The environmental debate thread

[swansont]

How I live shares the wealth of my success with many people. There are all those people that build my fossil fuel consuming recreational vehicles, those that distribute and sell them, those that produce the fossil fuels and those that distribute it. Then there are those that sell me breakfast, lunch, and dinner when I am away from home in the mountains enjoying nature and my friends. It's called the economy. Maybe you have heard of it.

 

My way sound much more generous than shutting down the economy based on articles published in research paper mills. I guess those people have to work too. Perhaps you think people would be better off if the wealth of the world were put into dumping iron oxide into the oceans to increase the number of little crustaceans. I know, maybe we could turn corn into alcohol and drive up food prices. That just might improve man kind’s lot.

 

 

Economics and politics don't belong in this discussion — that can be debated in another thread. Restrict it to the science, please.

 

 

 

Re:"Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have become famous (or infamous) for claiming to have found major problems with a recent reconstruction of the past climate (called the Hockey Stick because of the shape). Even though major and glaring errors have been found in their writings, they continue to be favorites with the global warming "skeptics." " You won't of course mind providing peer reviewed articles to back this up?

 

Are you asking for a peer-reviewed article that directly rebuts McIntyre and McKitrick's critiques? (not sure of the context of your last sentence) AFAIK the bulk of their work does not appear in peer-reviewed journals. If they are not, then it doesn't require a peer-reviewed rebuttal. Such an article likely wouldn't get published if the original article did not appear in a journal. Articles that link to peer-reviewed research should suffice in that case.

 

As far as their 2005 paper in GRL, there were rebuttals in that journal: von Storch and Zorita, and Huybers (pdf). And also this article in Journal of Climate

 

("Energy and Environment" is not generally considered a peer-reviewed source; it's not listed by the ISI)

[iNow]

I know they acknowledged the error... what you fail to understand is that McIntyre brought it to there attention. It says so in the article I showed you.

You have still evaded the original question put to you, which was a request to support your assertion that the site (realclimate.org) summarily dismisses information not in agreement with them.

 

Do you have any evidence that this has happened?

 

And please stop appealing to shame because I ask you to supply sources to support your claims. This is, afterall, a science forum. If you cannot support your claims and assertions with evidence then you should not be making them.

 

 

 

I have, your problem is that you fall into an all too comon method of discussion and debate online... that being that you refuse to accept self evident statements, and you refuse to accept, much less read, evidence that doesn't fit in with your belief system.

Well, that's great. I appreciate you trying to help me become better. I hope to be able to reciprocate that with you, and that we achieve mutual betterment in the process.

 

However, you continue attacking me and my style, instead of the data, and you are not sharing supporting evidence of your claims, so this suggests that your own debate style is also lacking.

 

 

You are correct that you did share ONE reference above, and you are correct that I wasn't satisfied with it's source. Knowing that the source of your citation has been involved with numerous falsehoods, has not been published in any peer-reviewed journals, and that this source has repeatedly been debunked for his continued misrepresentation of facts, I find my request for another source (or, more appropriate, sources) in support of your claims to be entirely valid (as I'm sure will most other readers here).

 

If you cannot find another source, that's fine, but it certainly would speak poorly to the substance, plausibility, and validity of your claims.

 

And yes, I would prefer that you offer .edu or .gov sources, and you will notice I've tried to lead by example on this by using such sources when supporting my own arguments (with the exception of the links I provided discussing McIntyre's continued intellectual dishonesty and questionable motiviations, despite one positive outcome of his work where he discovered an error in an early 1900s temperature data point and had it corrected).

 

 

 

If you need citation of that assertion, go read your own posts.

You mentioned that you knew what stawman means, so I am confident you also know what citation means, and a comment suggesting I go review my own posts here in the forums does not meet that criteria. Further, you are again appealing to shame, offering a mild ad hom, and continuing to avoid discussion of the data itself.

 

 

You've mentioned that you don't find me to be a good debater, and I'm okay with that. My strength exists in the accuracy of the data I share and defend. However, in the spirit of mutual betterment, I again ask that you stop attacking me directly and cease your appeals to shame and that you instead focus on the data itself and start supplying evidence and data in support of your claims and your position.

[JohnB]

Are you asking for a peer-reviewed article that directly rebuts McIntyre and McKitrick's critiques?

Since their original appeared in GRL after peer review, I thought it only fair that any reponse should be similarly peer reviewed.

Articles that link to peer-reviewed research should suffice in that case.

Fair enough, agreed.

 

If you don't mind, I'll get back to you about the two rebuttals. It's 2AM here now and I can barely see the words on the screen.

 

Don't forget, I only entered the thread to show that Sourcewatch was being somewhat dishonest by not including the fact that peer reviewed papers had been published and that Infopollution was an obvious shill site.

 

As I said, I'm taking your advice. Both Realclimate and Climateaudit have links to many papers and there are usually more linked to in the discussion threads. It's a hell of a lot of reading, but very interesting.

 

Cheers,

 

JohnB.

[SkepticLance]

I have been away for 24 hours, and the number of posts seems to have accelerated. No way can I reply to all of them.

 

There does seem to be an incredible amount of opinion cited. I look for good science, and see the opinions of scientists quoted as if that were good science. Something to be aware of.

[swansont]

I'm still catching up, too.

