Primary & Caucus Predictions and Results

[ecoli]

The Iowa caucus is today, and the primary 'season' has officially begun.

 

Use this thread to make predictions and final results, as well as any relevant discussion.

 

My prediction for the Republican caucus in Iowa:

Huckabee

Romney

McCain

Paul

Thompson

Guiliani

Hunter

 

That's the most likely scenario, though I'd like to see Paul and McCain switch places. Anyone else?

[iNow]

I'm pretty sure Huckabee won't come out on top in Iowa, but we'll see.

[ecoli]

I'm pretty sure Huckabee won't come out on top in Iowa, but we'll see.

 

I'm pretty sure Huckabee and Romney will come in either 1st or 2nd. The polls indicate it, as does my gut.

[DrDNA]

What a mess.

My man Ron Paul is definitely not going to win Iowa nor the Republican ticket.

As for the rest of 'em; I would probably prefer to have my fate decided by a game of Russian roulette using 5 bullets.

There really might be a strong case here for "none of the above" on the ballot this year.

[ecoli]

What a mess.

My man Ron Paul is definitely not going to win Iowa nor the Republican ticket.

As for the rest of 'em; I would probably prefer to have my fate decided by a game of Russian roulette using 5 bullets.

There really might be a strong case here for "none of the above" on the ballot this year.

 

A top three finish for Paul (which I believe will be hard, but not impossible) will be really great for Paul. He doesn't need to come in first in Iowa to make an impact on the rest of the election. A top three in Iowa will get him plenty of media and will propel him in New Hampshire. And, even if he doesn't win the nomination, the national recognition he's gained from this election could go along way, both in the general election and beyond.

 

I could also live a McCain nomination for the Republican nomination. I think, if republican's are smart, they'll nominate McCain as the man most likely to beat a democrat, perhaps besides for Paul.

[DrDNA]

A top three finish for Paul (which I believe will be hard, but not impossible) will be really great for Paul. He doesn't need to come in first in Iowa to make an impact on the rest of the election. A top three in Iowa will get him plenty of media and will propel him in New Hampshire. And, even if he doesn't win the nomination, the national recognition he's gained from this election could go along way, both in the general election and beyond.

 

I could also live a McCain nomination for the Republican nomination. I think, if republican's are smart, they'll nominate McCain as the man most likely to beat a democrat, perhaps besides for Paul.

 

Unfortunately, only a win is gonna count in these races. And the mainstream has already done a good job of squelching Paul so far, so you won't hear much from him after this I'm afraid. They have had plenty of chances so far and look what they have done with it..... He is, after all, considered just another crazy aunt in the attic.............

 

Re McCain: Maverick is my Senator and I have yet to cast a vote for him in his current capacity, so I would be hard pressed to vote for him to sleep in the big house. But, given a choice of the least of two (or 3) evils, I might.........

But, I doubt that dog is gonna hunt either...........

[ecoli]

DNA, the main stream doesn't even think Paul will get in 4th... so, a third place finish would do him well. Certainly it can't hurt.

 

Think about it... the supposed front runner is basically running in last in Iowa, but it probably won't knock him out of the running.

 

Maybe the media won't make a big deal out of it, but people know about Paul in New Hampshire, and if he does well in Iowa, fence sitters and independents will probably be pushed over. If Paul does well in New Hampshire too, then he still has a fighting chance for the nomination. A lot depends on today.

 

with 65% of the precincts in for Republicans and 85% for the dems, this is what the election results look like so far:

 

Joe Biden 1%

Hillary Clinton 30%

Chris Dodd 0%

John Edwards 30%

Mike Gravel 0%

Dennis Kucinich 0%

Barack Obama 37%

Bill Richardson 2%

 

Rudy Giuliani 4%

Mike Huckabee 34%

Duncan Hunter 0%

John McCain 13%

Ron Paul 10%

Mitt Romney 25%

Fred Thompson 14%

Tom Tancredo 0%

 

Plenty of districts left, though.

[iNow]

what's it look like now that it's later?

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses/index.html

[ecoli]

Dems - 100% of precincts

Obama 38%

Edwards 30%

Clinton 29%

Richardson 2%

Biden 1%

 

Repubs 93% of precincts

Huckabee 34%

Romney 25%

Thompson 13%

McCain 13%

Paul 10%

Giuliani 4%

 

Edwards suprized me a bit, and Thompson definitely did, I expected him to get 6-9%

[iNow]

Wow... Thompson tied McCain. Wtf?

 

 

Thanks both.

 

 

Obama and Huckabee. I guess I was off on the Republican side.

[bascule]

All I have to say is:

 

GOBAMA!

 

and

 

F*CKABEES!

 

(if you don't catch the reference to the latter you have missed one of the best movies in recent history)

[iNow]

Democratic turnout more than doubled Republican turnout. 239,000 people showed up to vote Democrat, but only 115,000 people showed up to vote Republican.

