Who Could Be the First Woman US President?

[Pangloss]

If Hillary is now permanently out of the running due to her age (not at all certain, I readily admit, but a good possibiltiy), it might be interesting to speculate about what other women could possibly become the first female POTUS.

 

Here are some of the more prominent female figures in the Democratic Party along with their current ages:

 

Nancy Pelosi (68)

Barbara Boxer (67)

Dianne Feinstein (74)

Blanche Lincoln (Sen. from Arkansas) (47)

Claire McCaskill (Sen. from Missouri) (54)

 

Less well known:

Patty Murray (Sen. from Washington) (57)

Maria Cantwell (Sen. from Washington) (49)

Debbie Stabenow (Sen. from Michigan) (58)

Amy Klobuchar (Sen. from Minnesota) (48)

Mary Landrieu (Sen. from Louisiana) (52)

 

Analysis: It seems fairly clear that Feinstein, Pelosi and Boxer will not be running for president. Blanche Lincoln is thought to be on the short list for Obama VP, but if he picks a woman then Clinton seems more likely. She could run in 2012, though, especially with a little help from the White House. Similarly, McCaskill has received a lot of press due to her heavy committee activities, though she is still a freshman.

 

Mary Landrieu might be the most intriguing candidate. She made a name for herself following Katrina, has a lot of seniority, and has a strong track record with moderates (part of the Gang of 14, and a member of the centrist NDC). It would be interesting to see her run.

 

I don't know much about Patty Murray, Maria Cantwell or Debbie Stabenow. I've never even HEARD of Amy Klobuchar.

 

And from the Republican Party:

Elizabeth Dole (71)

Kay Bailey Hutchison (64)

Olympia Snowe (61)

Lisa Murkowski (Sen. from Alaska) (51)

Susan Collins (Sen. from Maine) (55)

 

Dole and Hutchison are probably too old. I could see Snowe running against incumbent Obama in 2012, but doesn't seem like a serious contender in spite of her solid track record. Lisa Murkowski could be interesting, but will have a tough time making a national name for herself if congress stays Democratically-controlled. And unfortunately the governorship of Alaska seems unlikely (see below).

 

Susan Collins has made a name for herself as a centrist, and might make an interesting national candidate.

 

Other names to watch would have to include Sarah Palin, the new governor of Alaska, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, a Representative from Florida who chaired Hillary's election committee.

 

What do you all think?

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

I'd hesitate to call people "too old" -- McCain is 71, and Reagan was 69 when he was first elected.

[CDarwin]

What about the governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius? She delivered the Democratic response to the State of the Union and I remember then that they were talking about her possibly being a VP candidate this time around. She's 60. And what ever happened to Condi? We had a diminutive named picked out for her and everything. She can't just fade into obscurity.

[PhDP]

Kathleen Sebelius would be a great choice for VP, IMO.

 

I'd hesitate to call people "too old" -- McCain is 71, and Reagan was 69 when he was first elected.

 

Yep, but they're men.

[ParanoiA]

What about the governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius? She delivered the Democratic response to the State of the Union and I remember then that they were talking about her possibly being a VP candidate this time around. She's 60. And what ever happened to Condi? We had a diminutive named picked out for her and everything. She can't just fade into obscurity.

 

I actually wondered about Condi myself. Wouldn't that be an interesting VP option for McCain? Let's hear the diminutive name though.

[CDarwin]

I actually wondered about Condi myself. Wouldn't that be an interesting VP option for McCain? Let's hear the diminutive name though.

 

'Condi' was what I was referring to.

[ParanoiA]

'Condi' was what I was referring to.

 

I'm an idiot. I thought you were using diminutive like 'belittle' or something, without seeing the obvious.

 

That's worse than looking for your glasses when they're still on your head.

[SkepticLance]

The most likely first woman President, as of this point in history, is Hillary Clinton. Obama has not chosen his running mate, but he would have to be very silly to ignore her, since she carries an awful lot of support.

 

If the result is Obama President and Clinton as VP, then she stands to inherit if he gets killed. There is a lot of speculation that he would be a prime target for assassination, since there are heaps of total nutters who cannot stand the idea of a black president.

[swansont]

The most likely first woman President, as of this point in history, is Hillary Clinton. Obama has not chosen his running mate, but he would have to be very silly to ignore her, since she carries an awful lot of support.

 

If the result is Obama President and Clinton as VP, then she stands to inherit if he gets killed. There is a lot of speculation that he would be a prime target for assassination, since there are heaps of total nutters who cannot stand the idea of a black president.

 

As opposed to the heaps of nutters who can't stand the idea of a woman president.

 

However, assuming the safety of the Obama is secured (and he wins): being veep is no lock to becoming president. Bush the elder did it, but does anyone know when the prior occurrence was of a sitting vp being elected president?

 

[hide]1836. Martin Van Buren.[/hide]

[Pangloss]

(races to beat iNow to the punch)

 

Al Gore!!!!!!!

[iNow]

(races to beat iNow to the punch)

 

Al Gore!!!!!!!

 

Lol... I am ashamed to admit that I hadn't even thought of that, but it was very clever (despite the fact that you continue to mis-peg me as some tried and true democrat who is left on every issue).

 

 

Swansont - That is an extrememly interesting piece of trivia. Thank you for sharing that.

[SkepticLance]

To swansont

 

The question related to probabilities. I gave what I see as the most probable answer. Sure, it very likely won't happen, but we are talking relative probabilities. From that point of view, I still say Hillary is the most probable first woman president at this point in history. Next year the probabilities might be different.

 

And wasn't Gerald Ford the last president to have entered office as VP replacing the boss? Admittedly not being elected, but still ending up president.

[Sisyphus]

Before George Bush Sr., the most recent VP to be elected into office was Harry Truman. And that was a squeaker!

[swansont]

Before George Bush Sr., the most recent VP to be elected into office was Harry Truman. And that was a squeaker!

 

Truman became president because of the death of FDR. He was re-elected as the sitting president, not the veep.

[ecoli]

MY money is on Sarah Palin. I could see her getting McCain's VP nod. Legend has it, she's popular, charismatic and principled.

[Kyrisch]

Unfortunately, I fear that Hillary was so successful because of her recognition as a result of her involvement in Bill's presidency. As such, I doubt that any of these women will have enough wind left when the nation is finally ready to elect a female president.

[CDarwin]

Yep, but they're men.

 

With women, it would seem to be that you can be too young. Women elected as national leaders (Margaret Thatcher, Anglela Merkel, Cristina Kirchner) tend to be of post-menopausal age.

[Sisyphus]

Truman became president because of the death of FDR. He was re-elected as the sitting president, not the veep.

 

D'oh! Boy do I look stupid. It seems the answer, then is Martin Van Buren, in 1836. Neat!

[Pangloss]

Getting back to the subject of who could be our first female president, an amusing meme began floating around the Web last week putting forth the notion that, just as Bill Clinton was our "first black president", Obama may usurp that role for women. The notion has appeared in several blogs, and most recently in op/ed pieces in the New York Times and the New York Post. Here are a couple of links.

 

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=06&year=2008&base_name=whos_your_daddy

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/15/opinion/15faludi.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5087&em&en=828c01f0d3a1e547&ex=1213761600

 

From the above article:

 

“In many ways, he really will be the first woman president,” Megan Beyer of Virginia, a charter member of Women for Obama, told reporters. An op-ed essay in The New York Post headlined “Bam: Our 1st Woman Prez?” came to a similar conclusion, if a tad more snidely: “Those shots of Barack and Michelle sitting with Oprah on stools had the feel of a smart, all-women talk panel.”