 

Yes, I agreed that the net cooling of 1940 to 1976 actually happened by 1950. That is off my point, though. The point I was making is that there was a temperature change (net cooling) which did not fit the forcings in the graph. The overall pattern of 1940 to 1976 is that of several coolings and warmings, which do NOT follow that predicted by greenhouse gases.

 

Neither did it follow that predicted by sulphate aerosol. Nor that predicted by aerosol and greenhouse gases together. To explain the pattern, it is necessary to include a powerful sunspot effect also. And the calculated solar forcings do not do this.

 

The problem with focusing on any short interval is that random fluctuations will dominate. The differences are about 0.1 ºC, and most of the trends and inflections are actually represented there. The question becomes, what is the stated precision on the model, and how much weather noise is there? I seem to recall that the noise term in Hansen's 1988 paper was supposed to be about 0.1 ºC (links to paper and analysis here ) and I imagine the model from the graph in question would be similar.

 

As I have argued before, scientists do not yet understand how sunspot activity changes global temperature, in spite of several theories. Until we understand the process, how the hell can we calculate it?

 

If you do not believe me, take another look at the graph of solar forcings. The biggest increase in sunspot activity, which drove a 0.4 C warming at a time when greenhouse gas increase was trivial, occurred from 1910 to 1940. Does the red line of solar forcings show this? No. It shows a trivial and short lived increase only. Why? Because the whole thing is not understood well enough to permit accurate calculations.

 

And to come to a final conclusion, if we do not understand something as powerful as sunspot forcings, and cannot calculate them, how can we make accurate predictions for the future?

 

If "scientists do not yet understand how sunspot activity changes global temperature" (a statement with which I do not agree), how can you state that the 0.4 ºC increase from 1910 to 1940 was due to sunspots?

[SkepticLance]

To Swansont

 

It can be a problem, can't it? You go off for a day and get back with so many extra posts on the thread that it is hard even to do justice to reading them, much less replying.

 

Incidentally, and I know this is irrelevent. I was just reading an article on exercising the brain. While this was directed more at elderly people who need to fend off geriatric cerebral sclerosis, it does apply to some extent to all ages. We all need to exercise the old grey matter to keep it in good working condition. The article actually stated that our kind of forum discussion is one of the best brain exercises. Not just the debate, but also the chasing up of references via google, and educating ourselves on the subject being debated, in order to be better debaters.

 

You mention the business of noise. I agree with you. I have always been a bit bemused by the signal to noise ratio problem in building up good data on long term climate changes. Take temperature. We have an average warming of 0.018 C per year (plus or minus a titch). This is the signal. The noise is overwhelming. If you take annual temperature difference, from the hottest place and time to the coldest, we have a range of well over 100 C. To extract a meaningful signal from all this noise is not easy.

 

In mentioning this, I am not disputing the data. Just bemused by the difficulty.

 

Swansont said :

 

"If "scientists do not yet understand how sunspot activity changes global temperature" (a statement with which I do not agree), how can you state that the 0.4 ºC increase from 1910 to 1940 was due to sunspots?"

 

This is the difference between theory and empirical data. I am saying that theory lags behind data. It is very clear that major historic temperature changes are correlated with sunspot activity change. This is not even in dispute. Even the IPCC agrees. When sunspot activity increases, and this is followed by temperature increase, at a time when other factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols etc cannot explain the warming, the conclusion is not hard to draw.

 

As far as the 0.4 C warming between 1910 and 1940 is concerned, this is associated with a trivial greenhouse gas increase (less than 1 ppm per decade of CO2). But it followed a major increase in sunspot activity. In addition, the 30 years prior also saw the same greenhouse gas increase associated with a cooling. That cooling was preceded by a drop in sunspot activity.

 

One of the reasons I concentrate on the last 30 years in discussing global warming is that earlier warmings may have been a 'return to normal' following the Little Ice Age. This means that those warmings are not anthropogenic global warming at all.

 

The Medieval Climate Optimum of 900 AD to 1200 AD was correlated with high sunspot activity. The cooling that followed, leading into the Little Ice Age was correlated with a drop in sunspot activity. And the warming leading up to 1940 was correlated with an increase in sunspot activity.

 

The action of sunspots and their association with warming and cooling is not really in dispute. Even during the last 30 years there are temperature fluctuations which 'coincide' with highs and lows in the sunspot cycle. It is really only the last 50 years that the broad pattern has been disrupted, and the first 20 years of that period was a net cooling, and thus cannot be described as anthropogenic global warming. Only the last 30 years is clear cut AGW.

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

This is the difference between theory and empirical data. I am saying that theory lags behind data. It is very clear that major historic temperature changes are correlated with sunspot activity change. This is not even in dispute. Even the IPCC agrees. When sunspot activity increases, and this is followed by temperature increase, at a time when other factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols etc cannot explain the warming, the conclusion is not hard to draw.

Correlation [math]\neq[/math] causation.

[iNow]

Also, please review post #61 which focussed specifically on sunspots.

[SkepticLance]

To the Cap'n.

 

While it is true that correlation does not necessarily equal causation, it is a necessity for causation. That which does not correlate is not a cause.

 

Where clear correlation exists, there are a few possibilities only.

 

1. The data is false. Not true in this case, since the correlation has been shown by numerous studies and for numerous historical warmings and coolings. As I said, even the IPCC agree.

