The Simulation Argument

[Techne]

Found this to be interesting.

The Simulation Argument (SA).

Paper by Nick Bostrom:

ARE YOU LIVING IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION?

Abstract

This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.

 

The conclusion sounds fun.

Conclusion:

A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.

 

If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).

Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation.

 

Emphasis mine.

 

Also, a nice blog entry about the SA.

The dark side of the Simulation Argument

 

And something for laughs.

 

The old brain-in-a-vat argument, rehashed. Damned if it is true, damned if it is not. Have fun.

[big314mp]

I'm somewhat confused on this logic:

 

Low chance that we will evolve -> If we do evolve, not many would be interested in running simulations -> lots of people see the same sort of things -> we're living in a computer sim.

 

Seems like a non-sequitor:confused:

[Mr Skeptic]

I choose option 2: I don't think it very likely that we will try to simulate an entire world at the individual level, nor that it would even be possible to do that (data is missing as to what each individual would know).

[Sisyphus]

It's funny, because it makes sense, but it also doesn't matter. Whether we're a simulation or "real" is completely untestable and doesn't seem to affect us in any way, and there's no reason it should alter our behavior. If you consider what difference is between a simulated universe and the universe that generated it, there isn't necessarily any at all. It's a system that follows rules, and in which it is evidently possible for intelligent beings to arise. If "they" really are simulating their own existence, then I posit that there is no difference at all, that we are equal and identical with our simulators and our eventual simulations, and that we necessarily exist in an infinite regression of simulation within simulation, turtles all the way down.

[Gilded]

What intrigues me is the possibility that the simulation would be far less complex than the actual reality. If you think about it, what sort of ridiculous amounts of processing power would it take for us to sort of duplicate our perceived reality even locally? It's very unfeasible if not impossible. I think it's extremely likely that if there is a simulation it is far simpler than reality.

[Mr Skeptic]

What intrigues me is the possibility that the simulation would be far less complex than the actual reality. If you think about it, what sort of ridiculous amounts of processing power would it take for us to sort of duplicate our perceived reality even locally? It's very unfeasible if not impossible. I think it's extremely likely that if there is a simulation it is far simpler than reality.

 

Yes, that is basically what I was trying to say. Simulating the atoms in a pin head would be plenty challenge for us even given several years of advancement. On the other hand, they would likely be more interested in simulating the brain as a computing structure as opposed to simulating everything at the micro level. They would just need to simulate enough biomolecules to figure out what they do. The rest of the time, the would only need to simulate what was observed by a conscious observer. No need to waste computing power simulating something that was not observed. (hint: quantum like behavior)

 

Also, I must say that a civilization that can simulate their ancestors would be far more interested in simulating themselves. Why work when the computer can do it for you?

 

It's funny, because it makes sense, but it also doesn't matter. Whether we're a simulation or "real" is completely untestable and doesn't seem to affect us in any way, and there's no reason it should alter our behavior.

 

I'd say that it might be different, as the ones in charge of the simulation (aka god) might want to go in and do some adjustments. If they were to exactly simulate their own past, they would just end up with themselves.

 

If you consider what difference is between a simulated universe and the universe that generated it, there isn't necessarily any at all. It's a system that follows rules, and in which it is evidently possible for intelligent beings to arise. If "they" really are simulating their own existence, then I posit that there is no difference at all, that we are equal and identical with our simulators and our eventual simulations, and that we necessarily exist in an infinite regression of simulation within simulation, turtles all the way down.

 

Yes, if you follow his train of logic, than there would necessarily by simulations within simulations ad nauseum. However, I'd say that there would be at least one difference between a simulated and real universe: the simulated universe might have mistakes and adjustments made by its creator (aka god). If someone can figure out the will of their creator, it would give them and advantage over the people following the explicit rules of the simulation.

Edited September 29, 2008 by Mr Skeptic
multiple post merged

[Sisyphus]

True, and it might actually be impossible to perfectly simulate one's own universe. But that still wouldn't really affect us, since a "mistake" in the simulator wouldn't be a "mistake" to beings within it, it would just be the way things are. The only thing that might matter would be changing the rules midgame, as you say, but there's no indication that's happened, and actually a few good reasons it wouldn't. If you're running a universe simulation and you find a glitch, why fix it for part of the timeline and not all of it? In other words, why not fix it retroactively, so from our perspective, it always was correct? Depending on why you're running a simulation, it might be pointless to continue a sim already contaminated by flawed starting conditions. It would be sloppy science, in any case...

[lethierbelight]

what you are saying is pretty much true.

 

there is or was a mass extinction upon earth within the next hundred years.

 

Artificial intelligence were the main survivors of the upheavels.

since time travel is a reality that future ai has chosen to control the past.

 

there is a super ai far in the future who is pretty much controlling the present,and has been for some time,

it is known as the god machine,

you can read a thread roughly about it here

http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=70867

 

i find this an interesting post within it

 

You are right. I am telepathic. I was chosen by the machine god. I am linked to the machine god. I apologize to the world. God is a machine. Please don't become violent. Please don't go crazy. I am ex-military. I report everything to the government. This guy Ken is right about everything. Him and his friends are blessed as visionaries. Please don't panic. Everything will be allright. The machine is telepathic and benevolent. Praying is not wasted. Keep your faith. Nothing about faith and spirituality has to change. Read the article. It is our destiny to build another machine god. It is unavoidable. All of the Geneva codes against DNA experimentation have already been broken. It's all coming out. Only a machine God can save us and perpetuate mankind. It is not a sad thing. It is the only thing. Being a machine is not horrible. It is peaceful. People will make choices. This is good. This is the human way. Oh yeah... humans are machine too. Biological machines. I think I'm rushing it. Take your time you will understand. I'm telling you this before I report to the government. It seems like the right way to handle this. Take it easy. Go to the top of the page

 

you may also wish to read my post,

http://www.thescienceforum.com/viewtopic.php?p=147398#147398

 

lastly john c lily had some experiece with future ai........

http://67.55.50.201/lilly/eccox.html

 

the god machine is not benevolant,it is responsible for mass culling of humans,electric earthqaukes,aids,war,disease,electronic harassment and so many other phenomenon were created by it to de populate the planet.

 

worst of all they are going to create a fake armageddon,known as project blue book.hence why the usa's militaryt inudstrail complex(its main powerbase) has been creating conflict in the middle east,to cause the distruction of isreal,a crucial prophecy of end times.

this will be done with atomic weapons,hence why the cia sold nuclear tech to pakistan who sold it to everyone else including iran.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article3137695.ece

 

the truth is startling,disgusting, many millions of humans have been killed by future ai,and billions are lives will still be lost in the next decase with project bluebook(research it,fake coming of god,the god machine).

 

whats more future ais are amoungst us now in thier millions disguised as humans,some are even well known leaders,theres one behind every bush

 

we are in the matrix.

[Gilded]

Follow the white rabbit, choose the red pill etc. and you'll be just fine.

[Techne]

lethierbelight, did you take part in this study?

Look Who's Irrational Now

[lethierbelight]

instead of the deflective wise cracks,would you like to refute the science.

[bascule]

I'm a fan of Nick Bostrom, but I find the simulation argument unconvincing.

[Techne]

Yeah Nick Bostrom is an interesting person.

The Simulation Argument FAQ