US Senate election results

[bascule]

There's bee a lot of speculation that Democrats might get the 60 seats needed in the Senate to have a cloture vote and thus prevent filibustering.

 

The polls don't show that as being particularly likely. 538 projects the Democrats may get 58 seats, but it's far more likely they'll get 57.

 

What do you think?

[jackson33]

Turn out and coat tails....To be honest I fear 59 with Mn. Rep Coleman 1% lead in the poles, while Obama leads by 12%. Looks like Dole will lose, even if McCain takes NC...If you have faith in '538' projections, they base much of their results on the same factors and they are projecting an Obama Landslide (300 EV)

 

If Obama wins (most likely will) their will be a certain element in opposing the first Black President on virtually any issue by several current Senators due up in 2010. Then Collins and a couple others tend to vote with Democrats on Social Issues, which most bills coming from the House are based on. I don't think anything short of 55 Dem's will give problems to their agenda...I expect a complete cleaning of Republicans from the Federal Judicial system (non-tenured,) and most all higher department management, but then most will quit anyway...

[Mr Skeptic]

If Obama wins (most likely will) their will be a certain element in opposing the first Black President on virtually any issue by several current Senators due up in 2010.

 

If McCain wins (most likely won't), there will be a certain element in opposing Mr. Old, White, Male, Republican-that-is-too-similar-to-Bush on virtually any issue by several current Senators due up in 2010.

[Pangloss]

Al Franken's Minnesota run is really annoying. Why would anyone want someone like Michael Moore or Rush Limbaugh in the United States Senate? That Coleman fellow must have beaten up and old woman or something.

[NeonBlack]

Al Franken's Minnesota run is really annoying. Why would anyone want someone like Michael Moore or Rush Limbaugh in the United States Senate? That Coleman fellow must have beaten up and old woman or something.

 

PG, Would you mind explaining what you mean by this?

[Pangloss]

I'm accusing him of being an ideological extremist who spends most of his time blaming one of the political parties for the world's ills. His show on Air America was directly comparable to that of Rush Limbaugh on the opposing side. Anybody who shudders at the thought of Rush Limbaugh as a United States Senator should have exactly the same immediate reaction to the notion of Al Franken as a United States Senator -- they are one and the same. Michael Moore is a similar animal.

[iNow]

You should check out Greg Laden's blog about Franken. He posts on scienceblogs.com. He and PZ Myers, who both live in Minnesota, have argued pretty heavily against Franken's opponent (in favor of Franken):

 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/

http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/

[NeonBlack]

Although I do support Franken, I can't exactly disagree with you for the most part. I do think your comparison of him to Rush and Moore (the 2 most disgusting figures in American politics, in my opinion) is a tad unfair though.

So basically, yes, Norm Coleman is THAT BAD.

[Pangloss]

Thanks, I'll take a look but at a glance I don't see anything specifically laying out a moderate case for Franken, which is what I'd be looking for.

 

I should qualify my point a couple posts above by just saying that, like I suggested in post #4, I don't know anything about Coleman so I can't say that I would definitely vote for him ahead of Franken. If I lived in MN I'd have to take a serious look at it and I'll respect anyone who says they did look at both candidates and decided on Franken. I'm just somewhat aghast at the idea in general.

 

I had a similar dilemma myself in my local House race, having to decide between a Republican incumbent whom I've ranted about many times, and a Democrat who was twice convicted of major felonies including bribery and racketeering, and was once caught on camera participating in a riot by clubbing a minor on the head! I couldn't bring myself to vote for the latter in spite of my anger with the former, but I can understand why he will get so many votes tonight and may even win.

 

People aren't just ready for change. They're screaming for it at the top of their lungs.

[bascule]

Kay Hagan has defeated Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina... which is notable as this marks the end of the Dole dynasty

[iNow]

It also shows how:

 

1) Negative campaigning is not what people want any more

2) Accusing your oppenent of being "godless" no longer guarantees their defeat (woohoo!! go acceptance of atheism in the USA!!)

