I cannot believe what I just saw today....

[Reaper]

Ok, so, supposedly I go to a university that is specifically geared for science and technology and whatnot. Mind you, it is one of the best ones in the nation for it, ranked among the top 100.

 

Well, anyways, today they had some winter festival or something, and they did have some good stuff like games, etc. But, it was in there where I saw the abomination: A psychic. Yes, that's right, for this event they actually wasted their money on having a psychic come to a university that specializes science and technology. And even worse, there was a big line for this quack. While I'm pretty sure there were some people that just went to him just so they could poke some fun, I can't help but feel that the majority of them were actually there to get him to predict the future, to get advice, and do all other sorts of nonsense. Can you believe that?!!! What on Earth were these people thinking!!?? I had believed that most people here in this particular school (given that it is ranked in the top 100 universities and is very selective) were at least knowledgeable in the art of baloney detection and had some ability at rational thought, but I think this validates the horrifying statistics that I've read about that were conducted on undergrad students and the general public (e.g. some 25-35% believe in witches if I remember correctly).

 

This event was organized by a group of students rather than faculty, so this abomination can be forgiven, at least for now. But sometimes it makes me wonder, just how many well educated, or moderately educated people believe in total nonsense??? How could they have sunk so low as to do that??? To waste school funds that could have been used on, well, more worthwhile things such as science. Or, why was this even approved?? What is this world coming to, where in even prestigious universities and tech schools you see them infested with the likes of astrologers, psychics, and other pseudo-scientific nonsense...

[Mr Skeptic]

Maybe they think BS stands for BullShit

[Mag]

I dont think thats so weird.

We have a hypnotist come to our school every year to put on a show. I havent gone yet, but I've heard its enjoyable (assuming you believe in it, lol).

[Mr Skeptic]

Hm, I like reading scifi and fantasy books even though I know half of it is BS, and the rest made up. How many of the attendees actually believed the psychic? Maybe they went for entertainment, or to study the art of BS.

[Sisyphus]

One thing you'll learn about university admissions is that no matter how selective they are and how good all admitted applicants look on paper, it is inevitable that a fair number of idiots will get in, especially as undergraduates. It's what "overachiever" means, and I have personally witnessed it at the most prestigious schools there are.

 

That being said, I agree with the others that most of them probably didn't believe one word of it, and were just going for entertainment value.

[insane_alien]

99% of them probably know its Bull excrement but still, if it floats your boat...

[MrMongoose]

How does being in the top 100 Universities in the country make your University one of the best?

 

I don't mean that to sound insulting, but maybe those in the top 5 shoot psychics on sight.

[Reaper]

How does being in the top 100 Universities in the country make your University one of the best?

 

I don't mean that to sound insulting, but maybe those in the top 5 shoot psychics on sight.

 

I don't know about that. I'm perfectly aware that more than half the student body are only in these universities just because they have lots of money.

 

 

99% of them probably know its Bull excrement but still' date=' if it floats your boat...

[/quote']

 

I very much doubt this. If that much knew, there probably wouldn't have been a large line for it.

 

One thing you'll learn about university admissions is that no matter how selective they are and how good all admitted applicants look on paper, it is inevitable that a fair number of idiots will get in, especially as undergraduates. It's what "overachiever" means, and I have personally witnessed it at the most prestigious schools there are.

 

yeah, I'm beginning to find that out . First semester alone and I'm already beginning to see a fair number of dropouts, alcoholics and crack-addicts.

 

That being said, I agree with the others that most of them probably didn't believe one word of it, and were just going for entertainment value.

 

I'm pretty certain that some of them just did it for entertainment value, but still, seeing a large line for it was quite unsettling.

[iNow]

What you have here, Lockheed, is a sampling bias. You are concerned because so many people were in line. Of course many of those in line were there because they believe in such rubbish. However, it ignores the fact that those who don't believe don't go, and you maybe saw a hundred or less in that line, despite the fact that several thousands at your uni did not participate. So... what... like 0.002% (or something) of the student body participated?

 

Not a valid sample.

Not a representative sample of the population.

Not enough to draw the conclusion you have, but more than enough to rant about it online for a while since it's so dumb.

[Reaper]

What you have here, Lockheed, is a sampling bias. You are concerned because so many people were in line. Of course many of those in line were there because they believe in such rubbish. However, it ignores the fact that those who don't believe don't go, and you maybe saw a hundred or less in that line, despite the fact that several thousands at your uni did not participate. So... what... like 0.002% (or something) of the student body participated?