 

2. Causation.

 

3. Both the phenomena that correlate to each other are caused by a third factor. If you can think of a third factor that can cause both sunspot activity and global temperature change, please let us know.

 

A further clue to this is timing. Where factor A causes Factor B, we see A preceding B. If both are caused by factor C, then they tend to occur together.

 

In the sunspot activity vs warming/cooling phenomenon, we see the change in sunspot activity preceding the change in global temperature. Pretty good evidence.

 

One of the more serious factual flaws in Al Gores ridiculous movie related to the relationship between warming and CO2 increase in the interglacial warmings prior to the present stage, over the last million years of the current Ice Age. He claimed that this correlation demonstrated that CO2 increase caused warming back then.

 

When you look at those warmings, you see the Earth's temperature increasing without CO2 increase initially, and CO2 starting to increase about 800 years later. Clearly, the warming was instigated by something other than CO2. While it is possible that CO2 was part of the mechanism that extended the warming period, it was not the cause, as claimed by Al Gore.

 

In that case, correlation definitely was not causation.

 

To iNow

 

Your post 61 was a collection of people's opinions. It does not even need replying to. If you want to argue, use science.

[iNow]

Where clear correlation exists, there are a few possibilities only.

 

1. The data is false. Not true in this case, since the correlation has been shown by numerous studies and for numerous historical warmings and coolings.

 

2. Causation.

 

3. Both the phenomena that correlate to each other are caused by a third factor.

So, when it rains, more people carry umbrellas. The carrying of umbrellas is correlated with rain. Which of your three describes this instance? Your comments are analogous to arguing that people carrying umbrellas cause it to rain.

 

 

To iNow

 

Your post 61 was a collection of people's opinions. It does not even need replying to. If you want to argue, use science.

 

Excuse me. Look again. I posted ten specific scientific sources. These were not collections of people's opinions, nor do I appreciate your insinuation that I have somehow failed to argue your comment from a scientific standpoint.

 

Look again at what I shared.

[Reaper]

I will repost iNow's links so that you, SkepticLance (and others on here), don't make the mistake of overlooking or misinterpreting them again:

 

(emphasis mine):

 

http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/h844264320314105/fulltext.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05072.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-lure-of-solar-forcing/

 

 

 

 

 

 

It has been extremely well documented now that solar changes since about 1950 have a very minimal forcing, and maybe even negative.

 

 

 

 

Here's some more food for thought:

 

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model -- Ammann et al. 104 (10): 3713 -- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

 

Changes in Solar Brightness Too Weak to Explain Global Warming - News Release

http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/proceedings_a/rspa20071880.pdf

 

Max Planck Society - Press Release

 

Final Report of Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1

 

ATMOSPHERE: Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere -- Laštovička et al. 314 (5803): 1253 -- Science

 

 

 

 

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf

 

 

 

Now SkepticLance, would you please demonstrate to us where there are errors and/or "mere opinions"? And, we would especially like it if you could cite other independent and/or peer-reviewed sources that would confirm this.

[SkepticLance]

To iNow

 

Your rain/umbrella analogy is number 2 on my list. Rain causes people to carry umbrellas. Causation. Reversing what is cause and what is effect is simply a silly and meaningless trick on your part. I am sure you knew that and were just trying to throw a red herring.

 

On the business of opinions. There are literally dozens of web sites run by scientists which are sceptical to global warming. If I were to quote such a web site and present one of their opinions, iNow and Lockheed would quite rightly jump on me and pour scorn over that opinion. It also works the other way. If iNow presents the opinion of a scientist who supports the catastrophist's view, then I do not even have to reply. It is an opinion and hence worthless.

 

If you read the points that iNow presented, most are pure opinion. I need the data, not someone's interpretation.

 

The following statement :

"It has been extremely well documented now that solar changes since about 1950 have a very minimal forcing, and maybe even negative."

is not even pertinent to the discussion.

 

I have not suggested that solar forcings after 1950 had much effect. If you insist on pushing the idea that recent solar forcings are weak, when I have not argued otherwise, then you are simply posting a red herring.

 

The examples I gave for sunspot activity change causing warming or cooling were :

 

Medieval Climate Optimum - 900 AD to 1200 AD Warm due to high sunspot activity.

Cooling from 1200 to 1500 AD due to reducing sunspot activity.

Little Ice Age from 1500 AD to 1800 AD - very low sunspot activity.

Warming from 1800 AD to 1940 due to increasing sunspot activity. (allowing for a bit of up and down during that time)

 

After 1950, sunspot activity was quite constant, except for the standard 11 and 22 year cycles, which produced a warming/cooling effect of maximum 0.2 C. Thus explains some of the fluctuations in temperature change over that time, but is not any significant part of overall warming.

 

 

If you have good data to show that sunspots were not much of a driver of warming/cooling in the period of 900 AD to 1940, then post it. Please don't refer to the last 50 years, which is simply putting words in my mouth.

[iNow]

If iNow presents the opinion of a scientist who supports the catastrophist's view, then I do not even have to reply. It is an opinion and hence worthless.

 

Precisely what, in that large list of references I shared, do you suggest is opinion?

 

You have also failed to supply ANY links in support of your position above.

 

 

 

If you have good data to show that sunspots were not much of a driver of warming/cooling in the period of 900 AD to 1940, then post it. Please don't refer to the last 50 years, which is simply putting words in my mouth.

