How far away are we?

[WinstonSmith]

My question is something that has been deeply important to me

most of my life. And thats how far are we from being able to regularly travel through space and colonize other planets. I too understand the importance

of our expansion into other star systems.

[ecoli]

quite far. We have no means of efficiently getting large numbers of people out into space, let alone the means to terraform or set up a colony on another planet.

 

However, with the way technology progresses, there's no way to estimate a time. Perhaps we'll hit some technological barrier, but perhaps our technology will accelerate in the near future.

 

I think it depends a lot on finding a new cheap energy source.

[antimatter]

Plus, we can't get to a very efficient speed at the moment...if you know what I mean.

[Donut.Hole]

quite far. We have no means of efficiently getting large numbers of people out into space, let alone the means to terraform or set up a colony on another planet.

 

However, with the way technology progresses, there's no way to estimate a time. Perhaps we'll hit some technological barrier, but perhaps our technology will accelerate in the near future.

 

I think it depends a lot on finding a new cheap energy source.

 

Nuclear power is relatively cheap compared to its output. Perhaps it could blast us out of this solar system?

 

But I can't imagine the parts for whole cities getting shipped out into space. And probably only the wealthier people could afford the passage. Maybe it'll be like immigration?

[Martin]

My question is something that has been deeply important to me

most of my life. And thats how far are we from being able to regularly travel through space and colonize other planets. I too understand the importance

of our expansion into other star systems.

 

Let's see if we agree on the importance of it, first. Because that affects the answer.

 

To me, the importance is that it can make earth life (including humans) have a greater collective life expectancy----with more room for evolution. It can give us and our culture a comparative immortality.

 

If we stay with this one planet eventually we and the rest of life will go downhill, various bad things can happen.

 

Extending life to other planets gives us better chances to survive and flourish.

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IF THAT IS THE GOAL. IF THAT IS ALL YOU ARE ASKING FOR, then it is not so hard to answer. We don't need to move large numbers of people to do that.

Almost all the work of starting life on other planets can be done by seeder robots.

 

You just have to be able to send a sophisticated robot with SEEDS, basically.

 

The robot can be sent to a watery earthlike planet and seed it with algae and change the atmosphere if necessary. And eventually seed it with other kinds of life.

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So if simply extending life (and eventually culture) to other planets, to give it more chances and room to evolve, is the goal, then the problem boils down to things like ROBOTICS, and issues of POLITICAL WILL----whether humans will consider it a worthy goal to extend life that way and be willing to PAY for it.

 

What would it be worth to you, or to a generation of earthdwellers, to have earth life planted on some planet 30 lightyears from here? Would you want to pay for the necessary robotics development and propulsion and seeding technology?

 

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My guess is that any other way to do it-----like building Noah Arks to carry lots of people somewhere------would cost enormously more than what I'm describing. And probably take longer too.

 

so anyway that's my take on it. Let us know what you have in mind, more exactly.

 

just for the sake of rough calculation, Winston, think of

ONE PERCENT OF THE SPEED OF LIGHT

 

so that it takes 3000 years to go 30 lightyears (there seem to be plenty of planets within that radius and more earthlike ones are being found as the instruments improve)

 

so the seeder robot needs to be built so that it has no trouble lasting for 3000 years and then starting up and doing its jobs.

 

the DNA sequences which it will use to reconstruct life also need to be stored in a durable medium so they do not degrade----there are a number of possibilities

 

cultural artifacts as well, to be used to regenerate civilization (the ability to compose music, dance the tango, etc)

 

it is all doable

technically not so far off, if the will should ever exist

 

the seeder would probably stay in orbit around the planet until green plants were established and the atmosphere somewhat more earthlike.

 

I don't know how long this would take. You can invent various scenarios with maybe a two-stage seeding

[SkepticLance]

There is a research team working on a space elevator. The goal is a 78,000 km long ribbon of material, probably based on carbon nanotubes, with enormous tensile strength, stretching from the surface to 78000 kms out, and held firm by centrifugal action.

 

Once achieved, a 'railway' up the ribbon is used to take people and goods into space. From 78,000 kms, these can be simply released and their momentum will shoot them off into space. The 'train' can be run on electrical energy, and the cost of transport will be minimal compared to today's costs.

 

The team made a claim to the effect that they could achieve this by 2018. I find myself doubting that. However, once achieved, whenever they manage it, the transport of large numbers of people and goods become practical. Once the first such elevator is in place, the construction of more becomes a hell of a lot easier!

 

My guess is that it will be underway in 50 years, but that is a guess.

[WinstonSmith]

Well I hope it happens in my lifetime.

What about the study of Ion energy.

Perhaps It would serve well for propulsion

[SkepticLance]

To Winston

 

When you talk of ion energy, I assume you mean the ion drive engine. This expels ions after acceleration in an elecromagnetic field, at very high velocities. It uses relatively little reaction mass. It cannot be used to leave a gravity well since the thrust is too small, but it makes a very good alternative for acceleration once clear of the gravity of a planet, or moon etc.