 

Well, actually, I don't know how many people went there in total. So you really can't draw that particular conclusion, which is part of my concern. Second, the fact that they invested resources and time in the first place. All I saw was a large line at any given point in time the event was taking place.

 

 

Not a valid sample.

Not a representative sample of the population.

Not enough to draw the conclusion you have, but more than enough to rant about it online for a while since it's so dumb.

 

Maybe, but then surveys or observations of any kind only sample a small portion of a population (whether by town, nation, school, ecosystem, etc). By your logic you would have to discredit them too. Now that's not quite a valid conclusion to come to .

 

If anything, what it does a good job doing is showing how much are likely to believe in BS. The entire population doesn't necessarily have to be involved.

 

===================================================

 

Call it a rant if you will, but the reason I posted it up here is because it seems to me that it validates the statistics I've read about regarding belief in BS.

[Pangloss]

It's what "overachiever" means

 

ROFL! I never thought about that word in quite that context before. Cute.

[Glider]

Well, actually, I don't know how many people went there in total. So you really can't draw that particular conclusion, which is part of my concern. Second, the fact that they invested resources and time in the first place. All I saw was a large line at any given point in time the event was taking place.

But then, to assume that every member of the line was there because they believe in psychics would be an error. Some might. Others may just be curious, some may be absolute disbelievers who want to see if they can see how it's done. Some might just want a laugh. You can't infer intent.

 

Maybe, but then surveys or observations of any kind only sample a small portion of a population (whether by town, nation, school, ecosystem, etc). By your logic you would have to discredit them too. Now that's not quite a valid conclusion to come to .

Sampling, by definition of the term means a small group of an overall population. The key factor is whether or not the sample is representative.

 

In this case, whilst those queueing at the psychic's tent was a sample of the student population, it was not representative because it was a self-selecting sample (i.e. only those with some interest in the psychic queued). So, this sample posesses a characteristic the rest of the student population does not and so no conclusions based on their behaviour can be generalized to the student population.

 

If anything, what it does a good job doing is showing how much are likely to believe in BS. The entire population doesn't necessarily have to be involved.

All it does is indicate roughly what proportion at that University (who attended that day) have some kind of interest in psychics. What proportion of that proportion actually believe in psychics was never measured.

 

===================================================

 

Call it a rant if you will, but the reason I posted it up here is because it seems to me that it validates the statistics I've read about regarding belief in BS.

Only if you assume belief is the defining factor in that sample.

[Severian]

I once went to the may ball of one of Cambridge University's colleges (St Johns) and they also had a psychic. It was all just a bit of a laugh and no-one took him seriously.

[Reaper]

Only if you assume belief is the defining factor in that sample.

 

Yeah, ok, I realize that I overreacted, fair enough.

 

=================================

 

To be honest, I did actually think about standing in line for it to see what would happen if I asked questions that they would never be able to answer (such as what is the cure for cancer) .

[Glider]

I always wanted to go to Lourdes and ask people how many amputees have spontaneously regrown limbs.

[JohnB]

I had believed that most people here in this particular school (given that it is ranked in the top 100 universities and is very selective) were at least knowledgeable in the art of baloney detection and had some ability at rational thought

Intelligence and education often combine to make a person less discerning rather then more. If your belief was correct, con men would be out of a job, wouldn't they?

 

Consider that most people with degrees finish up in higher paying jobs. Ask yourself which is the better set of marks. Joe and Mary Average who you'll get maybe a grand out of, or some nice, successful, affluent people who you can scam for $10-$20,000 each?

[padren]

Sometimes its fun to utilize out-of-box methods to stimulate your mind. One of the reasons BS artists are still in business, is that what the person being BSed takes from it has to do more with them, than that what the BS artist is saying.

 

Someone does some astrological reading and tells you a bunch of things, one of which actually hits a nerve though a combination of coincidence and generalization...then you start thinking about something you should have been thinking about for a while already.

 

Have you ever done 'paper rock scissors' to decide what to do some evening when no one has a real preference? There's no 'fate' involved: either the first result is the one everyone mostly prefers, or someone pipes up with a 'best two out of three' and the group's actual opinion is revealed.

 

 

The short, most people will take things from it quite selectively...ignore things liable to be dangerously wrong, and feel stimulated by the things that resonate...so while its still not useful in the manner advertised, it serves a function that can be beneficial. (not to be confused with those that sucker fortunes out of widows to contact the dead, of course)

[JohnB]

Have you ever done 'paper rock scissors' to decide what to do some evening when no one has a real preference? There's no 'fate' involved: either the first result is the one everyone mostly prefers, or someone pipes up with a 'best two out of three' and the group's actual opinion is revealed.