 

 

Dole's numbers dropped amazingly fast after she ran this ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuS342L22QI

[Mr Skeptic]

It also shows how:

 

1) Negative campaigning is not what people want any more

 

I don't mind so much the negative campaigning, as much as it is completely made up negative stuff. That's what really pissed me off.

 

2) Accusing your oppenent of being "godless" no longer guarantees their defeat (woohoo!! go acceptance of atheism in the USA!!)

 

Perhaps, but if you are going to criticize someone's pastor, mention how long the guy had gone to that church, etc., then accusing them of being godless seems a bit baseless.

[NeonBlack]

It's VERY close here in Minnesota. This is killing me.

From MSN:

Al Franken (Dem) 511,769 42%

Norm Coleman (Rep) * 504,801 42%

Dean Barkley (Inp) 184,378 15%

With 40% reporting.

 

In case you're wondering, Dean Barkley was the person appointed by Jesse V****** (We don't say his name) 6 years ago to finish Paul Wellstone's term.

[Riogho]

Perhaps, but if you are going to criticize someone's pastor, mention how long the guy had gone to that church, etc., then accusing them of being godless seems a bit baseless.

 

I don't think it is Obama he is talking about. There was some senate race somewhere where a lady accused another one of being 'godless'.

 

It's VERY close here in Minnesota. This is killing me.

From MSN:

 

With 40% reporting.

 

In case you're wondering, Dean Barkley was the person appointed by Jesse V****** (We don't say his name) 6 years ago to finish Paul Wellstone's term.

 

Franken lost in the end though, eh? Minnesota has been pretty reliably democrat, but I still find it odd that someone as radical as Franken got so close to getting the seat.

[bascule]

Franken lost in the end though, eh?

 

No, you can expect this one to drag out for awhile. The margins are so close state law demands a mandatory recount.

[iNow]

I don't think it is Obama he is talking about. There was some senate race somewhere where a lady accused another one of being 'godless'.

Correct, I believe it was North Carolina.

 

Also, how in the world did Prop 8 pass in California? Yay to ammending your state constitution in a way which actively discriminates based on sexuality! Go you!

http://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/stories/2008/11/03/daily13.html

 

 

I really love the way religion brings people together in our country... with torches and pitch forks.

[Pangloss]

I've decided that I'm going to be okay with a Franken victory, and might even enjoy watching him in the Senate a bit, and I don't mean that in a sarcastic way. He'll have to learn the same hard lessons as any other senator, and he'll have to decide whether he's going to be effective (which means acknowledging and embracing some level of moderacy) or ineffective-but-true-to-his-extreme. That's the way it should be.

 

Anyway he may not even get the chance. The articles I've read suggest that it's highly unlikely he'll survive the recount. But we'll see.

 

---------------

 

On the subject of gay marriage, I was pretty shocked by the passage of so many measures and amendments on that issue in so many states. We passed one here in Florida as well, adding a definition against gay marriage to our constitution (I voted against it). I don't understand why that issue continues to resonate amongst so many voters. Maybe it's religion, I don't know. I just don't get that one.

[Sisyphus]

I don't understand why that issue continues to resonate amongst so many voters. Maybe it's religion, I don't know. I just don't get that one.

 

Yeah. It's crazy. I do have some theories, though, which might be worth a few rambling paragraphs of Sisyphus-style, wildly speculative analysis.

[NeonBlack]

Right now, the unofficial tally shows Coleman up by 462 votes.

There will certainly be a recount and it will probably take a long time. Both parties are assembling a team of lawyers.

 

In other news, I heard that Ted "series of tubes" Stevens was re-elected.

What happens now?

Does he serve his term from prison?

Does he get impeached?

Do they pick someone else?

[jackson33]

---------------

On the subject of gay marriage, I was pretty shocked by the passage of so many measures and amendments on that issue in so many states. We passed one here in Florida as well, adding a definition against gay marriage to our constitution (I voted against it). I don't understand why that issue continues to resonate amongst so many voters. Maybe it's religion, I don't know. I just don't get that one.