[ecoli]

Democratic turnout more than doubled Republican turnout. 239,000 people showed up to vote Democrat, but only 115,000 people showed up to vote Republican.

 

And I think about 40% of the republicans were evangelical voters.

 

I know Paul supporters were upset that they didn't get more independents that went over to vote for Obama... but it's their own fault.

 

Both Dodd and Biden dropped out of the democratic race after the Iowa caucus.

 

Now, were looking forward to New Hampshire.

 

Current NH Polls:

Dems

Clinton - 34%

Obama - 30%

Edwards - 17%

 

Republicans

Romney/McCain - 29%

Guiliani - 12%

Huckabee - 10%

Paul - 7%

 

My Predictions:

Dem - Obama, Clinton, Edwards

Repub - McCain, Romney, Paul, Guiliani, Huckabee

[DrDNA]

My Predictions:

Dem - Obama, Clinton, Edwards

Repub - McCain, Romney, Paul, Guiliani, Huckabee

 

Interesting and I respect your prediction, but where is all of this support for Maverick and Dr Paul going to come from.................

[ecoli]

Interesting and I respect your prediction, but where is all of this support for Maverick and Dr Paul going to come from.................

 

Well, McCain is already polling first or second. However, both him and Dr. Paul will get the independent vote. Which Paul won in Iowa, with 29% (I believe that's the right number).

[DrDNA]

Well, McCain is already polling first or second. However, both him and Dr. Paul will get the independent vote. Which Paul won in Iowa, with 29% (I believe that's the right number).

 

Hmmmm....I did hear last night that about 40% of the NHerites are independant. This might be interesting.

[john5746]

Now, were looking forward to New Hampshire.

 

Current NH Polls:

Dems

Clinton - 34%

Obama - 30%

Edwards - 17%

 

Republicans

Romney/McCain - 29%

Guiliani - 12%

Huckabee - 10%

Paul - 7%

 

My Predictions:

Dem - Obama, Clinton, Edwards

Repub - McCain, Romney, Paul, Guiliani, Huckabee

 

My Predictions:

Dem - Clinton, Obama, Edwards

Repub - Romney, McCain, Huckabee, RuPaul, Guiliani

[ecoli]

Is calling him RuPaul supposed to be an insult or something? Isn't RuPaul a transvestite singer or something?

[Realitycheck]

I wonder what the demographics of the vote are. Are blacks turning out in record numbers to ram this through?

[iNow]

I wonder what the demographics of the vote are. Are blacks turning out in record numbers to ram this through?

 

 

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hRjXALuBdL_Il8l1QOD3LnKezyTwD8TUO8N04

DEMOGRAPHICS

 

_ As in past Iowa caucuses and other presidential nomination contests, the early Democratic turnout was predominantly female, while a majority of Republican early arrivers were male.

 

_ Early Democratic caucus-goers were a little younger on average than their Republican counterparts.

 

 

No mention of race... although, Iowa is pretty easily considered a predominently "white" state.

[DrDNA]

According to the Detroit Free Press, Iowa is 95% "White", so by most or perhaps even all measures, Obama has successfully jumped way over what was percieved to be a big barrier in his path.

Quite impressive I think.

Also, by most accounts that I have read or heard, African Americans (including my wife!) are still mostly behind Hillary out of loyalty to Bill.

 

People keep telling me that the country is still too racist for him to stand a chance....but voila.

He got HUGE support from the under 30 crowd, while the older caucus goers leaned strongly towards Hillary.

 

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the country handles the percieved "color" barrier. But it's pretty exciting to see that, well, at least Iowa has apparently grwon up and moved passed it.

[ecoli]

I wonder what the demographics of the vote are. Are blacks turning out in record numbers to ram this through?

 

 

Iowa population is only 2.4% black, so we can't tell yet.

 

I'm also interested in seeing how the hispanic community will vote.

[ParanoiA]

I'm disappointed in the results. I was hoping Paul would do better. I'm no good at political predictions and the whole "game" but it seems to me if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire then he just isn't going to do well at all.

 

I never really thought he had a chance, but I sure was getting excited when he raised so much money and started putting together commercials. I know it's not over, but I have a feeling I'm going to be writing in my vote in november.

 

By the way, does the party have to go with the candidate who wins the primary? Or, can they actually ignore the vote?

[ecoli]

If it gets close or there's a tie, then yes. The party can debate the nomination at the convention. I don't know if there is a precedent for ignoring the vote altogether, however.

 

I agree though, a lot is riding on New Hampshire. Nevada is another place Paul may be able to pick up some delegates. But, if he doesn't kick major ass before super tuesday, I won't be very hopeful.

 

edit: This may be a reason why Paul didn't get more votes in Iowa: http://rkurtz57.newsvine.com/_news/2008/01/04/1204118-an-email-from-an-atlanta-rp-meetup-member-in-iowa?last=1199491229&threadId=197943&cmt=1329935#c1329935