go up over 5 even for one day spike, but now it has been over 5 for several days without any obvious explanation. maybe something sparked interest in Quantum Gravity issues boosting sales in all related books not only Smolin's but others. note string index down around 3800 meaning stringy booksales better than usual also.

 

Tuesday 18 september noon 4737.0/1030 = 4.6

If today were the 1 October target, Bascule and Phil would be the closest (they said 6 and Ann said 3). For some reason nobody has picked either 4 or 5 so far.

The five most popular stringy books were

fabric

elegant

warped

parallel

endless.

Maybe that september spike is finally coming down. 4.6 is as low as it's been for quite a while.

[Martin]

Thursday 20 september, noon. Ratio has come down in past couple of weeks and seems to be staying under 5 now.

Smolin/string = 5005.6/1059 = 4.7

 

Five most popular stringies today are

elegant

parallel

fabric

warped

endless

 

Judging by salesranks Smolin book is still selling over four times better than the average string topfiver.

[Martin]

Monday 24 September at noon

ratio = 6617.2/1581 = 4.2

 

five most popular stringy books were:

elegant

fabric

warped

parallel

endless

 

=============

Tuesday 25 September at noon

(getting down to the wire:D )

 

Smolin/string = 7108.8/1362 = 5.2

 

topfive stringy were:

elegant 3522

fabric 4288

hyperspace 7960

parallel 8888

warped 10,886

 

26 September noon

5370.8/1146 = 4.7

 

warped 4353

fabric 4631

elegant 5314

becker text 5339

parallel 7217

 

28 September noon

ratio = 6964.6/1267 = 5.5

 

fabric 2100

elegant 3084

warped 5996

fabric (hard) 11,125

endless 12,518

 

29 September noon

Smolin/string ratio = 4988.0/950 = 5.3

 

elegant 3030

fabric 3289

warped 3424

parallel 5527

steinhardt endless 9670

 

30 September noon

Smolin/string ratio = 5190.6/602 = 8.6

e3481

f4394

w4464

p4911

s8703

 

I just checked French amazon and Smolin's book (which came out in April 2007 in French translation *Rien ne va plus en physique! L'echec de la theorie des cordes* is selling like mad. It had salesrank 214 among all books.

http://www.amazon.fr/Rien-va-plus-physique-th%C3%A9orie/dp/2100507028

 

Something unusual is going on here. Remember that during the period February-May 2007 the Smolin/string ratio averaged a fairly steady 2.5.

Now the book is selling roughly 5 times better than the topfive stringy.

It has been up like that pretty much all month of September.

 

What is causing this? What is the source of the book's appeal? It has been out in the US for over a year now. Ordinarily time enough for things to settle down.

 

==================

Poll closed.

 

1 October noon pacific

Smolin book's rank #797

average rank of five most popular string #5165.6

 

ratio = 5165.6/797 = 6.5

 

in case anyone's curious the currently most popular stringies were

fabric 3203

elegant 4163

endless 5420

hyperspace 5494

warped 7548

 

Clear winners are Yourdadonapogostick, Phil, and Bascule!

 

Congratulations. Such a high prediction seemed completely unreasonable to me at the start of the month.