The "I Admit I'm Wrong" Game!

[bascule]

Let's play the "I Admit I'm Wrong" Game!

 

Here are the rules:

 

1. Link the relevant post, providing a quote of something you said where you believe you were wrong
   
2. Provide information about what lead you to the conclusion that you're wrong, preferably with a link to another SFN member's post
   
3. Provide a statement of what you believe now and what lead you to that conclusion
   

 

As the creator of the "I Admit I'm Wrong" game, I'll go first!

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Merged post follows:

Consecutive posts merged

1) Link:

 

http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?p=504509#post504311

 

The purple line is not the trend line. One of its endpoints is the 20th century mean' date=' the other is the mean for 2008:

 

Based on data through the end of 2008, the contiguous U.S. experienced a nationally averaged temperature that was the coolest in more than ten years. The average temperature of 53.0°F (11.7°C) was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century (1901-2000) mean.

 

I'm not sure why they plotted it like that, however you seem to be using it to argue that the overall trend is 0.1 C of warming (for the contiguous 48 states).

 

This is wrong! The plot does not show the 1901-2000 mean on one side and the 2008 mean surface temperature on the left.

 

2) What lead me to this conclusion was this post by Mokele. Thanks Mokele!

 

http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?p=504509#post504509

 

The purple line is explicitly labeled as the mean. A mean is just a single value, thus appears as a horizontal line. It conveys no information about the relationship over time.

 

That makes so much sense! The mean they have plotted is a single value calculated from the entire set! It's the mean of all the data displayed in the plot.

 

3) The mean displayed in these graphs is just that: a mean for the totality of the data. No wonder it's flat: it's just a single value.

 

I hereby rescind my previous statement and go with what Mokele said: NOAA calculated the mean for all the data in the plot and plotted it as a straight line.

Edited July 22, 2009 by bascule
Consecutive posts merged.

[iNow]

Here are the rules:

 

1. Link the relevant post, providing a quote of something you said where you believe you were wrong
   
2. Provide information about what lead you to the conclusion that you're wrong, preferably with a link to another SFN member's post
   
3. Provide a statement of what you believe now and what lead you to that conclusion
   

Holy crap. I've admitted to being wrong lots of times on this site. I didn't have to admit it, but it was pretty clear that I was.

 

 

The one I remember most regarded aspirin. I told someone that it made headaches go away because it thinned the blood and reduced pressure in the skull. Boy... was I mistaken.

 

1) http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?p=355818

A headache is from lots of pressure in our skull. Your blood flowing through the brain influences this pressure. Aspirin thins the blood, hence the pressure is reduced, and your headache is relieved. I didn't go to med school either though.

 

 

2) It was Glider who came in and reminded me why I like his posts so much:

 

http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?p=355909#post355909

I didn't go to med school either though.

Evidently

 

Headaches are more often due to muscle tension around the shoulders, neck and scalp.

 

Aspirin inhibits certain parts of the clotting cascade (i.e. acts as an anticoagulant), but does not 'thin' the blood. Blood needs to be of a certain viscocity to perform its function.

 

'Thinning' the blood won't influence its pressure in an enclosed system anyway.

 

Aspirin is a COX inhibitor. Inhibiting cyclooxygenase reduces the production of prostoglandins and other substances associated with inflammation and so reduces pain.

 

 

3) I probably spent the next 2 hours googling and reading as much as I could about aspirin, COX inhibitors, and prostoglandins. I found all kinds of cool sites with graphics and really detailed explanations. I was somewhat embarrassed that I'd been so very wrong, and yet so confident in my tone when responding to that users question, so I focused that shame to try to ensure I never made the same mistake again.

 

 

 

There are loads of examples where I've posted something completely and totally wrong, and where I've admitted it. The example above was just the most memorable for me.

[ennui]

I've had a look but I couldn't find anything! Most of my posts are asking questions rather than stating facts