Predictions

[SkepticLance]

Here in NZ, at the beginning of the year, we have a bunch of so-called psychics jumping out of the woodwork making assorted predictions for the year to come, and having those published in newspapers etc.

 

The NZ Skeptics decided to act on this, and talked with the newspapers and other media, and came up with their own set of predictions. The skeptics then recorded all the predictions and re-checked at the end of the year, and rated each set for accuracy, compared to their own. That started some years ago, and (I think) the skeptics have always been on top.

 

The reason for the success is that the skeptics predictions were based on good scientific sense and on rating probable events, compared to the nonsensicle erratic predictions of so-called psychics. It is easy to make predictions with a good likelihood of success, if you are a wee bit ambiguous, and only note events that have happened before with reasonable frequency.

 

Since it is still not far from the beginning of 2008, here are some of my predictions for the year to come.

 

There will be a substantial volcanic eruption in middle or South America.

 

There will be a substantial earthquake in south east Asia.

 

There will be a scandal affecting some member of the British royal family.

 

There will be allegations of sexual misconduct against a US Senator.

 

Perhaps some other people might like to make their own predictions. Remember to make it a bit ambiguous, and reflect a frequent event, so that it is likely to happen. But not too likely, since you don't want to be totally obvious. We can see what came true at the end of the year.

[Reaper]

I predict that we will have bills to pay sometime in the future.