Scientists Defend Tsunami Alarm

[Pangloss]

I guess this shouldn't be too surprising -- we see this here in Florida every time there's a hurricane warning that doesn't pan out into an actual strike (the next time there's always a larger number of folks who don't heed evacuation warnings), and I'm sure examples abound all around the planet. I guess what they're saying in this Telegraph article is that there's been some criticism (from who I'm not clear) about the tsunami alarm that was issued following the Chilean earthquake.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/chile/7342088/Chile-earthquake-scientists-defend-tsunami-false-alarm.html

 

Scientists have acknowledged that they overstated the threat from the tsunami triggered by the Chilean earthquake, but defended their actions, saying they took the proper steps and learned the lessons of the 2004 Indonesian tsunami that killed thousands of people who didn't get enough warning.

 

Well duh. I know it's an inconvenience to evacuate, but from what I've read it's very hard to precisely predict what size waves will result from an earthquake clear across the ocean (gee, ya think?). It's amazing to me that there's a detection and warning system in place at all -- surely a tribute to both science and peaceful cooperation between nations. Something to celebrate, not something to criticize. But I guess it's just human nature.

 

I thought this bit was interesting:

 

A similar quake in Chile in 1960 created a tsunami that killed about 140 people in Japan. The same surge hit Hawaii and devastated downtown Hilo, on the Big Island, killing 61 residents and wiping out more than 500 homes and businesses.

[Horza2002]

Typically, the media has little idea what actually goes into making predictions about anything. You can also bet your bottom dollar that if they had not issued a warning and there had been a major wave then the scientists would have been wrong again.

[Mr Skeptic]

It's a warning, not a known fact. "Cool and sunny, with 70% chance of being swept away by a giant ocean wave"

[Sisyphus]

They should implement a new system, whereby the people who complain only get notified when they're really sure.

[swansont]

[sarcasm]I guess this whole tsunami thing is a big hoax, then. Where's Glenn Beck's rant on this?[/sarcasm]

 

 

And in Japan, where authorities ordered 400,000 people out of coastal communities, the biggest wave was a 4-foot surge that hit the northern island of Hokkaido, flooding some piers.

 

A Japanese official offered an apology to those affected after the government had warned that

waves of up to 10 feet (three meters)

could hit some northern regions.

 

(emphasis added)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/quake_tsunami

 

When the prediction is for a wave up to x feet, and it comes in smaller, the prediction isn't wrong.

[Phi for All]

Who exactly is complaining? Those people should be tied to a post on the coastline the next time there is a warning. What a ridiculous criticism of a system we are lucky to have in the first place!

[john5746]

I have some sympathy for Floridians during a particularly bad hurricane season, but a Tsunami? I don't think they are going to be asked to evacuate once a month or anything.

[Sisyphus]

I'm just curious where a south Floridian is going to evacuate to. Pangloss? Have any tsunami contingency plans? A boat in the driveway, maybe?

[Rickdog]

In the Juan Fernandez Island, about 4:00 A.M. last Saturday morning a young girl (Miss Martina Maturana, 12 years old), who was there as a tourist was able to establish comunication with some of her family that lived in Concepción, Chile. and through that comunication she was told of what happened a few minutes earlier, where a devastating 8.8 earthquake hit them. So she took it as a matter of her own, and since she knew that in case of any emergengy, a local bell was suposed to be sounded in case of any emergency. since she didn`t know how many bells should be sounded, she rang it continuedly, waking up most of the people who lived there and told them that there was a "chance" that a big wave can arrive, so most of the villagers ran to highgrounds, only to see in a few minutes later, 3 huge waves destroy their whole village. They all thank this girl for their lifes now. 8 other villagers weren`t so lucky, and now are "missing".

 

Wether an advanced alarm is necessary or not, you should think about this little girls story. If she would have not sounded the bell, maybe the 600 or so villagers at "Bahía cumberland" the only village of Juan fernandez Island, could have died last Saturday.

 

What if she were wrong ?. maybe the whole village would have punished her, but since she wasn´t, they made her their heroe, for her wisdom.

Edited March 1, 2010 by Rickdog
Completion of former post

[John Cuthber]

Some people really don't realise when they are lucky.

 

Having said that, if there's a tsunami warning for where I live, I plan to ignore it.

Roughly 300 feet above sea level and 70 miles from the coast, if the warning is real then you are not going to be able to do a lot about it.

[Pangloss]

When the prediction is for a wave up to x feet, and it comes in smaller, the prediction isn't wrong.

 

Nice catch!

 

Although it seems to be consistent with Japanese political practice, doesn't it? It's always seemed to me that their sense of community transcends the western perception of apology as a sign of weakness and incompetence, so they may actually look at a statement like that and not think less of the scientists who made the prediction.

 

(But I'm no expert on Japanese politics.)

[CaptainPanic]

Getting angry at the scientists who gave a (not 100% guarantee but a) warning for a tsunami - and then not listening the next time...

 

I dunno, is that material for a mass-Darwin Award? I think so.

[Rickdog]

well, if you do care about warnings, we back here in Chile, recently (few minutes ago) had another 6 degree earth "movement" or aftershock, not as big as the one of last Saturday, but a rather long one.

[VedekPako]

We had full media coverage of the Tsunami and even maps of areas that might be affected by it.

 

 

The size of the Tsunami: 10 inches.

[Rickdog]

Well, if that Tsunami is 10 inches tall, but it also has the mass of a very big ocean, then you`re doomed, my friend. A Tsunami is not necessarily tall to produce damage, it is its mass the one that can kill you. In the recent event last Saturday we suffered, the most destructive and probably deadlyest part of it, was the Tsunami that affected our coasts, that came after the 8.8 of magnitud earthquake, and it was in most of the parts, only a couple of feet tall, that entered in the land with such speed and mass, that nothing was able to resist against it.

[Radical Edward]

Who exactly is complaining? Those people should be tied to a post on the coastline the next time there is a warning. What a ridiculous criticism of a system we are lucky to have in the first place!

 

exactly. They should implement a system where only the people who want to know about the warning get warned (an opt out system) This way the idiots that think they know better won't get a warning and they will stay on the beach if a tsunami hits. It would certainly breed out some stupidity.

[Phi for All]

exactly. They should implement a system where only the people who want to know about the warning get warned (an opt out system) This way the idiots that think they know better won't get a warning and they will stay on the beach if a tsunami hits. It would certainly breed out some stupidity.

The Darwin Warning System!

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

The Darwin Warning System!

 

"Natural selection is going to be unusually rapid this morning. Take cover."

[VedekPako]

Well, if that Tsunami is 10 inches tall, but it also has the mass of a very big ocean, then you`re doomed, my friend. A Tsunami is not necessarily tall to produce damage, it is its mass the one that can kill you. In the recent event last Saturday we suffered, the most destructive and probably deadlyest part of it, was the Tsunami that affected our coasts, that came after the 8.8 of magnitud earthquake, and it was in most of the parts, only a couple of feet tall, that entered in the land with such speed and mass, that nothing was able to resist against it.

 

It wasn't that bad.

[JohnB]

Darwinism in action.

 

"We've been warned a tsunami might hit the coast where we live. Let's go down to the beach and film it."

 

As Rickdog said, even a couple of feet with speed and mass behind it, they would have been gone. People think of them like a large surfer type wave, but watch the vids from SE Asia a few years ago, it's a tremendous surge.

 

Rickdog, my condolences for what has happened in your nation.

[Rickdog]

Not wanting to sound arrogant, but thank you very much JohnB, on behalf of my country, for your concern.

:-)

Edited March 8, 2010 by Rickdog
Redaction correction in the post