Biofuels...

[TimbaLanD]

What is your opinion on Biofuels? Do you think it will take off? Has anyone heard of 2nd generation biofuels? I do not think it is sustainable!

[ecoli]

What's your opinion?

[TimbaLanD]

Personally I don’t think it’s sustainable! I think the third world will starve and the food prices will rocket!! Not a good move… That is what I think!

[Glider]

According to the BBC news 2 days ago, this is already happening. A move by farmers towards biofuel grain production (to collect the grants offered) has pushed up grain prices globally. This, combined with recent poor harvests mean that people in poorer countries are already beginning to suffer.

 

"Record prices

 

The commodity that has been generating a lot of interest lately is wheat. Falling supply coincides with a rise in demand. The price of this food staple, which is used in bread and animal feed, has been soaring.

 

Driving it up is reduced supply, with drought affecting crops in Australia.

 

However supply is not the only factor. The world population has grown and so has demand from the Far East. Another reason prices are going up is that wheat is being used for biofuels.

 

The combination of these factors has resulted in the price of wheat more than doubling over the last year." (From the BBC website).

[TimbaLanD]

I am sure I read in the papers that the UK government wants all the major companies to have 12% biofuel in their supplies! This is going to further increase food prices. I wanted to know what people of this science community felt about biofules and its production. Has anyone here been directly affected or involved with biofuels?

[ParanoiA]

Well, wait a minute though. "Biofuels" is a broad category that does NOT require food items to be fuel. So, I would consider that refinement before you trash Biofuels in general.

[Realitycheck]

And as PeakOilMan pointed out, it takes 10 times the amount of energy to produce 1 part of energy in biofuels. Just pumping it out of the ground is a whole lot easier. Now you have to till the ground, plant seeds, irrigate it, spray pesticides on it, harvest it, run it through the mill, all before you even get to the distillation process.

 

I believe that rice is in high demand also, contributing to this shortage in food energy.

[bascule]

You could use algae:

 

http://solixbiofuels.com/

 

Or kudzu:

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/viewpoint/vp_strauss/20070904.html

[iNow]

What is the likelihood that the generation of biofuels leaves a bigger carbon footprint than our existing use of fossil fuels?

[Realitycheck]

Mathematically, rising fossil fuel prices will probably make traditional biofuels unfeasible eventually.

[SH3RL0CK]

I am not at all convinced that biofuels must consume more energy than they generate. It is my belief that this is misinformation from the oil companies and that every environmentalist who agrees with this information are deceived and/or tools for the oil corporations.

 

See for example:

 

http://www.ethanol.org/index.php?id=81&parentid=25#MISCONCEPTIONS

http://www.ethanol.org/pdf/contentmgmt/Issue_Brief_Ethanols_Energy_Balance.pdf

from the article:

 

Is it true that ethanol is driving up prices at the grocery store?

 

No - the role of corn and ethanol in grocery prices has been grossly exaggerated by critics who have much to gain in keeping ethanol's potential limited. Corn prices, made higher lately in part due to ethanol demand, do have some impact on foods in which corn is an ingredient - namely meat, dairy, and poultry. Energy prices, spiking again now with oil reaching nearly $90 per barrel, have a much more dramatic impact on food prices because all foods are dependent upon this expensive energy for processing, packaging, and transportation. Research shows that energy prices have at least twice the impact as corn prices in the grocery aisle.

 

What does "net energy balance" mean? What is ethanol's energy balance?

Net energy balance is a term used to describe how much energy is needed to produce a product versus how much energy that product provides. Two professors that are long-time critics of ethanol claim that ethanol has a negative energy balance, but this is simply not true and has been debunked again and again by science. Scientific study after study has proven ethanol's energy balance to be positive. The latest USDA figures show that ethanol made from the drymill process provides at least 77% more energy as a fuel than the process it takes to make it. The bottom line is that it takes about 35,000 BTUs (British Thermal Units) of energy to create a gallon of ethanol, and that gallon of ethanol contains at least 77,000 BTUs of energy. The net energy balance of ethanol is simply a non-issue.

 

Additionally, the use of corn for ethanol feedstock is especially advantageous. After the ethanol is removed from the corn, the remainder contains as much food value as before the ethanol was removed. What could be better than two valuable products (food and fuel) for the price of one?

 

see:

 

http://www.ethanol.org/index.php?id=38&parentid=8#Distillers%20Grain

 

Distillers grain is an important co-product of drymill ethanol production. Drymill ethanol production process uses only the starch portion of the corn, which is about 70% of the kernel. All the remaining nutrients - protein, fat, minerals, and vitamins - are concentrated into distillers grain, a valuable feed for livestock. A bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds and will produce at least 2.8 gallons of ethanol and 17 pounds of distillers grain.

 

DDGS is a high quality feedstuff ration for dairy cattle, beef cattle, swine, poultry, and aquaculture. The feed is an economical partial replacement for corn, soybean meal, and dicalcium phosphate in livestock and poultry feeds. Historically, over 85% of DDGS has been fed to dairy and beef cattle, and DDGS continues to be an excellent, economical feed ingredient for use in ruminant diets.