It's been posted, you <ad hom> <ad hom> <ad hom> piece of <ad hom> <ad hom> ignorant <ad hom>...

 

 

Un-fukking-believable.

 

 

Try reading the links before dismissing them. At least I give that level of respect to you (on those rare occasions when you do, in fact, share a link to support your points).

[SkepticLance]

For example

 

"http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...1-chapter2.pdf

 

The combined anthropogenic RF is estimated to be +1.6 [–1.0, +0.8]2 W m–2, indicating that, since 1750, it is extremely likely that humans have exerted a substantial warming influence on climate. This RF estimate is likely to be at least five times greater than that due to solar irradiance changes. For the period 1950 to 2005, it is exceptionally unlikely that the combined natural RF (solar irradiance plus volcanic aerosol) has had a warming influence comparable to that of the combined anthropogenic RF.

Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions. "

 

The bit in bold is pure opinion. At least, if it refers to total solar effect, including sunspots. One of the problems we have is that the energy output of the sun, as measured in the last few decades by satellites, has been increasing only to a very small degree, and cannot be a significant contributor to global warming. I get the impression that some people extend this backwards in time to before we had direct measurements and assume that changes in solar activity cannot be a significant contributor to global warming/cooling.

 

You also posted a number of references which referred only to the time after 1950. Since you are totally aware of the fact that I have NEVER claimed sunspots had any significant effect on global warming after 1950, I can only assume this was a mischievous and dishonest attempt to mislead.

 

Incidentally, after your last post, go and wash out your mouth with soap and water!

[iNow]

The bit in bold is pure opinion.

It's getting humorous how blatant your misrepresentations have become. That "opinion" is supported by the following:

 

 

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[jryan]

To iNow

 

You would be wise to never use the IPCC summary report, nor it's list of signatories (actually contributors) as a verification of anything.

 

Paul Reiter completely dismantled the validity of that report, and the assumed agreement of it's contributors with the final summary.

 

Pay close attention to sections 13 through 18.. though you would be well advised to read the whole thing.

 

Now for the rest of your previous statement:

 

You have still evaded the original question put to you, which was a request to support your assertion that the site (realclimate.org) summarily dismisses information not in agreement with them.

 

Do you have any evidence that this has happened?

 

For someone as quick to claim that your statements were misrepresented, and that your questions are never answered, you sure have a habit of misrepresenting peoples statements and inability to answer questions.

 

Where did I say "summarily dismiss information not in agreement with them"?

 

An example of what I WAS saying, and not what you misrepresented me as saying, can be seen here.

 

While a supposed professional climate scientist calling another fellow climate scientist "stupid", among other things, is out of line in a study review... it does shed light on where you picked up your debate style.

 

You can read a very interesting observation of this childish realclimate article here.

 

 

And please stop appealing to shame because I ask you to supply sources to support your claims. This is, after all, a science forum. If you cannot support your claims and assertions with evidence then you should not be making them.

 

And I do when I feel is necessary. But when my commentary is self evident, or uses YOUR data as evidence, you really shouldn't be asking me for any.

 

Well, that's great. I appreciate you trying to help me become better. I hope to be able to reciprocate that with you, and that we achieve mutual betterment in the process.

 

Hey look! We agree!

 

However, you continue attacking me and my style, instead of the data, and you are not sharing supporting evidence of your claims, so this suggests that your own debate style is also lacking.

 

I have already commented on your posts.. though I wouldn't really call them "data". You posted several graphs a while back, and several opinion pieces. In many cases others have responded to you before I had a chance, and therefor there was no need for me to add a "yeah, what about that question that other guy asked you?". This method cuts down on the noise and repetition in these discussions. Where I have commented on your documents, you have chosen to call my responses insufficient.

 

For example, in the often sited graph of models (Mann, Jones, and others) I commented on how inaccurate those models are when they had to rely on historical proxy data. This is self evident as the lines diverge dramatically on the graph as you travel the X axis back through history. They only agree when the answer was already known. I do not need to provide external evidence for that observation. It is self evident.

 

When you inquired about McIntyre, and his correction of the NASA data, I provided evidence. I can only assume that you accepted that, because you dropped the subject. I, and other posters, targeted your sources and fairly well demonstrated that they were not telling the truth about McIntyre (ie. he actually has published peer reviewed material... his NASA paper was actually peer reviewed.. hence the correction by NASA... unless you want to assume that NASA took a non peer reviewed critique, and then didn't review it's correction either before changing their data... I suggest you not try that gambit as it is a lose-lose proposition for you)

 

You are correct that you did share ONE reference above, and you are correct that I wasn't satisfied with it's source. Knowing that the source of your citation has been involved with numerous falsehoods, has not been published in any peer-reviewed journals, and that this source has repeatedly been debunked for his continued misrepresentation of facts, I find my request for another source (or, more appropriate, sources) in support of your claims to be entirely valid (as I'm sure will most other readers here).

 

Your assault on the source actually perpetuates a falsehood of it's own. Go back and read. Also, McIntyre and McKitrick's critique of the 1999 Mann study was published in Geophysical Research Letters, a peer reviewed journal (article: Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005 32 L03710)

 

Funny how that is, eh? I make a statement and provide a source, you rush out and find some method to impugn the source, provide a link to something damning my source... and it turns out YOUR source is actually the one demonstrably distributing falsehoods.

