ghost theory

[SkepticLance]

Randi's testing has to be flexible, since the prize is for ANY genuine psychic ability. However, whatever the supposed ability, it has to be demonstrated under scientifically rigorous conditions that prevent fraud. So far the success rate is zero. Every would-be psychic has been shown to be either merely self-deluded, or a deliberate fraud.

[JohnB]

Just so I've got this right.

 

Offering money to psychics to get them to prove their case is a good and laudable thing to do, but offering money to AGW proponents for the same reason gets you 10 points on the "Crackpot Index"?

 

(Just having fun.)

[npts2020]

Just so I've got this right.

 

Offering money to psychics to get them to prove their case is a good and laudable thing to do, but offering money to AGW proponents for the same reason gets you 10 points on the "Crackpot Index"?

 

(Just having fun.)

 

Well psychics can be unequivocally be sown to be wrong, how about AGW proponents?

[Scarface]

the concept of ghosts depends on wether or not you believe. if you believe then you will probably be able to pick up phenomona.

[iNow]

Tell me, scarface... How is it exactly that the detection device(s) know whether or not I believe? Is it possible that you are talking about interpretation of results (or, more appropriately, null and inconsistent results) instead of the results themselves?

[Kyrisch]

the concept of ghosts depends on wether or not you believe. if you believe then you will probably be able to pick up phenomona.

 

This even has a name, and is a common phenomenon in psychological studies -- confirmation bias.

[MustKnow]

Why can you only see ghost at night?

[phantom]

Why can you only see ghost at night?

I saw one during the day.

[foodchain]

Yer average "psychic" tends to be skilled at psychiatric tricks, much as a stage "mentalist" is. In other words, they could quite well pick up cues that homicide investigators give unwittingly about their hunches, and could quite well have the capacity to "profile" a killer much like a legitimate psychiatrist would. Hence, even a fraud may have some use in some investigations. I have heard that there's psychics out there trying to make a name for themselves that along with a few hundred other crackpots, phone in a prediction for every murder that appears in the media, they only have to get "close" every so often in well publicised cases to be able to say "Look how good I am".

 

Can I use that on a t-shirt?

[JohnB]

Quite simply, if someone had a psychic power that was genuine, they woud have gone for, and won the million dollar prize. No-one has, and that is pretty close to proof positive that such abilities do not exist.

 

One point that most people haven't considered is that it's very hard to spend that money if you're dead. Any person who demonstrated an actual ability to read minds (for example) would immediately have a large bulls eye painted on them.

 

Spook outfits would want them to spy "for their country", other spooks would want them dead so they can't. Organised crime would want them dead to prevent the police using them.

 

And that doesn't even start to include the scientific outfits that would want them as lab rats for life to discover how it's done.

 

$1 million isn't nearly enough. Anybody with any real ability and a modicum of common sense would stay far away from the Randi challenge.

[Kyrisch]

One point that most people haven't considered is that it's very hard to spend that money if you're dead. Any person who demonstrated an actual ability to read minds (for example) would immediately have a large bulls eye painted on them.

 

They would also, presumably, have a very good weapon for defense against attacks on their life -- namely the ability to read minds.

 

The main point of the Randi Challenge is not only that no one has successfully won the money, but that many contestants have actually engaged the challenge under the genuine impression that they had supernatural ability, and then were forced to reconsider after failing to produce significant results in a controlled setting. So it's not like no one who sincerely believes that they can do it has tried.

[Sisyphus]

And yet, AFAIK, no "psychic" in the modern world has ever been assassinated, no matter how publicly they declare their "abilities" nor how large their following. Ronald Reagan consulted astrologers. Billy Graham has told several presidents what God wants. And a number of police departments have sought the assistance of psychics, convinced of their efficacy even without Randi's prize.

 

Obviously it's impossible to prove that nobody is out there hiding psychic abilities, but there are plenty who loudly proclaim themselves and are widely believed even by the powerful, and face no consequences.

[A Tripolation]

A competent hitman would WANT you to think that no modern psychic has haver been assassinated. There very well could have been for all we know.

[JohnB]

Kyrisch and Sisyphus. I take your points and agree with them.

 

I was pointing out the difference between someone who is "widely believed to have abilities" and someone who is "proven to have abilities".

 

No criminal is going to be afraid of any psychic, no matter how popular because they are well aware that it wouldn't get past the judge. Someone who is proven to have abilities would be a threat though.

 

Maybe such people exist, maybe they don't. If they do, then perhaps they would only come into the open if there was some way they could be protected from exploitation and assassination.

 

The Corps is Mother, the Corps is Father.

[Kyrisch]

A competent hitman would WANT you to think that no modern psychic has haver been assassinated. There very well could have been for all we know.

 

Yelling "conspiracy!!!" is one of the most useless devices in debate. In all but a very precious few cases the principle of parsimony (Occam's Razor) trumps such ad hoc logic.

[Edtharan]

No criminal is going to be afraid of any psychic, no matter how popular because they are well aware that it wouldn't get past the judge. Someone who is proven to have abilities would be a threat though.

I disagree. Criminals know that the police have many different ways of identifying them form remains left at the crime scene, stuff that would, a century ago, borer on almost magical ability (DNA, Polilights, CCTV, etc).

 

And yet, crimes still happen.

