What did you expect to see by 2010 which isn't here yet?

[bascule]

Any ideas or technologies you thought would take off during the "naughties" that didn't?

 

Over ten years ago I heard of the idea of putting a hydrogen reformer into a car, using that to extract hydrogen from gasoline, and then running the resulting hydrogen through a fuel cell in order to produce electricity. This idea seemed great in that we could start with the existing gasoline infrastructure but start rolling out more efficient fuel cell cars. Brilliant!

 

Unfortunately, it would seem the technology never materialized. Wikipedia gives a list of reasons.

[ajb]

I expected that the second string revolution might have been able to provide (partial) answers to the following questions (maybe I was very very nieve)

 

1) How is supersymmetry broken?

2) Why is the cosmological constant so very small? (zero?)

3) Out of all the possible quantum mechanical solutions to M-theory, why was the one that describes our universe chosen?

4) Can phenomenological tests of string/M-theory be devised?

 

Other things that I hoped include the direct detection of gravitational waves and WIMPS.

[Genecks]

I expected to see a better transportation infrastructure in the United States.

It really did not happen to the degree I desire.

 

I think a better transportation system would have helped reduce the pressures of the oncoming economic recession.

Not every place in America has a metra, amtrak, subway, and/or elevated train for people to commute.

Many people in places continue to rely on buses to transport them to other locations.

 

It seems as though there was a larger influence on communication systems rather than transportation systems.

It is somewhat easier to figure out the bus times via the Internet.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Genecks

[bascule]

I too would like to see a better transportation infrastructure, particularly in regard to public transportation.

 

Our regional transportation service (RTD) does a fairly good job, particularly the light rail service in areas where it's operating. However, there have been substantial delays expanding the light rail service. The light rail expansion I thought would reach my hometown (and really need it to right now) has been repeatedly delayed. Originally slated for just two years in the future, it's now been pushed back to 2016 at the earliest. It was only a month ago that they finally secured ownership of the land they need to build the tracks.

 

Having traveled to Europe, the transportation situation in the US is really sad. I look at the rail services offered in countries like France and Switzerland and am amazed. A city not much larger than my own boasts a metro system with two subway lines, which makes transportation within the city incredibly easy. And for getting anywhere else in Switzerland, I can take the SBB, which is fast, convenient, and the cheapest way for a foreigner to get around. I looked into traveling across state via train in America a month or two ago. It would take 8 hours at a cost approximately equivalent to a 45 minute plane ride. WTF? America needs more trains like these, not the antiquated ones offered by Amtrak:

 

 

Unfortunately I don't have high hopes for the future of statewide and international rail services in America. I really hope we manage to expand them as they are desperately needed and I am glad Obama and Biden are both proponents, however it seems Americans would rather drive their cars than take trains. It's a chicken-and-egg problem. Amtrak is a joke so no one uses it, therefore Amtrak has no money to improve their service, therefore Amtrak remains a joke. America could really use a nationwide high speed rail service... then maybe it wouldn't be necessary to drive or fly everywhere to get around.

[Nikola]

I was hoping for an acceleration in the space program by now. A moon base would be nice instead of a rickety old space station.

[iNow]

I expected our implementation of nuclear, solar, wind, and other clean/green energy technologies to be a few factors of ten further along than we are. Not sure what I was thinking since our old TX governor was POTUS... with questionable legitimacy.

[AngryTurtle]

while back I expected the cold fusion ordeal to spark more interest in the prospect of fusion energy, I somewhat (if only hopefully) expected a reactor that yielded some net energy gain even if it was just a prototype in a university.

Haven't heard anything about one if it does exist.

 

I also expected more progress in the somewhat controversial field of stem cells and genetics in agriculture.

[insane_alien]

Angryturtle, we have exceeded the breack even point in fusion technology, but it was only just. ITER planns to do it with self sustaining plasma(can be run indefinitely) at a low net energy gain but be able to go higher (but not sustain it indefinitely).

 

after ITER has researched suitible materials for reactor linings then DEMO will come about and finialise the designs for commercial reactors.

[npts2020]

I am with Genecks and Bascule on the transportation front. It seems like a system that has 40,000 deaths and $200 billion+ every year in America would be worth a little attention, especially since we now have the technology to actually do something about it. The other thing that is disappointing to me is the lack of progress on making warfare between nations and/or societies and the profiteers associated with it obsolete.

[AngryTurtle]

The other thing that is disappointing to me is the lack of progress on making warfare between nations and/or societies and the profiteers associated with it obsolete.

 

I don't think this is an issue that can be solved by technology. Also if there is promise in fusion energy why do I never hear anything about it in the midst of a title wave of green technology propaganda? Seems odd seeing the massive potential in fusion.

[npts2020]

I don't think this is an issue that can be solved by technology. Also if there is promise in fusion energy why do I never hear anything about it in the midst of a title wave of green technology propaganda? Seems odd seeing the massive potential in fusion.

 

Obviously that issue won't be solved by technology. Technology has already solved it, only narrowly defined self interest of a relative few keep the issue from being resolved, hence my disappointment in progress. Also I am not sure what you mean by "green technology propaganda" but nobody has yet sustained a continuous fusion reaction at a level useful for power generation so building generation facilities seem like a few years away at best.

