Pangloss Posted October 25, 2008 Posted October 25, 2008 Who do you think will actually win? (Bascule has a thread started here where you can cast your vote for who you think SHOULD win. This one is for who you think will be declared the winner.)
bascule Posted October 25, 2008 Posted October 25, 2008 http://fivethirtyeight.com presently predicts a 94.9% chance that Obama will win on election day
Realitycheck Posted October 25, 2008 Posted October 25, 2008 I voted for Obama just because 538 predicted that he would win by 94.9%.
Mr Skeptic Posted October 29, 2008 Posted October 29, 2008 http://fivethirtyeight.com presently predicts a 94.9% chance that Obama will win on election day View Poll Results: Who will be the next US President? This poll will close on 11-04-2008 at 08:56 PM Barack Obama 17 94.44% John McCain 1 5.56% Voters: 18. You have already voted on this poll Not too shabby, eh?
Pangloss Posted October 29, 2008 Author Posted October 29, 2008 So far as I know there's no evidence that any vote rigging is taking place, just vote registration. When Mickey Mouse shows up to vote, he will have to have more than large ears to get into a voting booth.
bascule Posted November 4, 2008 Posted November 4, 2008 obama will win by Vote Rigging. Not that I'm accusing them of anything, but the Republicans are in a far better position to rig a vote than the Democrats, considering the political affiliations of manufacturers of US e-voting machines, namely Diebold.
Pangloss Posted November 4, 2008 Author Posted November 4, 2008 Not that I'm accusing them of anything Well the 11,000 lawyers filling the hotels around me right now will probably think of something.
Gilded Posted November 4, 2008 Posted November 4, 2008 The newest Simpsons episode's intro was hilarious. "Six votes for President McCain." "Hey, I only meant one of those votes for McCain... this machine is rigged!" Anyway, the statistics support Obama's victory to such an extent that should he lose some people are likely to expel blocks of masonry-related ceramic material from their rectal cavities, so to speak.
bascule Posted November 7, 2008 Posted November 7, 2008 Well, Nate Silver of 538's final prediction is 348.6 electoral votes for Obama (as he uses a probabilistic model). The most likely outcome according to his model is that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana, which would make for a 353-185 win for Obama. Karl Rove projects Obama will lose North Carolina, for a 338-200 win. I'm guessing one of these two projections is correct. And neither were right... Obama won Indiana, which 538 predicted a 30% chance of, but neither rove nor 538 picked Well, the final results are in... Obama wins 364-173 which is more than 538's projections
Genecks Posted November 7, 2008 Posted November 7, 2008 I think the amount of people who voted for him is more impressive than his win.
Pangloss Posted November 7, 2008 Author Posted November 7, 2008 I don't think we have Missouri yet, do we?
bascule Posted November 9, 2008 Posted November 9, 2008 Okay, I'm wrong again. One of Nebraska's split electoral votes ended up going to Obama, for a final total of 365-173
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now