Primary & Caucus Predictions and Results

[CDarwin]

Both Dodd and Biden dropped out of the democratic race after the Iowa caucus.

 

*Whimper, whimper* My Biden... He had the Mo Joe...

 

I seriously did expect him to do better than that. Its just the dangblasted media. Hillary and Obama have so monopolized the press that Biden, who was a legitimately strong candidate, got shut out. If this had been a typical election cycle he would have been a front runner from the beginning. But alas...

 

People keep telling me that the country is still too racist for him to stand a chance....but voila.

He got HUGE support from the under 30 crowd, while the older caucus goers leaned strongly towards Hillary.

 

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the country handles the percieved "color" barrier. But it's pretty exciting to see that, well, at least Iowa has apparently grwon up and moved passed it.

 

I have to point to the experience in Tennessee in 2004 again. We came this close to electing a black Democrat to a US Senate seat (now Ford is teaching at Vanderbilt). I'd say this country is a lot more ready for a black man than a white woman. You also have to consider that A) Hardcore racists don't vote Democrat in the first place, and B) Some of the most "racist" states (Southern states) also have some of the largest African American populations. No, Obama probably won't win Idaho. But neither would any Democrat.

 

But anyway, my for-what-its-worth prediction for New Hampshire: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson; McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Guilliani. I'm most equivocal on Clinton/Edwards and Huckabee/Paul. I think Paul might really surprise us with a third place finish. That's a pretty libertarian state. I also put Huckabee up higher than the polls show him because he's both got momentum and has some libertarian credentials that might serve him.

 

If I'm right I'll eat... well I don't have a hat. I'll eat a glove or something.

[ecoli]

Huckabee is no social libertarian, which I think is even more important to libertarians than the economic stuff.

[CDarwin]

Huckabee is no social libertarian, which I think is even more important to libertarians than the economic stuff.

 

Maybe not New Hampshire libertarians. It's a conservative-leaning state, especially for New England.

[ecoli]

Today is the Wyoming primary. They're sending 12 delegates to the RNC.

[DrDNA]

Huckabee is no social libertarian, which I think is even more important to libertarians than the economic stuff.

 

Personally, I think that libertarian ideals are GREAT (as did the founding fathers apparently).

But unfortunately, they seem to lack the mass appeal that is necessary to win most primaries or general elections in this day and age.

[ecoli]

Latest New Hampshire Poll:

 

What a difference a caucus makes.

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 10 points. McCain is leading the Republican pack, with Romney trailing by 5 points. Ron Paul jumped 7 points and is in third.

 

Democrats

Obama 37 (+9 vs. 12/18 poll)

Clinton 27 (-4)

Edwards 19 (+1)

Richardson 8 (nc)

 

Republicans

McCain 31 (+4 vs. 12/18)

Romney 26 (-5)

Paul 14 (+7)

Huckabee 11 (nc)

Giuliani 8 (-5)

Thompson 5 (+2)

 

My predictions pretty much match this poll, except Huckabee and Guiliani were switched.

[ParanoiA]

Ecoli, you definitely have a feel for this stuff. Paul in 3rd...wow (I know it's just a poll, but hey)

 

I'm like a little kid. I get my hopes up easily, and they get squashed easily, then back up again...

[ecoli]

Ecoli, you definitely have a feel for this stuff. Paul in 3rd...wow (I know it's just a poll, but hey)

Thanks... I must admit, that I've been following this election very closely for the last month or so. So, I do have a feel for what the election climate is currently like.

I was off on Iowa... I didn't expect Thompson to do so well, and there was some problems with the Paul campaign that day, which maybe prevented Paul supporters from getting to the caucus.

 

But anyway, the media generally tends to underestimate Paul and his support. So, if he's getting third in the poll (which doesn't poll independent voters, a group that Paul claimed for the republicans in Iowa) then, maybe he'll do even better than third in New Hampshire... but I think that may more wishful thinking than smart thinking at this point.

 

I'm like a little kid. I get my hopes up easily, and they get squashed easily, then back up again...

yeah, I know what you mean.