 

Furthermore, there is a funny thing about all this: Mann's study was peer reviewed, and McIntyre's critique was peer reviewed.. yet only one is right.

 

Yet the primary defense of Mann comes from RealClimate.Org.... a non-peer-reviewed blog for which Mann is a primary contributor.

 

Hmmmmmm.... I'm siding with McIntyre. Do you know if Mann has published a peer reviewed rebuttal (honest question)?

 

If you cannot find another source, that's fine, but it certainly would speak poorly to the substance, plausibility, and validity of your claims.

 

As you may be figuring out by now: On this subject it is not ME who needs to be finding a new source.

 

And yes, I would prefer that you offer .edu or .gov sources, and you will notice I've tried to lead by example on this by using such sources when supporting my own arguments (with the exception of the links I provided discussing McIntyre's continued intellectual dishonesty and questionable motivations, despite one positive outcome of his work where he discovered an error in an early 1900s temperature data point and had it corrected).

 

 

And as I showed, the .gov site that you chose to link has been shown to be in error in the past concerning temperature data... by the way, I also posted another McIntyre article (which is easily verified by going to NASA's webpage) that shows that their very own GW FAQ relies heavily on RealClimate citation.

 

Also, before you get ahead of yourself... your citations are as rife with .org, .com and many other non .edu or .gov sites.

 

And your initial graph post had some .gov links, some no citation graphs, and a previous favorite of yours "SkepticalScience.com". I'm glad you stopped using that. Either way, regardless of the source of your links, they have often left several here asking questions regarding the actual certainty you draw from them. Few seem to be even designed to be convincing...

 

You mentioned that you knew what stawman means, so I am confident you also know what citation means, and a comment suggesting I go review my own posts here in the forums does not meet that criteria. Further, you are again appealing to shame, offering a mild ad hom, and continuing to avoid discussion of the data itself.

 

Ah, but I HAVE discussed the data you provided, from the very beginning. You object to the fact that I am pointing out curious things demonstrated by many of your sources without posting some peer reviewed paper that also carries my observation. I can say that the model graph you posted clearly shows that they don't agree beyond the small windows where the measurements being modeled were already known.... this is self evident.

 

You've mentioned that you don't find me to be a good debater, and I'm okay with that. My strength exists in the accuracy of the data I share and defend.

 

Well, on one hand you have the accuracy of the data that you share... on the other hand you have the interpretation of the data you share. On the interpretation we diverge.

 

But all your data in not accurate, as I have displayed in this very post.

 

However, in the spirit of mutual betterment, I again ask that you stop attacking me directly and cease your appeals to shame and that you instead focus on the data itself and start supplying evidence and data in support of your claims and your position.

 

My attacks on you were with regards to your attacks on others (and me). You stop doing that and you will be amazed at my restraint.

 

As for focusing on the data... that is a funny statement as our biggest disagreement is with regard to my comments on the data. How do I focus on it and discuss it without commenting on it? If I see something in your data that contradicts your statement of what that data shows, I will say that. That is "focusing on the data"... I suggest you focus on the oppositions data rather than attempt to discredit the oppositions sources... so far your attempts seem to be backfiring.

 

That is not an ad hominem, by the way, that is just me focusing on the data again.

[SkepticLance]

iNow said :

 

" That "opinion" is supported by the following:"

 

You totally overestimate my credulity. I am not (nor is jryan) that easily sucked in. So you cut and pasted the entire bibliography for a scientific paper. Wow! Am I expected to be impressed? I seriously doubt you obtained and read even one of the items you pasted.

 

Now why don't you post some actual evidence?

[swansont]

You mention the business of noise. I agree with you. I have always been a bit bemused by the signal to noise ratio problem in building up good data on long term climate changes. Take temperature. We have an average warming of 0.018 C per year (plus or minus a titch). This is the signal. The noise is overwhelming. If you take annual temperature difference, from the hottest place and time to the coldest, we have a range of well over 100 C. To extract a meaningful signal from all this noise is not easy.

 

The temperature difference between locations isn't the source of the noise, though. The noise is because any given location can be hotter or cooler in any year because of local weather conditions. Which means that short-scale deviations between model and data that are below the noise threshold aren't statistically significant.

 

 

"If "scientists do not yet understand how sunspot activity changes global temperature" (a statement with which I do not agree), how can you state that the 0.4 ºC increase from 1910 to 1940 was due to sunspots?"

 

This is the difference between theory and empirical data. I am saying that theory lags behind data. It is very clear that major historic temperature changes are correlated with sunspot activity change. This is not even in dispute. Even the IPCC agrees. When sunspot activity increases, and this is followed by temperature increase, at a time when other factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols etc cannot explain the warming, the conclusion is not hard to draw.

 

As far as the 0.4 C warming between 1910 and 1940 is concerned, this is associated with a trivial greenhouse gas increase (less than 1 ppm per decade of CO2). But it followed a major increase in sunspot activity. In addition, the 30 years prior also saw the same greenhouse gas increase associated with a cooling. That cooling was preceded by a drop in sunspot activity.

 

One of the reasons I concentrate on the last 30 years in discussing global warming is that earlier warmings may have been a 'return to normal' following the Little Ice Age. This means that those warmings are not anthropogenic global warming at all.