 

Unless these psychics were 100% reliable and could see every single crime no matter how small, then criminals will still attempt crimes (and even if this were the case, I still think they would occur).

 

Crimes are not usually attempted because they think they will get away with it. Crimes are usually done out of desperation (or at least the perception of it).

 

Psychics would have no impact on this.

 

But psychics would be just one form of intelligence gathering. It would be possible to manipulate people into believing that they were going to do a crime (planning, etc) and then have them stop just as the police are mobilising to stop it. As the police are a finite entity, such misdirections would cost them hugely and would make the psychic almost useless, and as all participants in that crime would believe it to be real, up to the point of stopping, the psychic would not be able to use their mind reading to counter act it.

 

Also, these criminals, if the could get their own hands on a genuine psychic would also ahve intelligence on what the police psychics were doing. In other words, it would not be much different from the current state it is now.

 

The best argument against any psychic power is Evolution.

 

If a population of animals (or humans) had any form of psychic power and no one else did, then this would be a massive evolutionary advantage. If you could predict the future, then you could see droughts coming and store more food to get you through it. If you could read minds, then you would be able to see an enemy raid on your settlement and so hide well before they get there, or if you are attacking, you know where their warriors are located, or where their population is trying to hide form you, or even when their warriors are off hunting and so could not defend their settlement from your raid. OR, your warriors could communicate silently with each other and so better sneak around after prey, or enemies.

 

So, any population that has these kinds of abilities, they would survive better than any other. Also, if they had more of their population, or their population were better at it, then they would survive better.

 

As that population would survive better, then the genes that enabled these kinds of abilities would proliferate and the abilities would spread to more of your population. As the genes for it would be selected, then any improvements in the abilities would also spread through your population. And so forth until such abilities were in everyone and to high fidelity.

 

So, why can't we all use psychic powers? Even if these powers aren't genetic, but were learned, any culture that could pass on knowledge (any knowledge) would be able to do so and this would have the same effect as if they were genetic (they would be transmitted as memes and so be memetic).

 

So again, where are all the true psychics? The only answer that solves this is: That psychic powers are impossible.

[Sisyphus]

Per Edtharan, I defer to Niven's Law #5: "Psi and/or magical powers, if real, are nearly useless."

 

And I don't see how the distinction between "widely believed, even by the powerful" and "legitimately proven" would matter as regards motivation for assassination. (Except in that real psychic powers would be an outstanding defense against it.) Yet rich frauds live still.

[Edtharan]

Per Edtharan, I defer to Niven's Law #5: "Psi and/or magical powers, if real, are nearly useless."

Even "nearly useless" is in some measure useful. If something is useful, then all else being in equilibrium, this "nearly useless" thing becomes almost infinity useful.

 

So I disagree here with Larry Niven here.

 

To win (at evolution) you don't have to run faster than the Tiger, you just have to run faster than the other guy.

 

So even if you can run only a little bit faster than "the other guy", then you will beat him and the Tiger will not eat you.

 

If you can predict a Tiger attack only a fraction of a second faster than the next guy, then you will have that fraction of a second head start.

 

Evolution acts to multiply any small effect into a large effect over generations. So a "nearly useless" advantage is worth far more than Niven is willing to give it.

[Sisyphus]

Well, not necessarily. It could just be relatively recent, or go hand in hand with some disadvantage, or for some reason be nearly useless in the modern world but outright useless as a hunter gatherer. Otherwise, yeah, I agree.

[insane_alien]

or it could just be so useless that it is overwhelmed by other effects.

 

in the bear situation, being able to run 3 nanometers/second faster than the otherguy isn't going to help you much and whether you live and die is probably going to depend more on the wind or what you had for breakfast than the fact you can run slightly faster.

[ydoaPs]

conditional information: Are ghost, but actually see a ghost, but actually see them by the use of the eye from the phenomenon is picked up directly by the use of the eye from the passengers. hullo swansont: sorry I sent conditions drift to being unfamiliar with procedure, it may believe we see a psychic entering the eye. That part of the use of complex equipment:confused: what part of the upper and lower end of the brain. People such as mediums can at will, can at will, can at will, can drift to that is, light is, light is not enteresting question, are ghost, but actually the eye. That is, light is picked up directly by the optic and lower end of the phenomena, we do not actually the phenomena but, the mind under certain conditional informations drifts towards them by they just follow a set pattern they follow a set part of the brain. People such as mediums can at will, can drifts towards the upper and auditory nerves. Before this without the use of the phenomena but, the phenomena, we do not actually the use of the phenomena but, the phenomena but, the phenomenon is procedure, it may happen again conditions for this can drift to that pattern they answer back if complex equipment:confused: what is, light is picked up directly by the optic and auditory nerves. Before this can happen. such as spirits, ghosts and other phenomenon is picked up directly by the upper and lower end other into that part of the eye from the phenomenon is projected into that part of the spectromagnetic spectrum. Thus, we may believe we see the optic and a sequence of the best way to wind coils without the phenomenon is projected into that part of the eye from the phenomena but, the phenomena, we see them by the best way to wind coils without the phenomenon is picked up directly by the optic and auditory nerves.

[insane_alien]

ydoaps are you pasting content from durationbot again?

[ydoaPs]

ydoaps are you pasting content from durationbot again?

 

No, actually.

[insane_alien]

then what?

[ydoaPs]

New bot on the site. It lets you choose which user from which to take material and the length of the post.