What does this bode?

[CDarwin]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7465170.stm

 

The Israelis have just finished a high profile military exercise over the Mediterranean which seems to foreshadow what an Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear facility might look like. Do you think the Israelis are just flexing their muscles or is this a serious preparation for going into Iran? I heard another interesting suggestion: Olmert might be trying to create a crisis to bolster his own domestic support.

[Sisyphus]

Sounds like just sabre-rattling to me. Israel wants everyone to know they're able and, potentially, willing to use force on a large scale. At the same time, they haven't explicitly stated their purposes, and so it's all deniable, and they're not actually forcing Iran to respond. It's definitely unsettling, but I doubt much will come of it.

[john5746]

I am glad at least one country is looking out for itself and not waiting for the US to do something - so it can then complain about the job done.

[ParanoiA]

I am glad at least one country is looking out for itself and not waiting for the US to do something - so it can then complain about the job done.

 

Amen to that.

[CDarwin]

I am glad at least one country is looking out for itself and not waiting for the US to do something - so it can then complain about the job done.

 

If an angry, nationalist, unified Iran is what's in Israel's best interests. Because that's what they'll get if they strike a nuclear facility, and it won't set Iran's nuclear project back that much in the first place. What it will do is convince Iran that it needs nuclear weapons.

[Pangloss]

I think there's some truth to that, but if the alternative is a mushroom cloud over Jerusalem and nobody is doing anything to stop that by more reasonable means, then last resort measures may be come necessary.

 

This is the price of appeasement, and the fault won't be Israel's, it'll be every UN member nation's.

[ParanoiA]

If Israel exercises this last resort, I'm sure it will be considered an "illegal action", criticized to no end. Whereas, if they would just let the UN get them destroyed with their paper tiger ideology then at least they died legally.

[CDarwin]

I don't see how Israel could act to really save itself, though. Any strikes are at best a stop-gap that have worse ramifications down the road.

 

Blowing stuff up isn't going to solve this.

[Dak]

I am glad at least one country is looking out for itself and not waiting for the US to do something - so it can then complain about the job done.

 

This one country, btw, being the single biggest reciever of US aid in the world.

[Sisyphus]

If an angry, nationalist, unified Iran is what's in Israel's best interests. Because that's what they'll get if they strike a nuclear facility, and it won't set Iran's nuclear project back that much in the first place. What it will do is convince Iran that it needs nuclear weapons.

 

Probably, but it's also worth making a distinction here between blowing up some nuclear power plant, and suggestively rehearsing for something like that. Maybe they're both bad ideas, but I think it's still a separable issue.

 

This one country, btw, being the single biggest reciever of US aid in the world.

 

Indeed. Israel is not nearly as self-sufficient in it's defense (and hence, by some standards, not nearly as sovereign) as they would have everyone believe. I can respect their vigilance and their desire for independence, but seeing as how we are footing the bill for much of this, you'd think they would at least consult us before using those American defense dollars for large-scale, aggressive stunts. Especially since we're then held responsible for their actions in the eyes of their neighbors.

[Pangloss]

Not to split hairs, but I would characterize it as more of a desire to make their current strength known to potential enemies, rather than saying "they're not as self-sufficient as they would have everyone believe". Israel's dependence on foreign support has never been a secret; it's the source of much of radical Muslim ire against the United States.

[Dak]

[...] but seeing as how we are footing the bill for much of this, you'd think they would at least consult us before using those American defense dollars for large-scale, aggressive stunts.

 

Maybe they did.

 

I don't think the US wants Iran to have nukes. And, as you said, they are american defence dollars.

[Pangloss]

Incidentally, Obama made a statement of strong support for Israel's attitude and behavior towards Iran today when asked about the training exercise.

[ecoli]

I find it more interesting that they publicized the training exercise than the fact that they did it. You have to assume that the Israeli military probably runs drills like this all the time... any military, especially as one as active as Israel's would. The publicizing indicates that it is indeed sabre rattling. The idea is, public displays of might make others less willing to attack you.

 

Sure, it might anger Iran a bit, but they're always looking for things to blame Israel and the west for anyway, so that's really nothing new.

 

I think if Iran built a nuclear reactor and israel knew were it was, they'd be sorely tempted to get rid of it. While the UN may condemn them, the US would back them up. The UN's own policy would prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons anyway, so while they may publicly condemn them, they could be secretly thanking them.

 

Alternatively, it could be a local political distraction to get Olmert's corruption charges off the news. Wars have been started for similar reasons before.

[Pangloss]

Yes, there was definitely a publicity angle, though I imagine it was really about specific-mission training as well. They do training all the time, just not on that scale -- this exercise was very large. In fact I haven't seen this written up anywhere, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the largest exercise they've ever run outside of American "red flag" efforts.

[CDarwin]

I find it more interesting that they publicized the training exercise than the fact that they did it. You have to assume that the Israeli military probably runs drills like this all the time... any military, especially as one as active as Israel's would. The publicizing indicates that it is indeed sabre rattling. The idea is, public displays of might make others less willing to attack you.[/Quote]

 

The thing took up half the Eastern Mediterranean, though. No matter what your intentions, it's a bit hard to keep that quiet.

 

You do bring up an interesting thought, though. I wonder how Israel can do any secret, large-scale exercise. It's not a big country. They don't have the Nevada desert deep in their interior that's shielded even from casual observation by any number of people.

 

Probably, but it's also worth making a distinction here between blowing up some nuclear power plant, and suggestively rehearsing for something like that. Maybe they're both bad ideas, but I think it's still a separable issue.

 

We'd gotten off track on to the issue of Israel actually attacking Iran. Or at least I had.

Edited June 22, 2008 by CDarwin
multiple post merged

[john5746]

Indeed. Israel is not nearly as self-sufficient in it's defense (and hence, by some standards, not nearly as sovereign) as they would have everyone believe. I can respect their vigilance and their desire for independence, but seeing as how we are footing the bill for much of this, you'd think they would at least consult us before using those American defense dollars for large-scale, aggressive stunts. Especially since we're then held responsible for their actions in the eyes of their neighbors.

 

I would not be surprised if they talked it over with Bush. He would welcome more urgency with talks, etc.