 

The Medieval Climate Optimum of 900 AD to 1200 AD was correlated with high sunspot activity. The cooling that followed, leading into the Little Ice Age was correlated with a drop in sunspot activity. And the warming leading up to 1940 was correlated with an increase in sunspot activity.

 

The action of sunspots and their association with warming and cooling is not really in dispute. Even during the last 30 years there are temperature fluctuations which 'coincide' with highs and lows in the sunspot cycle. It is really only the last 50 years that the broad pattern has been disrupted, and the first 20 years of that period was a net cooling, and thus cannot be described as anthropogenic global warming. Only the last 30 years is clear cut AGW.

 

 

No the activity is not in dispute (though the terminology used is often "solar activity" or "solar irradiance" vs "sunspot activity" since ultimately it's the energy that reaches us that directly affects temperature.)

 

What I'm disputing is the quantitative conclusion — how much of an effect there is. You objected to the solar forcing term as being too small in one model, and this requires a quantitative analysis which you haven't provided or cited.

 

Let's take the temperature increase from ~1910-1940 at 0.4 ºC as correct. Now, the CO2 increase then was "trivial" but how much is that? Half of the recent increase? A third? Because that still gives an increase of ~0.15 - 0.2 ºC as being due to CO2 (0.15 - 0.2 ºC per decade, three decades, and take a third of that). And, as we've discussed before, ~1910 represents the end of some high volcano activity, which had caused significant cooling. So what does that contribute? 0.1 - 0.2 ºC? The combination of those two take up more than half of the observed increase.

 

So how can you conclude that the solar forcing term is wrong?

 

An example of what I WAS saying, and not what you misrepresented me as saying, can be seen here.

 

While a supposed professional climate scientist calling another fellow climate scientist "stupid", among other things, is out of line in a study review... it does shed light on where you picked up your debate style.

 

You can read a very interesting observation of this childish realclimate article here.

 

I searched the realclimate entry, and the only two instances of "stupid" occur here:

 

"Prelude: It's the physics, stupid

 

…which of course is a paraphrase of Bill Clinton's famous quote regarding the economy. We put the last word in small letters since we've learned that it is not a good debating technique to imply (even inadvertently) that those who are having trouble seeing the force of our arguments might be stupid."

 

So where, exactly, is a "fellow climate scientist" being called "stupid?"

 

I also can't help but note two other things:

(1) The climateaudit link does not accurately reproduce the above quote, and (more importantly)

(2) This has absolutely nothing at all to do with the science invloved. It's a diversion. It's inappropriate.

 

————

TO ALL

 

Dial it back, folks. The red-herrings and ad-homs (as above), the other fallacious statements and sniping. There's no need to claim misrepresentation or add name-calling. Correct it with out the ugly window dressing, please. No, not please. Just do it.

 

———

 

As to the use of "opinion." The way I use it, if it has a scientific backing, it's not opinion. Justify your claims; primary references preferred, or at least something with a written summary that contains the topic at hand — I assume I am not alone in not wanting to have to read a link within a link within a link and sort through the intervening junk to get the point.

 

Conversely, claiming that a conclusion of a scientific paper is "opinion" doesn't fly. If you think the conclusion is unjustified, point out the flaws in reaching it.

[JohnB]

Furthermore, there is a funny thing about all this: Mann's study was peer reviewed, and McIntyre's critique was peer reviewed.. yet only one is right.

While that is certainly true, it is yet to be decided.

Do you know if Mann has published a peer reviewed rebuttal (honest question)?

Yes, he has. If you have a look at the Climateaudit page here you will find links to (I think) most of the original papers and the "Comments on" type papers and where they were published.

That "opinion" is supported by the following:

Which ones?

[jryan]

The temperature difference between locations isn't the source of the noise, though. The noise is because any given location can be hotter or cooler in any year because of local weather conditions. Which means that short-scale deviations between model and data that are below the noise threshold aren't statistically significant.

 

It can also be caused by a failure to properly piant measuring stations. NASA thought they had a grasp on statistically removing this noise, rather than actually painting stations regularly. They failed to properly adjust for these noise sources. This is partly what lead to the incorrect data on the NASA site.

 

Granted, this error is for a land area that is only 2% of Earth's surface... but are we skeptics supposed to just automatically assume that stations in third world countries are better maintained, or that the the noise is better accounted for?

 

Similarly the Mann study.. which McIntyre citiqued, and the critique was published in a peer review journal. Am I supposed to assume that a non-peer reviewed rebuttal is sufficient from a site for which Mann is a primary contributor?

 

Most skeptics, and cetainly all the ones I have read here, find that the number of errors that are well documented is reason enough to not accept everything coming out of IPCC, or from Mann etc. as correct by default? Even if the anti-skeptics were to provide verification that McIntyre accepted a billion dollars from Exxon to do his work, or that he made mistakes in other studies, it doesn't change the fact that he has successfully aired problems with he data.

 

I don't think any of us on the skeptic side are saying that we should accept the work of skeptics automatically as true anymore than we would say that Mann, IPCC, NASA or Al Gore should. What worries me is I rarely if ever see such a moderate view from the other side. iNow is just one of many examples. In a rush to discount McIntyre, many of his linked sources have made gross errors in their evaluations of McIntyre, and can only seem to cast doubt on him as a person through the old "connection to energy companies" and outright falsehoods.