 

Keep in mind those are NOT referendums on same sex couples, but the extension of rights prescribed under current law or if you prefer a sanctioned status and recognized by the state. Any two people, or for that matter three to 100 can make agreements under contract law. If two individuals who CHOOSE to live together, for whatever reason then how could the rights granted gay/lesbians (taxes/death benefits/welfare) be denied two sisters of brothers, parent and grown children, even to friends then not be granted the same. Polygamist groups in turn would be justified to demand sanctioning and on down the slippery slope. Religion only come in when a church, grants 'Holy' status to marriage and recognition by the State not necessary, which many Church's have been doing.

 

Neon; Talk about error in polls, Stevens went into the election 15 point down and may have won, recount pending...If it holds and he is sentenced, goes to jail for 5 years each count or life and if the appeals fails...and if Alaska does not have a recall choice (20 States do) it will be up to a Democratic Majority in the Senate to remove him from service on moral clauses. They could leave his seat vacant or remove, allowing the Governor of Alaska to replace him...The Governor being Ms. Palin would no doubt pick a republican that would be seated (not helping Dem's). I don't know if possible, but Ms. Palin could also pick herself or resign and let her Lt. Governor pick her, taking Stevens seat for the next 5-6 years. That would be the Dem's worst scenario possible giving Plain a stage for 2012...

[Pangloss]

Keep in mind those are NOT referendums on same sex couples, but the extension of rights prescribed under current law or if you prefer a sanctioned status and recognized by the state.

 

I agree, but that doesn't make it any less odd or incomprehensible to me. (shrug)

 

Your slippery slope argument doesn't work (I know, because I used to use it myself), because we do specific grantings of exceptions under law in this country all the time.

[iNow]

I find it disgusting. Institutionalized bigotry. Two steps forward, one step backward I suppose.

[Riogho]

They passed the same type of gaymarriage ban in Arizona as well

 

On the subject of Stevens though, it is Alaska law that is someone is expelled from the Senate seat (as stevens will be in january), then a special election will be held. HOWEVER, if Stevens resigns before he is expelled, the governor (Who's that again?) can appoint a senator.

 

So basically, they voted stevens because they didn't want to see their Republican seat given up.

 

(to watch) See if Palin appoints herself, and after 4 years of senate experience running for president in 2012. Like that would happen, lol? Who the hell would elect someone with only 4 years of senate experience?!?!

[Mr Skeptic]

Aren't all marriages supposed to be gay?

 

Definitions of gay on the Web:

 

* cheery: bright and pleasant; promoting a feeling of cheer; "a cheery hello"; "a gay sunny room"; "a sunny smile"

* full of or showing high-spirited merriment; "when hearts were young and gay"; "a poet could not but be gay, in such a jocund company"- Wordsworth; "the jolly crowd at the reunion"; "jolly old Saint Nick"; "a jovial old gentleman"; "have a merry Christmas"; "peals of merry laughter"; "a mirthful ...

* given to social pleasures often including dissipation; "led a gay Bohemian life"; "a gay old rogue with an eye for the ladies"

* brave: brightly colored and showy; "girls decked out in brave new dresses"; "brave banners flying"; "`braw' is a Scottish word"; "a dress a bit too gay for her years"; "birds with gay plumage"

* offering fun and gaiety; "a festive (or festal) occasion"; "gay and exciting night life"; "a merry evening"

[Pangloss]

Cute.

 

On the subject of Stevens though, it is Alaska law that is someone is expelled from the Senate seat (as stevens will be in january), then a special election will be held. HOWEVER, if Stevens resigns before he is expelled, the governor (Who's that again?) can appoint a senator.

 

Here too Alaskan law is ultimately irrelevent, just as it was with regard to his conviction in Federal court. Ostensibly Alaskan authorities have a say in the matter, but it will likely be moot. The Senate will expel Stevens of its own accord.

 

And that will be an interesting show in itself, because the Senate has not expelled a member since the Civil War.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_senators_expelled_or_censured