Interesting. In a personal situation I use a coin. You'll find that at the moment the coin is in the air and spinning you'll suddenly know which way you want it to land. So you grab the coin and put in your pocket as you now know what you want to do.

One of the reasons BS artists are still in business, is that what the person being BSed takes from it has to do more with them, than that what the BS artist is saying.

Exactly, hence intelligent, educated, successful people are often easier to con than Joe Public as the first thing you do is arrange the con in a way that confirms their intelligence. (And everybody knows that only dumb people get conned. )

[KrisSam]

doesnt seem like a big deal. its just stupid entertainment. i doubt most of them believed in it. i'd go to make a joke of it. it's fun.

 

p.s. i dont think psychics and hypnotists are the same at all. psychics are bull shit. though hypnosis seems very possible.

[Psyber]

People who do well in exams and get into Universities don't always have a good grip on reality.

 

Some years ago I met a guy who had a PhD in atomic particle impingement patterns, and who had had work published as a co-author with his internationally known supervisor in a major international journal, but who couldn't see the connection between his inability to get a job at a University and his then position as national secretary for the Nazi movement in Australia.....

[MrMongoose]

Intelligence and education often combine to make a person less discerning rather then more. If your belief was correct, con men would be out of a job, wouldn't they?

 

Consider that most people with degrees finish up in higher paying jobs. Ask yourself which is the better set of marks. Joe and Mary Average who you'll get maybe a grand out of, or some nice, successful, affluent people who you can scam for $10-$20,000 each?

 

I don't see the connection between being less discerning and being a better target for a conman because of the potential gains.

 

If you were saying clever people are better targets for conmen because they're all thick, there would perhaps be some sense in what you said, but clearly not much.

[JohnB]

If you were saying clever people are better targets for conmen because they're all thick, there would perhaps be some sense in what you said, but clearly not much.

Not quite, clever people can be a better target because they're clever.

 

It may be hard to get the point across in a post, but I'll try.

 

Firstly, intelligent, successful people are a better mark because they have more money, hence you get greater return for about the same effort.

 

Secondly, a successful con has to agree with the basic beliefs of the mark. If not, he won't trust you and part with the cash.

 

Thirdly, most people believe that only fools get conned.

 

Fourthly, people of above average intelligence are exactly that more intelligent than most of the population. ie. Not fools.

 

Lastly, never appear smarter than the mark.

 

Let's put this together.

 

The mark is intelligent and successful. He is also therefore smarter than most people which generally means that he thinks he is smarter than the conman. (And the conman goes to pains to reinforce that belief.) You'll note that the mere fact the mark is successful reinforces his belief in his intelligence and abilities.

 

He also believes that since he is smart and only fools get conned, he can't be conned, especially by the con man who is obviously not as smart as the mark. The very idea that a smart person can be conned by a dumber person is illogical and laughable.

 

A well crafted con (depending on the avarice of the mark) can have built into it a way to make even more than the promised money that is never mentioned. The mark will see this and conclude that since he sees it and the con artist doesn't, a) He is definitely smarter than the conman and b) Once this thing gets rolling he can dispense with his "Associate" and really make a killing. Once his greed kicks in, it's all over bar the shouting.

 

Conversely, people of average intelligence are generally aware of that fact and therefore think that they are more likely to be conned. Consequently they have a tendency to do really irritating things like go to their accountant or solicitor and get advice. Also, when they're paying the mortgage and balancing the family budget, $1000 is a lot of money but if someone already has $500,000 then $10,000 isn't too much of an effort.

 

The above is a wide generalisation, there are obviously many very intelligent people who are smart enough to think "I know nothing about xyz so I'd better ask someone who does". The purpose of the original "Information Evenings" is to weed those people out early. a) Because they're not worth the effort to convert, b) So that they don't pass their doubts on to the others and c) There are generally quite a few others anyway.

 

If you can get 10 marks for $10,000 each over say, 3 months you've got $100,000 less expenses. To do the same with John and Mary Public you need to con 100 people out of $1,000 each and answer embarrassing questions from their accountants.

 

The net has changed the rules somewhat and made it easier to scam a large number of people for small amounts of cash on a regular basis. The net allows people from all over the world to form communities with others of similar interests. By trawling the net to find those whose beliefs can be exploited, you can get 2,000 people to send you $10 a month to further their particular cause. So you get $20,000 per month for no more effort than keeping a slick looking website up to date. If you can't get enough people from 1 community, run multiple scams.

 

The possibilities are absolutely staggering.

 

Anyway, must go. I have an "Information Evening" to organise.