Biofuels...

[Mr Skeptic]

will it require a lot of feedstock? if so, food cost will rise!

 

That's not necessarily true. If we use cellulose to make ethanol, we might have an excess of food due to growing grains for their stalks to turn into ethanol (of course, they could also use switchgrass, but then they loose out on selling the grain).

[SH3RL0CK]

A very big part of the increase of the cost of food at the grocery store is the fuel used to make and ship it...its much more significant than the price of the food itself. It would seem to me that the production of biofuels might possibly reduce the price of food by decreasing the cost of fuel.

 

I base this on the fact that ethanol costs about $1.80 per gallon to produce (without government subsidies I should add), and this could very well decrease due to economies of scale savings from increased production. So reducing the fuel costs from $3.60 to $1.80 reduces the price of the fuel (the major reason for food price increases) in half. A 50% reduction in fuel costs is, IMO, quite significant.

[Mr Skeptic]

A very big part of the increase of the cost of food at the grocery store is the fuel used to make and ship it...its much more significant than the price of the food itself. It would seem to me that the production of biofuels might possibly reduce the price of food by decreasing the cost of fuel.

 

Good point. That might be another reason why the price of food might decrease with biofuel production.

 

I base this on the fact that ethanol costs about $1.80 per gallon to produce (without government subsidies I should add), and this could very well decrease due to economies of scale savings from increased production. So reducing the fuel costs from $3.60 to $1.80 reduces the price of the fuel (the major reason for food price increases) in half. A 50% reduction in fuel costs is, IMO, quite significant.

 

Eh? If ethanol costs half as much as gasoline, than why is anyone still using gasoline? I'm suspicious of this. What are your sources?

[doG]

A very big part of the increase of the cost of food at the grocery store is the fuel used to make and ship it...

 

Isn't part of the availability of food at the grocery store having somewhere to grow it? If each acre of farmland becomes more valuable producing ethanol stocks then why would anyone use it to grow food on? If all of the land gets converted to grow ethanol stock on what land will farmers grow food on and what will be the price of that food regardless of transportation costs?

[Rev Blair]

Isn't part of the availability of food at the grocery store having somewhere to grow it? If each acre of farmland becomes more valuable producing ethanol stocks then why would anyone use it to grow food on? If all of the land gets converted to grow ethanol stock on what land will farmers grow food on and what will be the price of that food regardless of transportation costs?

 

It's a lot more complicated than that...I actually spent about three hours sitting in a bar with political/money guy today talking about this, and it was so involved that I didn't even get to take advantage of the fact that he was buying.

 

That is a big part of the problem though and the only way it can really be addressed is by government regulation, as near as I can tell.

 

The problem is this...cellulosic processes are great because they use agricultural waste (straw, corn stalks etc.). Both cellulosic crops and some bio-diesel crops are also great because they can be grown on marginal lands and the crops tend to sequester carbon rather efficiently (BTW, don't write off the pot people when they start talking about hemp...they have a point, although they tend to exaggerrate it).

 

Once you create the market for those crops though, you run into a whole other reality. Crops that grow well on marginal land will grow even better in good rich soil. If they are worth more per acre, farmers will grow them instead of food.

 

These crops tend to have relatively low input costs...you plant them once, and harvesting is basically like haying. They require very little fertilizer or insecticide. They are likely to draw subsidies as well, making them even cheaper to produce.

 

That leaves them being worth more per acre than most food crops. So the price of food will rise even more.

 

So who is going to tell the farmers that they can't plant these crops to get the best return on their investment? Not me...I've been called a commie enough for one lifetime.

[doG]

Once you create the market for those crops though, you run into a whole other reality. Crops that grow well on marginal land will grow even better in good rich soil. If they are worth more per acre, farmers will grow them instead of food.

 

These crops tend to have relatively low input costs...you plant them once, and harvesting is basically like haying. They require very little fertilizer or insecticide. They are likely to draw subsidies as well, making them even cheaper to produce.

 

That leaves them being worth more per acre than most food crops. So the price of food will rise even more.

 

It does seem that there will be a point where the price of food will rise high enough for it to compete as an increased cash crop for farmers, when it will cost as much to fill your stomach as it does your gas tank

 

It really baffles me sometimes how much an allegedly intelligent species like homo sapiens can somehow prove how totally stupid it can be.

[Rev Blair]

It does seem that there will be a point where the price of food will rise high enough for it to compete as an increased cash crop for farmers, when it will cost as much to fill your stomach as it does your gas tank

 

Not too far from where we were in the 19th century, when feeding a team of horses so they could work was often in competition with feeding your family.

 

It really baffles me sometimes how much an allegedly intelligent species like homo sapiens can somehow prove how totally stupid it can be.

 

One of my friends used to have a Chesapeake retriever that was pretty bright, considering the breed. If you put a bowl of food in front of the dog though, it would eat so fast and get so excited that it would actually snort food into its sinuses.

 

The human race reminds me a lot of that dog.