 

I'm convincing myself to be realistic about this election... the chances that Paul will get the nomination aren't very high still, but there is still a chance that his 'revolution' will change some of the politics in Washington. As Paul has said, money talks, and already he's getting more attention from his fellow congressmen.

 

Howard Dean may have lost his chances at the nomination in 2004, but it propelled him into the position of chairman for the democratic party. Paul's positions may not qualify him for a similar post in the republican party, but he's almost guaranteed more attention now. Hopefully, he'll win his congressional seat back if he doesn't run as an independent.

[CDarwin]

I'm convincing myself to be realistic about this election... the chances that Paul will get the nomination aren't very high still, but there is still a chance that his 'revolution' will change some of the politics in Washington. As Paul has said, money talks, and already he's getting more attention from his fellow congressmen.

 

Howard Dean may have lost his chances at the nomination in 2004, but it propelled him into the position of chairman for the democratic party. Paul's positions may not qualify him for a similar post in the republican party, but he's almost guaranteed more attention now. Hopefully, he'll win his congressional seat back if he doesn't run as an independent.

This article in the Newsweek addresses what Ron Paul might be a harbinger of. I just read that today and found it quite interesting. You can see some real parallels between Ron Paul and Ralph Nader. If Nader had of run the first time in the blog age, his fate might have been quite different.

[DrDNA]

You know, this is the first presidential primary season in a long time that I can honestly say that I don't like ANY of these guys or the gal in the primaries, it usually has to get down to the final 2 (or 3 in rare cases) when I can state that......except Paul, but I admit that he stands a snowball's chance in hell.

But, as long as Hillary and Rudy (my 2 least favorite) are sucking mud, I'm pretty happy at this point.

Man, I can't believe Maverick is doing so well in NH. I'm speechless.

[ecoli]

Thread split: http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?t=30569

[Realitycheck]

OMG, I can't believe Huckabee got where he did in Iowa with this Fair Tax crap. It's now open season on Fair Tax. It seems that every argument I hear in favor of Fair Tax leads me to another reason why it isn't good.

 

"To truly equal today's federal revenue take, to be revenue neutral, the flat tax has to be quite high -- usually higher than is advertised up front," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp in Cleveland.

 

"And the complication that comes with that is it encourages underground economic activity. People will increasingly try to circumvent the tax system by doing transactions under the table," he said.

 

Analysts also see it as regressive -- as it is the same rate across the board regardless of income -- even if Huckabee's plan does make provisions to exempt the poor.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080106/pl_nm/usa_politics_huckabee_taxes_dc

 

And don't forget about how recessions will call for emergency sessions of Congress to redesign the whole Federal revenue stream in order to pay anybody and everybody. Oh, wait a minute, I forgot. We can just print more money.

[DrDNA]

Currently,

OBAMA 36; CLINTON 37; EDWARDS 17; RICHARDSON 4; KUCINICH 2...

MCCAIN 38; ROMNEY 29; HUCKABEE 11; PAUL 8; GIULIANI 9; THOMPSON 1...

[iNow]

According to what/who?

[DrDNA]

Sorry. Just pasted that from Drudge....no further details were given.

10.96% IN: OBAMA 36; CLINTON 38; EDWARDS 17; RICHARDSON 4; KUCINICH 2...

10.29% IN: MCCAIN 37; ROMNEY 28; HUCKABEE 12; GIULIANI 9; PAUL 8; THOMPSON 1...

 

 

This just in....Hillary has her cake and eats it too.....

“I’m running for president because I believe that there is not a contradiction between experience and change.”

Hillary in DOVER, N.H.

[ecoli]

Results from New Hampshire are currently rolling in... No need to look at polls anymore.

 

at 11% of precincts reporting (too early to signify final results)

 

Dems:

Clinton - 38%

Obama - 36%

Edwards - 17%

Richardson - 5%

Kucinich - 2%

 

Republicans

McCain - 37%

Romney - 28%

Huckabee - 12%

Giuliani - 9%

Paul - 9%

Thompson - 1%

Hunter - 1%

[DrDNA]

This just in......Hillary says she has a penis and a vagina!