 

I searched the realclimate entry, and the only two instances of "stupid" occur here:

 

"Prelude: It's the physics, stupid

 

…which of course is a paraphrase of Bill Clinton's famous quote regarding the economy. We put the last word in small letters since we've learned that it is not a good debating technique to imply (even inadvertently) that those who are having trouble seeing the force of our arguments might be stupid."

 

So where, exactly, is a "fellow climate scientist" being called "stupid?"

 

 

This is like if I were to say "I have been told by my mom that I should never call anyone an idiot. So I will not call you that.". This is a very transparent attempt to take the low road but claim the high ground.

 

 

I also can't help but note two other things:

(1) The climateaudit link does not accurately reproduce the above quote, and (more importantly)

(2) This has absolutely nothing at all to do with the science invloved. It's a diversion. It's inappropriate.

 

It's the intent, stupid.

 

 

 

 

 

I certainly don't believe you are stupid... but I am simply doing my own take on the realclimate title. Had I not explained that that statement is 100% against my own belief, what would you have felt the meaning was?

 

The trouble is that the author of that paper doesn't ever say that he doesn't believe that Courtillot is stupid... all he states is "We put the last word in small letters since we've learned that it is not a good debating technique to imply (even inadvertently) that those who are having trouble seeing the force of our arguments might be stupid.".... are we to assume that he "inadvertantly" included the word "stupid"? Does his PC have no edit function? This is a weak sidestep.

 

This is similar to a linked realclimate article (linked as it appeared in the statement above) where Gavin poo poos Crichton mentioning the use of private jets by many pro-AGW glitterati as a simple crowd pleaser and not paticularly useful (on this I agree), but then later in the same post metions that all of his debate team refused to take the SUV limo five blocks to the auditorium, where as all of Crichton's team had. This is a bizarre statement on many levels:

 

1) It isn't hypocrisy if Crichton does it as he isn't in the pro-AGW camp (though he does agree with the existence of some anthropogenic forcing)

 

2) If both Gavin and Crichton's statements are true, the scale of the two infractions is comically out of balance in favor of Crichton.

 

3) After stating that he and his fellows "are scientists, and we talk about science and we're not going start getting into questions of personal morality and wider political agendas", he goes on to do the opposite on the pages of Realclimate.org.

 

This is in line with my previous claims as to the questionable methods of debate used at Realclimate.org.

 

here you will find links to (I think) most of the original papers and the "Comments on" type papers and where they were published.

 

Thank you for that JohnB! I will read it when I have time to digest it fully.

 

One question though... are letters to the journal Nature considered peer reviewed publications?

[iNow]

One question though... are letters to the journal Nature considered peer reviewed publications?

No.

 

 

 

As to the use of "opinion." The way I use it, if it has a scientific backing, it's not opinion. Justify your claims; primary references preferred, or at least something with a written summary that contains the topic at hand — I assume I am not alone in not wanting to have to read a link within a link within a link and sort through the intervening junk to get the point.

 

Conversely, claiming that a conclusion of a scientific paper is "opinion" doesn't fly. If you think the conclusion is unjustified, point out the flaws in reaching it.

 

Thank you.

[SkepticLance]

To swansont

 

I totally agree with your comments about ad homs etc. Even when we disagree, we should try to make our disagreement friendly and polite.

 

Back to sunspots.

 

You said

 

"since ultimately it's the energy that reaches us that directly affects temperature.)"

 

One of the theories of the mechanism by which sunspot activity affects global temperature is by the indirect route of ..

 

High sunspot activity means high solar magnetic activity

This affects the magnetic field around Earth (not a theory - it has been measured)

This diverts cosmic rays away from Earth (also confirmed by direct measurement)

This reduces ions that act as nucleation points for water vapour

This reduces cloud cover

This reduces Earth's albedo

This causes warming

 

Some satellite studies have shown that cloud cover drops during periods of high sunspot activity, which fits this theory.

 

The point is that, if this theory is correct, then the effect of high sunspot activity is not dependent on direct energy transfer - sun to Earth. Of course, it is only a theory, and there are other theories also.

 

You also said

 

"this requires a quantitative analysis which you haven't provided or cited."

 

It would be nice to do so. However, as I pointed out, if we don't understand the mechanism, how can we calculate the forcing? The closest we can get to is a description of the correlation between sunspot activity and temperature change. This has been described many times.

 

"Let's take the temperature increase from ~1910-1940 at 0.4 ºC as correct. Now, the CO2 increase then was "trivial" but how much is that? "

 

Actually, about 10% of recent increases. 1870 to 1940 saw an increase in CO2 of approx 290 ppm to 303. Less than 0.2 ppm per year. The last 30 years, it has been a bit under 2 ppm per year.

 

1880 to 1910 was cooling. That may have been influenced by vulcanism, but also included a drop in sunspot activity. 1910 to 1940 was a period of trivial greenhouse gas increase, but substantial warming - almost as much as recent warming, and 'coincided' with the largest increase in sunspot activity for a thousand years.

[swansont]

"since ultimately it's the energy that reaches us that directly affects temperature.)"

 

One of the theories of the mechanism by which sunspot activity affects global temperature is by the indirect route of ..

 

High sunspot activity means high solar magnetic activity

This affects the magnetic field around Earth (not a theory - it has been measured)

This diverts cosmic rays away from Earth (also confirmed by direct measurement)

This reduces ions that act as nucleation points for water vapour

This reduces cloud cover

This reduces Earth's albedo

This causes warming

 

Some satellite studies have shown that cloud cover drops during periods of high sunspot activity, which fits this theory.

