Franken vs. Coleman

[bascule]

This is certainly shaping up to be one of the narrowest Senate races in history. With millions of votes cast, the difference between the two candidates has narrowed to a mere 200 votes, representing one hundredth of one percent of all votes cast. This is before a mandatory recount required by state law.

 

One thing I do find interesting is how much of Coleman's meager lead has shrunk over the past week. This comes in a state with some onerous provisions that some have argued are intended to cause voter suppression and disenfranchisement, so much so that the Secretary of State's own ballot was marked as suspect.

[iNow]

So, how is this going to be straightened out? Will this be another election decided by judges?

[bascule]

Most likely, but the initial way they'll try to straighten it out is a recount.

[JohnB]

The closest election I was ever involved in came down to 60 votes out of 22,000.

 

200 out of millions? That is almost impossibly close. Should be interesting.

[bascule]

FiveThirtyEight is predicting that Franken will beat Coleman by 27 votes.

 

If so, this will effectively give the Democrats 59 seats in the Senate, meaning they need only one Republican to come to their side to end a filibuster.

[Pangloss]

And we all know who that one is most likely to be, right?

 

If not, here's a hint: He's one of the four surviving Republicans from the Gang of 14, which was specifically formed for the purpose of avoiding filibusters, and he is the least socially conservative of those four. Which of course is a big part of why he was fêted at the president-elect's office in Chicago just last week.

 

 

It's fun to watch the Big Game in the early stages, isn't it?

Edited November 24, 2008 by Pangloss

[Riogho]

The closest election I was ever involved in came down to 60 votes out of 22,000.

 

200 out of millions? That is almost impossibly close. Should be interesting.

 

Brenda Brum won the house of delegates seat by 2 votes here in WV.

 

Yeah my vote!

[JohnB]

WV= West Virginia?

 

2 votes? And people wonder why I say that every vote is important.

[Riogho]

Yeah, WV = West Virginia.

 

It was a 6 person race for 3 delegate seats, and she got in by 2 votes. Her total vote was in like the 9000s. Initially she had lost by 2 votes, but after a recount, she ended up winning, which is pretty good.

[john5746]

and we all know who that one is most likely to be, right?

 

lol

[bascule]

Talking Points Memo reports that Coleman's lead has narrowed to 13 votes

[bascule]

UPDATE: The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Coleman's official lead has shrank to 5 votes and projects Franken will win with a lead of 89 votes

[iNow]

Yeah, but it also seems that thousands of ballots are awaiting a verdict on eligibility from the state Supreme Court, which could turn any existing counts completely on their head.

 

Interestingly, it appears that the Flying Spaghetti Monster got a vote, even though the Lizard People didn't.

[bascule]

Franken is now in the lead with 251 votes

[npts2020]

Does anyone know for sure how or why the ballots get "challenged" to begin with?

[iNow]

Does anyone know for sure how or why the ballots get "challenged" to begin with?

 

It would seem that challenges are initiated by the campaigns themselves, however, I imagine some sort of voting oversight group also exists. This page links to some good data with actual examples of challenges:

 

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/minnesota-challenged-ballot-examples.html

The vast majority of challenges on both sides are frivolous, often utterly so. Perhaps 1 in 10 challenges -- maybe slightly more than that -- actually required a judgment call of some kind.

 

 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/12/16/minnesota-officials-eye-challenged-senate-ballots/

Ballots have been challenged — and rejected — for a number of reasons, many because of ovals not properly filled in, some because of identifying marks — initials or signatures — made by voters on their ballots, and others for stray markings, particularly in the areas with the candidates' names.

[bascule]

Franken's unofficial lead has now grown to 225 votes:

 

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/37047159.html

 

Unless Coleman's challenge with the state supreme court prevails, it looks like we're going to have a Senator Franken on our hands here.

 

Republicans have promised a filibuster were Democrats to attempt to seek Franken before Coleman has completely exhausted all of his legal options.

---

Merged post follows:

Consecutive posts merged

UPDATE:

 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/01/04/mn-board-to-certify-frankens-win-in-tight-senate-race/

 

The state election board will certify Franken as the winner on Monday

[iNow]

Sweet....

 

Does that mean there is nothing Coleman can do to take it away?

[bascule]

Sweet....

 

Does that mean there is nothing Coleman can do to take it away?

 

Coleman can still challenge the election board by taking it to the state supreme court.

 

Unless his challenge succeeds, no, Al Franken is the winner.

[Pangloss]

It's interesting to me that when Coleman was ahead by 200-some votes there was firm conviction in the Franken camp that Franken had won. Now that Franken is ahead by 200-some votes there is -- surprise -- firm conviction in the Franken camp that Franken has won. I think it will be interesting to read independent, technical analysis on this after it's all said and done. If there's an actual basis for that conviction, and it's not just speculation or hunches based on voting region trends or whatever, then I want to know what it is.

[iNow]

Coleman can still challenge the election board by taking it to the state supreme court.

 

Unless his challenge succeeds, no, Al Franken is the winner.

 

Pharyngula's comments in a blog post this morning made me laugh:

 

 

http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/01/senator_al_franken.php

Expect 5-alarm histrionics from the right wing, howls of outrage on talk radio, and the wing nut blogs to go ballistic. Also expect the Coleman campaign to charge the state supreme court and demand to be handed the office. It will be very entertaining. The freakout is only warming up.

[ecoli]

Pharyngula's comments in a blog post this morning made me laugh:

 

 

http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/01/senator_al_franken.php

Expect 5-alarm histrionics from the right wing, howls of outrage on talk radio, and the wing nut blogs to go ballistic. Also expect the Coleman campaign to charge the state supreme court and demand to be handed the office. It will be very entertaining. The freakout is only warming up.

 

I don't like reading his blog anymore...

 

I mean come on. If Coleman had one by the same margin, his supports would be freaking out just as much.

 

Read the first comment "Finally, a victor! So the Dems basically have a 59 - 41 advantage, not quite veto proof, but quite a mandate."

 

Sure it's a "mandate" but now, the Dems have nobody else to blame when the screw up (which they certainly will).

[bascule]

I think it will be interesting to read independent, technical analysis on this after it's all said and done. If there's an actual basis for that conviction, and it's not just speculation or hunches based on voting region trends or whatever, then I want to know what it is.

 

You might read Nate Silver's analysis on why he predicted Franken would win the recount late last November. It basically comes down to the race being extremely close and Franken generally netting more votes than Coleman throughout the recount:

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html

[DJBruce]

Just a question can Congress seat Franken even if the Secretary of State is unable to certify the results because Coleman challenges to the Supreme Court?

[bascule]

Just a question can Congress seat Franken even if the Secretary of State is unable to certify the results because Coleman challenges to the Supreme Court?

 

There's a 7 day window now before the results are actually certified and Franken can officially be seated in the Senate. During this time Coleman can file a lawsuit with the State Supreme Court. Coleman's lawyers have pledged to file a suit within 24 hours.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28495674/