Karl Rove predicts 338-200 Barack Obama victory

[bascule]

http://www.rove.com/election

 

And in other news, http://FiveThirtyEight.com is now showing Obama's chances of victory at 98.1%

 

I think it's all wrapped up at this point... Obama is the next President of the United States

 

Hooray!

[iNow]

That's in line with the projections made at the round table yesterday on THIS WEEK with George Stephanopoulis. I won't starting counting chickens until eggs have hatched, though, not that I don't share your optimism.

[tvp45]

I hope you're right, but I have to say I feel sorry for the poor guy. The auto sales figures for October just came across and it's the pits! By January we'll be in a deep recession and I'm fearful there's not much a president can do except try to provide a safety net for those of us who fall off the cliff while we're waiting for the economy to improve. Oh, wait - we could try cooperating with the rest of the world.

 

Although I have to hope President Obama proves as steadfast, unswerving, and efficient in his administration as Candidate Obama has been. I think this week so far I've heard from the Senator, Michelle, Bill Clinton, Hillary, Ed Rendell, and Dan Rooney (president of the Steelers); I've got a car magnet, sixteen e-mail thank you's, a chance to win a ticket to Chicago, and an offer to buy a T-shirt. And, it's only Monday!

[Riogho]

We all know how good Karl Rove is at doing stuff.

[bascule]

We all know how good Karl Rove is at doing stuff.

 

Was that a serious comment or are you being sarcastic? If it's the latter, I'm curious as to why you think that way.

[Pangloss]

I think it's in the bag as well. I hope it is -- we don't need another close, contested election.

 

The state to watch tomorrow is Pennsylvania. That would nullify Obama "gains" (over Bush 2004) in half a dozen states and make the contest fairly close. That's why McCain put so much of his focus there late in the campaign.

 

Incidentally, McCain wrapped up his campaign in Prescott, Arizona. There's historical context to that, but it happens to be the same place that Goldwater wrapped in '64. Not a good choice, lol.

 

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Incidentally, I think it would be cool if we all dipped our fingers in purple ink at the polls this year, in solidarity with our Iraqi friends. Wouldn't that be cool? Too late now, I guess. Wish I'd thought of it months ago.

[bascule]

The state to watch tomorrow is Pennsylvania.

 

I guess. Obama has an 8 point lead in the polls there...

[Pangloss]

Right, but you'd expect that because it went for Kerry in 2004. It's really the only high-pop state where McCain has seen any sign of a reversal trend, which is why he spent so much time there, but as you say the polls suggest that that effort fell well short (whereas Obama has swung nearly all the swing states in the polls, plus a lot that nobody would have expected to swing given their 2004 votes). The point being if PA doesn't fall in that first hour nothing else really matters, and you can go to bed early.

 

Another thing to observe, albeit for more academic reasons, is vote totals. 120 million people voted in 2004 (a record), but predictions run in the 145+ range. As happened in 2004, the loser could get more votes than the winner in the previous election (even if it's not all that close in the electoral college).

 

Many states have warned voters that lines could go past 3 am Wednesday (the polls close at 7 in most states, but if you're in line at that time they have to let you vote). In particular this might happen in areas dominated by African American voters, who typically vote less frequently, and therefore polls typically have fewer machines (1/400+ voters instead of the typical 1/200 in white areas).

 

(The numbers in the last two paragraphs are from ABC News tonight.)

[Riogho]

It's also raining in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. That tends to make a less higher turnout among the low-income voters (usually Obama). But I seriously doubt this will be close electorally.

[Pangloss]

I don't think the weather's going to matter a whole lot this year. Especially not with 25% of the country having already voted.

[iNow]

Turns out it went 338 to 163. Where did those other 37 electoral votes Rove spoke about go? He said 338 to 200.

 

 

[ATTACH]1966[/ATTACH]

 

(from CNN)

[npts2020]

They stole them and hid them up their sleeve for next election.

[Riogho]

Georgia Missouri and North Carolina are still undecided.

[bascule]

There's still an outstanding electoral vote in Nebraska that might go to Obama

 

Crazy to see Indiana go for Obama

[iNow]

I figured as much, just didn't know which states. Thanks, Riogho and Bascule.