Backing off health care may be a mistake for Dems

[Pangloss]

Interesting op/ed piece in yesterday's Washington Post by noted health policy expert and Brown political science professor James Morone, suggesting that pulling back on some aspects of health care may be a costly political mistake for Democrats.

 

Many Democrats are moving to whittle back health reform in order to win over moderate, fence-sitting, frightened independents.

 

Big mistake.

 

Go back and look at the midterm tsunami that swept the Democrats out of office the last time. The turnout for that wave was just 36 percent. Moderate, fence sitting independents don't vote in midterm elections with a 36 percent turn out.

 

What really happened back in 1994? The Republican base - jubilant, mobilized, and angry - turned out. The Democratic base - dispirited, disenchanted, and demobilized - stayed home.

 

He seems to have a good point there. It feels presumptuous to add my own opinion here, but I do remember what it was like in 1994 and it does feel very similar at the moment. I think that's unfortunate because, as has been pointed out here already, so much of it is driven by misinformation and demagoguery. Why can't we make a choice based on intelligent analysis and good, hard common sense?

 

At any rate, the politics of this is really interesting, and seems to run counter to what my own thinking has been. I was of the general opinion that, from a purely political perspective, Democrats should compromise on this issue in order to maintain control over political moderates. But it's hard to argue with Dr. Morone's point here. You sometimes hear that politics is not about avoiding fights, but picking the right ones. This would seem to be a good example of that.

 

Morone also draws some interesting comparisons with the Medicare debate in the 1960s, and includes this fascinating quote from Ronald Reagan in 1963: "If this program passes, one of these days we will tell our children and our children's children what it was like in America when men were free." Reagan sure seemed to miss the mark on that one. Ouch!

 

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/shortstack/2009/08/why_the_health_care_debate_is.html?hpid=news-col-blog

[bascule]

I entirely agree. The Democrats need to get healthcare reform right, or it's going to be a political disaster for them. That may involve failing to reach out to those who would like to do it half assed.

[iNow]

I agree also. They have the power, and are (to a disturbing extent) showing their inability to do anything with it (if they fail with healthcare). Americans may like representatives who are "on their side" with issues, but they seem to put a higher priority on strength, leadership, and success... regardless of subject.

[Pangloss]

Americans may like representatives who are "on their side" with issues, but they seem to put a higher priority on strength, leadership, and success... regardless of subject.

 

Yes that's true. Unfortunately even if health care reform does everything hoped-for, it can't do it before the 2010 mid-term election, or even the 2012 presidential election. Which means that those vote will take place based on perceptions of what the health care plan might be accomplishing, rather than the reality we'll see years down the line. Not that that will stop either side from declaring it both a radical success and a miserable failure.

 

Success in other areas might have more impact, however. Usually it comes down to the economy and small-scale daily impact.

[CaptainPanic]

Backing down from one of the biggest issues of the political calendar? They're a bunch of cowards.

 

And anyway, it's not as if the republicans are gonna take it easy when they win one political victory. IMHO, the republican party has transformed from a political party into a gossip machine that throws mud at the democrats 24/7, regardless of the political issues of the day.

 

The tsunami of mud thrown at the democrats will keep coming anyway.

 

So, if you want to get some independent people to vote for you, at least show some backbone.

 

(I'm not saying that the democrats play it fair, but they do seem to address issues a little more objectively every now and then).

[bascule]

What's really sad is the Democrats are not seriously considering a single-payer system, which is the only system which will not only guarantee universal coverage, but will actually save money. Instead they are trying to push through a huge entitlement while we're still recovering from the financial crisis and amassing massive amounts of government debt.

 

Worse, I think Obama will try to stick by his campaign promise not to raise taxes on the middle class, which, short of a steep upper class tax hike, will mean that we won't have money to pay for the program.

 

The Democrats had a great opportunity here to both bring down healthcare costs while ensuring universal coverage, and they're blowing it. Perhaps there is something to the teabaggers' arguments after all.

 

If this fails, it will be a disaster for years to come, and will severely damage the Democrats credibility.