[DrP]

As a kid in the Eighties I hoped we would have had fusion sorted out by now. It promises to be the answer to all our energy problems if we get it mastered. I realised ages ago we wouldn't sort it out - not sure if we ever will before we destroy the world, but here's hoping...... boo hoo.

[Phi for All]

I also was hoping for high-speed maglev trains to be more prevalent in the US. I have a relative in Germany working with a system that raises the tracks 15 feet above ground so they don't intersect auto traffic. The trains can handle an 18 percent grade, they never derail, they can do over 300 mph, and the tracks are only energized on the sections the train is currently traveling over. There are no moving engine parts to wear out, the tracks can be placed alongside existing roadways and the only pollution they create themselves is the big whooooosh noise they make as they bullet by.

 

The main drawbacks are that it will destroy the commuter airline business and encourage less oil and gas consumption, which, as everyone knows, will completely destroy the economy.

[bascule]

I also was hoping for high-speed maglev trains to be more prevalent in the US.

 

I'd be happy with a train that runs between Denver and LA at >100MPH.

[Phi for All]

I'd be happy with a train that runs between Denver and LA at >100MPH.

One of the big problems with our current political system is that whenever a great new technology that deserves subsidization comes along, one of the entrenched technologies that we're still subsidizing uses their market superiority to make the new tech unappealing. Our economic system tends to favor profit over progress, but at least the market has other pressures on it that often encourage innovation.

[ajb]

Angryturtle, we have exceeded the breack even point in fusion technology, but it was only just. ITER planns to do it with self sustaining plasma(can be run indefinitely) at a low net energy gain but be able to go higher (but not sustain it indefinitely).

 

after ITER has researched suitible materials for reactor linings then DEMO will come about and finialise the designs for commercial reactors.

 

True, but I think that JET never lived up to it's original expectations in fusion technology. It has been a very successful venture in plasma technology and related things.

[timo]

Phi:

 

You get >100 miles per hour with standard trains (ICE or TGV) which actually are the competitor for the Transrapid (that's what you are talking about, right?). That's what seemed to be favored in Germany. I doubt that any oil companies or airline transportation had much to do with that.

 

I am no engineer or expert on Transrapid technology. But as so often: Qualitative statements like "the tracks are only energized on the sections the train is currently traveling over" don't help much. As soon as you plug in numbers the energy consumption can still exceed that of a train by any amount. In this case, I think the Transrapid energy consumption is higher but in the same order of magnitude as that of an ICE.

 

EDIT:

To bring that back to the topic: I think many ideas that sound great in theory are just not so great in practice. Things that come to my mind and which I had counted to expect them by 2010 had you asked me 20 years ago: Maglev trains, fusion and holographic crystals. All those ideas are old and we've been told they will soon be standard. None of them made it to real-world application. I am even somewhat surprised that people still expect to see them. Ok: no one still expects holographic crystals as standard for data storage considering that "could store a TERAbyte of data" doesn't leave people breathless anymore.

Edited January 3, 2010 by timo

[CaptainPanic]

I really expected we'd have conquered space by now. And we have, but not by manned flight, but by telescopes instead.

 

Also, I expected computers to be more *bling*. Instead, we have 16GB on a paper clip sized stick.

 

But most of all, I kinda expected that cars would be obsolete by now... or at least that cars would be replaced by something more advanced, traveling through tubes at high speed, or through the air. (Note: over 10 yrs ago I wasn't really much of an engineer yet - now I realize how much energy and infrastructure that would cost).

[JohnB]

The idea of high speed trains was pushed for a while in Oz. Until someone asked "What happens when a train at 300 kph hits a 250 kilo kangaroo?"

 

Short of armouring the train, the result would be disaster. The idea died.

[bascule]

"What happens when a train at 300 kph hits a 250 kilo kangaroo?"

 

Clearly the solution is to line the tracks with misters that emit a pheremone which is repulsive to kangaroos

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

Or speakers playing Tie Me Kangaroo Down, Sport:

 

_D-LmRNdQiQ

[Mr Skeptic]

The idea of high speed trains was pushed for a while in Oz. Until someone asked "What happens when a train at 300 kph hits a 250 kilo kangaroo?"

 

Short of armouring the train, the result would be disaster. The idea died.

 

Because armoring the front of the train would increase its weight by 0.01%?

[AngryTurtle]

modern cow catcher would solve that problem, I don't really see how bulking up the head of the train would really cause problems.

[bascule]

modern cow catcher would solve that problem, I don't really see how bulking up the head of the train would really cause problems.

 

Upon further inspection JohnB's statement seems a bit over-the-top:

 

"What happens when a train at 300 kph hits a 250 kilo kangaroo?"

 

250 kg kangaroo? Really?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kangaroo#Description

 

A large male can be 2 metres (6 ft 7 in) tall and weigh 90 kg (200 lb).

[jackson33]

To quote Dr.P, cute; "As a kid from" the 40's, I expected a lot of things that did not materialized, world piece probably the most important. Also from that period in time, I had hoped, we would have evidence of life from outside this planet and for some reason, in those days, I felt we would be able to control weather or enclose cities from outside weather effects.

 

Back to reality and in all honesty, all the things that have changed, in most part for the better, have been impressive. Thank goodness it's off topic, or I could spend a week on those changes...