[Rev Blair]

I'd say that most of the present food shortage is a function of too many people and too little arable land. Bio-fuels, in their present incarnation, will make that situation worse. That's especially true given the twisted way that subsidy regimes are applied, especially in the US and Europe.

[SH3RL0CK]

I'd say that most of the present food shortage is a function of too many people and too little arable land. Bio-fuels, in their present incarnation, will make that situation worse. That's especially true given the twisted way that subsidy regimes are applied, especially in the US and Europe.

 

I have always thought the problem was not in the food supply but rather the distribution of the food. Right now there is a surplus of food, globally, with the potential to grow even more (there is a significant amount of arableland in the USA and in other countries which lies fallow). In some locations, sadly, there are food shortages. Here, the price of food is too high for the people.

 

A great case example of this would be Korea. Prior to the end of WWII, the entire country was essentially in the same place. But today, N. Korea starves while S. Korea is rich. Why?

 

Nevertheless, as long as there are food surpluses, I don't see how biofuels are a bad thing. Though they might indeed make the situation worse by raising prices, the root cause is not, and would not be biofuels (until such time as there are actual food shortages).

[Pangloss]

I'd say that most of the present food shortage is a function of too many people and too little arable land. Bio-fuels, in their present incarnation, will make that situation worse. That's especially true given the twisted way that subsidy regimes are applied, especially in the US and Europe.

 

What food shortage? I've got five Publix supermarkets in excess of 30,000 square feet each within one mile of my house, all of them stocked to the absolute gills.

 

They may be charging two bucks for a gallon of milk instead of one buck, but they're hardly running out of supply.

[Realitycheck]

On Friday, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said biofuels "posed a real moral problem" and called for a moratorium on using food crops to power cars, trucks and buses.

 

"Producing biofuels is a crime against humanity," the UN's special rapporteur for the right to food, Jean Ziegler of Switzerland, said earlier.

 

These people obviously have no idea what they are talking about.

 

This is highly exaggerated," Sergio Serra, Brazil's ambassador for climate change, told AFP.

 

"There is no real relation of cause and effect between the expansion of the production of biofuels and the raising of food prices. At least it is not happening in Brazil."

 

This guy has obviously been doing his homework. I mean, c'mon, he's a climate change guy.

 

However, it does make sense. Diverting grains to biofuels does increase demand, raising prices for 3rd world countries who are accustomed to getting these grains for incredibly low prices. Farmers who grow other crops might be more inclined to grow grains for biofuels now, since they are now in more demand, decreasing supply for these other crops..

 

In a speech on Wednesday that set down a target for reducing US carbon emissions, George W. Bush pointed to legislation requiring US producers to supply at least 36 billion gallons (136 billion litres) of renewable fuel by 2020.

 

In 2007, 20 percent of grain -- 81 million tonnes -- produced in the United States was used to make ethanol, according to US think tank the Earth Policy Institute, which predicts that the percentage will jump to nearly a quarter this year.

 

"We are looking at a five-fold increase in renewable fuel," Bush's top climate change advisor, Jim Connaughton, said in Paris on Thursday at a meeting of the world's major greenhouse-gas polluters.

 

But more than half of that legislatively-mandated production would come from "second-generation" biofuels made from non-food sources such as switchgrass and wood byproducts, he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080420/ts_afp/foodbiofuelsclimatewarming

 

81 million tons is a lot grain, feeds a lot of poor people. I wonder how the prices compare.

 

 

 

A University of Illinois economics team calculates that with oil at $50 a barrel, it is profitable—with the ethanol subsidy of 51¢ a gallon (equal to $1.43 per bushel of corn)—to convert corn into ethanol as long as the price is below $4 a bushel. But with oil at $100 a barrel, distillers can pay more than $7 a bushel for corn and still break even. If oil climbs to $140, distillers can pay $10 a bushel for corn—double the early 2008 price of $5 per bushel.

 

So if corn prices just keep going up, then it might make it unfavorable to grow corn for ethanol, as long as oil prices stay the same, which is unlikely. However,

 

The World Bank reports that for each 1 percent rise in food prices, caloric intake among the poor drops 0.5 percent. Millions of those living on the lower rungs of the global economic ladder, people who are barely hanging on, will lose their grip and begin to fall off.

 

Projections by Professors C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer of the University of Minnesota four years ago showed the number of hungry and malnourished people decreasing from over 800 million to 625 million by 2025. But in early 2007 their update of these projections, taking into account the biofuel effect on world food prices, showed the number of hungry people climbing to 1.2 billion by 2025. That climb is already under way.

 

Since the budgets of international food aid agencies are set well in advance, a rise in food prices shrinks food assistance. The U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), which is now supplying emergency food aid to 37 countries, is cutting shipments as prices soar. The WFP reports that 18,000 children are dying each day from hunger and related illnesses.

 

http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2008/Update69.htm

[pioneer]

Maybe we need to think of ways to make oil into food. The caloric value of a gallon of gasoline is about 31,000 Kcal. For about $3.50, that would last for two weeks at 2000 kcal per day or about 22 cents per day. Because we won't be as dependant on corn, wheat, sugar cane for our calories, it makes more of these food resources available to perfect the synfuel industry. It will also make the carbon footprint of fossil fuel more natural, by us breathing it out. I am just kidding.