[ecoli]

This just in......Hillary says she has a penis and a vagina!

 

Yeah, she just released that report to counter Obama being both black and white.

[DrDNA]

Man, I hope Hillary doesn't take NH. What a way to ruin my week.

 

 

 

But F= ma is currently Obama's friend regardless of the outcome tonight.

"Obama and Clinton are now tied with 33 percent of the vote each nationally, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. The finding is a stunning change from mid-December, when Clinton held an 18-point advantage over Obama." http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/08/558314.aspx

 

And on the other side. 37%. Look at Maverick go! Wow!

[iNow]

CNN -

 

DEMS: 29% reporting:

 

Clinton: 40%

Obama: 36%

Edwards: 17%

 

 

REPUBS: 28% reporting

 

McCain: 38%

Romney: 28%

Huckabee: 12%

Paul and Guliani tied with 9%

[DrDNA]

Drudge

40.86% IN: CLINTON 39; OBAMA 36; EDWARDS 17; RICHARDSON 5; KUCINICH 2...

38.20% IN: *MCCAIN 37; ROMNEY 30; HUCKABEE 12; GIULIANI 9; PAUL 8; THOMPSON 1...

 

I just read this and it disgusts me.....makes me like the Clintons even less (if that's even possible).

Quote:

"On CNN today, Donna Brazile lit into Bill Clinton with a vehemence that raised eyebrows in both of their circles:

 

Brazile: I could understand his frustration at this moment. But, look, he shouldn't take out all his pain on Barack Obama. It's time that they regroup. Figure out what Hillary needs to do to get her campaign back on track. It sounds like sour grapes coming from the former commander in chief. Someone that many Democrats hold in high esteem. For him to go after Obama, using a fairy tale, calling him as he did last week. It's an insult. And I will tell you, as an African-American, I find his tone and his words to be very depressing.

 

[snip]

 

Blitzer: But tell me why, as an African-American, Donna, you feel that the president's comments weren't appropriate.

 

Brazile: First of all, if Bill Bennett [also on the show] had said some of the things that Bill Clinton is saying about Barack Obama, I would have called Bill Bennett out of his name and said that Bill Bennett should shut his mouth because he is not speaking in the right tone. I think his tone, I think calling Barack Obama a kid, he is a United States senator. He's experienced. The people of Illinois elected him, and regardless of what kind of items are on his résumé, this is a man who has worked all his life. He's proven; he's been a college professor. I don't have to give Barack Obama a résumé. I'm not for anyone at this point. But I think for Bill Clinton to go out of his way to become a distraction to Hillary Clinton and to launch the kind of attack on Obama is just out of character for Bill Clinton. I think it's time he helps Hillary talk about her message and not go down this road."

End Quote.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Brazile_on_Bill_Depressing.html

 

 

Comments?

[iNow]

DrDNA - I sure wish you'd start speaking to the merits and qualities of the candidate you support instead of wasting so much time with your hard on for Hilllary. So many of us here have been discussing that issue of attack, and how it's hurting our society, so please see my comments to you as a friendly nudge. Cheers dude.

 

 

 

 

 

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

81% reporting... and I don't think Obama can catch up 6,000 votes with only 19% to go...

 

 

Clinton and McCain.

Respectively, second place goes to:

Obama and Romney.

[Pangloss]

I guess those Obama/Clinton polls were just a wee bit off. Quite the surprise there.

[ecoli]

My predictions were off

[john5746]

Comments?

 

I find Brazile's remarks " as an African American" to be racist. She is the only person to bring up race at all. I think Obama is still probably going to win because the media just piles on Clinton. Even in victory, they look shell shocked, trying to figure out what "went wrong". They try to say it is women or sympathy - imagine them doing that with Obama!! I hope this polling crap gets turned on its head more and more. It will be good if Obama has to fight something, because the media and other candidates sure are not going to do it. Edwards is trying to be his VP already.