 

The point is that, if this theory is correct, then the effect of high sunspot activity is not dependent on direct energy transfer - sun to Earth. Of course, it is only a theory, and there are other theories also.

 

And these would be indirect effects.

 

However, it's hard to keep all this clear when you use the terms interchangeably. This has come up before - do you mean sunspot number, or something else?

 

 

"this requires a quantitative analysis which you haven't provided or cited."

 

It would be nice to do so. However, as I pointed out, if we don't understand the mechanism, how can we calculate the forcing? The closest we can get to is a description of the correlation between sunspot activity and temperature change. This has been described many times.

 

Correlation tells you nothing when the correlation isn't always present.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Temp-sunspot-co2.svg

 

Sunspot number drops dramatically near 1880 while temperature is rising. Sunspot number peaks in 1960, but cooling begins in 1940.

 

If we go back further, there are huge spans where sunspot number and temperature anti-correlate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sunspot-temperature-10000yr.svg

 

What this indicates to me is that the correlations you see are coincidental and not causal.

 

"Let's take the temperature increase from ~1910-1940 at 0.4 ºC as correct. Now, the CO2 increase then was "trivial" but how much is that? "

 

Actually, about 10% of recent increases. 1870 to 1940 saw an increase in CO2 of approx 290 ppm to 303. Less than 0.2 ppm per year. The last 30 years, it has been a bit under 2 ppm per year.

 

1880 to 1910 was cooling. That may have been influenced by vulcanism, but also included a drop in sunspot activity. 1910 to 1940 was a period of trivial greenhouse gas increase, but substantial warming - almost as much as recent warming, and 'coincided' with the largest increase in sunspot activity for a thousand years.

 

But as you have previously noted, the response to temperature is not linear — it's logarithmic.

 

If you assess the recent temperaure increase as being due to CO2 (380 ppm vs 335 ppm (taken from http://www.omgfilms.com/spark1/images/stories/fruit/mauna_loa_carbon_dioxide.png ) corresponding to a temperature increase of 0.5 ºC, then a rise from 290 to 303 ppm (you didn't say where you got the numbers) corresponds to a 0.175 ºC increase in temperature.

 

And 1880-1910 saw ~flat average sunspot number. You'll have to show what graphs you are using.

 

Similarly the Mann study.. which McIntyre citiqued, and the critique was published in a peer review journal. Am I supposed to assume that a non-peer reviewed rebuttal is sufficient from a site for which Mann is a primary contributor?

 

I pointed out three critiques (which I found after a very quick search), two in GPL and one elsewhere, and got links for two of them.

 

This is in line with my previous claims as to the questionable methods of debate used at Realclimate.org.

 

The debating methods used elsewhere aren't pertinent to this discussion. If you have a problem with the way they discuss things, take it up with them.

 

I'm not going to address the rest — I've already noted that it's off topic. How you want to interpret realclimate's use of "stupid" ISN"T RELEVANT.

[jryan]

No..

 

Thank you for the response. In that case I have still not found a peer reviewed response to the McIntyre peer reviewed critique of Mann's 1998 study. THe only rebuttals I find are from Mann in the "letters to Nature" section.

[SkepticLance]

Swansont asked

 

"- do you mean sunspot number, or something else?"

 

My main reference on the relationship between sunspot activity and temperature is the Max Plank Institute who published their data from 1860 to 2000. Their data shows a really nic correlation from 1860 to about 1970. After that, it all falls apart.

 

They used a term 'reconstructed irradiance' which is a blend of sunspot number, sunspot area, and the intensity of sunspot action. This shows a clear correlation with temperature change.

 

One of their papers is at :

 

http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2004/pressRelease20040802/

 

I quote :

 

"As the scientists have reported in the renowned scientific journal, Physical Review Letters, since 1940 the mean sunspot number is higher than it has ever been in the last thousand years and two and a half times higher than the long term average."

 

Swansont said

 

"Correlation tells you nothing when the correlation isn't always present.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Temp-sunspot-co2.svg"

 

This reference talks about sunspot number. The Max Planck Institute with their 'reconstructed radiance' have a much better correlation. Incidentally, I hate the term they use, since the effect may actually not have anything to do with irradiance. I would prefer they called it 'reconstructed impact' or somthing like that.

 

Swansont said :

 

"Sunspot number drops dramatically near 1880 while temperature is rising. Sunspot number peaks in 1960, but cooling begins in 1940."

 

Again, not shown by the Max Planck Institute method.

 

"there are huge spans where sunspot number and temperature anti-correlate"

 

There are more spans on your posted graph where they do. Obviously climate is complex and there are many factors. I could well imagine situations in the past where sunspot activity might be driving a warming, and vulcanism driving a cooling. Maybe vulcanism would win?

 

The occasional situation where a factor other than sunspot activity is dominant does not mean sunspots are unimportant.

 

 

"the response to temperature is not linear — it's logarithmic."

 

Agreed. And this will increase the greenhouse gas impact in 1910 to 1940. However, it still leaves sunspot activity as the stronger driver. Also note : the logarithmic argument is even stronger for the 30 year period of 1880 to 1910, which was a period of cooling.

 

"(you didn't say where you got the numbers)"

 

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/07.htm