[Rev Blair]

I have always thought the problem was not in the food supply but rather the distribution of the food. Right now there is a surplus of food, globally, with the potential to grow even more (there is a significant amount of arableland in the USA and in other countries which lies fallow). In some locations, sadly, there are food shortages. Here, the price of food is too high for the people.

 

The surplus stores have been shrinking for the last several years and are now at their lowest levels since the Great Depression. That has pushed the price up.

 

There is also much less fallow land than at anytime in the past. Where leaving land fallow used to be a recommended part of crop rotation, modern farming practices call for low or zero tillage and constant cropping.

 

If food is too expensive for people to afford, then there is a shortage of food. We've only seen food riots in the developing world so far, although the Tortilla Riots in Mexico a little while were a little closer to home.

 

Look around your own city though, and you'll see that there are people who unable to afford food. There are people with full time jobs that use food banks. We aren't seeing rioting in the streets yet, but that is an indication of a shortage.

[Realitycheck]

I'd say that most of the present food shortage is a function of too many people and too little arable land. Bio-fuels, in their present incarnation, will make that situation worse. That's especially true given the twisted way that subsidy regimes are applied, especially in the US and Europe.

 

I found myself corrected on this issue. Worldwide, arable land equals .27 hectares per capita, while the U.S. number is .7 hectares per capita. It is estimated that, in order to consume a balanced diet, you need about .50 hectares per capita used on agriculture. Taking this into account, it is definitely time to institute a one child rule like China, or something similar. Most biofuels will definitely cut into this land. I like hydrogen and other options better.

 

http://dieoff.org/page55.htm

[Rev Blair]

I think the best solution to a lot of that is to practice urban agriculture, agentchange. All that grass we mow every weekend could be growing food for us instead. If you look at the Cuban model, it becomes apparent that we actually have a lot more land accessible than we use.

 

You have to wonder why we have people going hungry, yet we pay somebody 18 bucks an hour to drive around on a lawn tractor cutting grass. Couldn't we pay that guy 18 bucks an hour to grow food instead?

 

It seems like an obvious solution, at least to me, but it doesn't fit into our economic and political models at present. Try suggesting that we pay public employees to produce food for the disadvantaged, or to turn public greenspace over to community groups to produce their own food, and men in suits start calling you a commie pretty damned quick.

 

Okay, I hit the post button before I meant to.

 

I also see hydrogen as a better solution than bio-fuels, agentchange. Looking at the situation in my own province, we have huge hydroelectric resources. There is no reason why we can't use at least some of those resources to produce hydrogen.

 

I do see bio-fuels (produced from agricultural waste etc.) as a likely niche fuel for things like running small engines and powering equipment for some applications though.

 

I think part of the problem with bio-fuels, and hydrogen for that matter, is that we're looking for a magic bullet to replace fossil fuels. I don't think there is a single solution, but a lot of small solutions.

[Realitycheck]

A lawn is not enough to support yourself. A hectare is 100 meters X 100 meters. You have an apple tree, an orange tree, some grape vines, a bunch of different crops growing, a number of cows, pigs, and chickens growing, grains growing to feed these, etc. It adds up.

 

Unfortunately, it will most likely turn out to be survival of the richest, smartest, and best situated.

[Rev Blair]

No, a lawn isn't enough to support yourself. I didn't mean to imply that it was. It is part of a solution, though...one piece of the puzzle. I doubt there is any single solution and no partial solution is one-size fits all.

 

There are other forms of urban agriculture as well...growing food crops in common green spaces, and even raising livestock by allowing grazing in suitable areas. There are rooftop gardens.

 

There are different agricultural practices we can follow. There is land reclamation. Not one of them will solve the problem on its own though. There are no silver bullets.

[TimbaLanD]

According to what I have read on this thread, it seems like biofuels somehow have a direct link with food demand and shortage. This is true for first generation biofuel. I have however read on the paper about second generation biofuel which uses all the parts of the plant to produce biofuel. It seems the technology is not proven. Has anyone heard of this second generation biofuels?

[doG]

IMO the thirst for biofuels will divert much needed farmland to energy production. In America alone, the bread basket of the world, you could convert every square inch of farmland to corn crops for ethanol and it wouldn't supply a third of America's demand for energy while destroying a significant part of the planets arable land suitable for food production. Mankind is on a course for an epic trainwreck and the continued effort to produce new ethanol plants is simply stoking the boiler.

[Rev Blair]

I have however read on the paper about second generation biofuel which uses all the parts of the plant to produce biofuel. It seems the technology is not proven. Has anyone heard of this second generation biofuels?

 

I've heard of it and it works. There are a variety of processes that break down the cellulose to make it suitable for conversion into ethanol. Most are quite energy intensive in themselves, at least so far, but a couple technologies stand out.

 

The best is a bacteria (I think) that's been developed to break down cellulose rapidly. It requires very little energy and can process wood waste, straw, and cornstalks.

[TimbaLanD]

will it require a lot of feedstock? if so, food cost will rise!