The Singularity

[lsparrish]

Technology is advancing at a pretty fair clip at the moment. One of the more dramatic examples is computer processing power, which doubles in speed per unit cost every year and a half.

 

Some people think that at some point, self-improving artificial intelligences will be invented. Alternately, or perhaps simultaneously, human minds will be emulated or "uploaded" in a way that lets them experience years of subjective time in just seconds of physical time.

 

These will be able to discover the answers to scientific questions much faster than we baseline humans are able to. Inventing new ways to make themselves faster, smarter, and more sophisticated will become possible.

 

From the perspective of physical time, this could be seen as a "singularity", an event which happens at an ever-increasing rate.

 

So the questions:

1. Is this a realistic scenario? Why or why not?
   
2. If it happens, what might the universe look like afterward?
   

[Mr Skeptic]

To some degree it is realistic. There are some limits to what can be done; exponential growth of any kind cannot continue indefinitely.

 

The universe would look largely the same. Earth would be drastically different though.

[lsparrish]

What limits are you referring to? Or are you saying this is a general rule? How do you know there are no exceptions in the physical universe? Do we have concrete reasons to assume it is not possible to create computers that calculate infinitely fast and take up an infinitesimal amount of volume?

 

I imagine the human universe (using the word metaphorically) is going to change drastically. But I agree that most of the astronomical universe wouldn't be affected very quickly due to the speed of light barrier. On the other hand, a few billion years later it could look very different. Interstellar colonization using very small ships (bullets?) accelerated near the speed of light would be more realistic than large colony ships.

 

Also, parts of the universe that are traveling away from us at high relativistic speeds might not ever be affected, or might take billions of (their) years to be affected.

 

If the singularity involves infinite progression inward -- smaller and smaller computing devices -- outward expansion into the universe might be brought to a halt by the fact that it is unnecessary. It might even be considered distracting or disruptive. Entities would be unable to communicate in real-time over vast distances. Increasing rates of subjective time could make this more and more of a problem.

 

Another direction it could take would be the simulation of new universes. Of course there would be crude virtual reality universes, but there could also be realistic large-scale physics simulations. A lot depends on where the actual limits of computation would be. If the limits are infinitely bounded, we could end up in charge of new Big Bang universes, or perhaps copies of the existing universe -- effectively giving us the ability to manipulate time and go faster than light (in the simulated universes).

[Mr Skeptic]

Well, lets say there's a limit to miniaturization. How about is we can have a single atom perform the function of one of today's supercomputers, but no better. Then, we are limited by the amount of material we can reach. Suppose we can travel at .99999 c, just a hair short of the speed of light. We own a sphere of the universe of radius .99999 c * t, where t is time. The volume of the sphere increases as the cube of the radius. However, a cubic increase will eventually be smaller than even the smallest exponential (larger than 1) increase. Expanding at the speed of light just isn't fast enough to maintain an exponential growth rate.

[ecoli]

we don't need to create the technology for a singularity if we can create self-improving FAI first.

[bascule]

Is this a realistic scenario? Why or why not?

 

I believe it's very much a realistic scenario, and one which may occur within our own lifetimes.

 

If it happens, what might the universe look like afterward?

 

Lots more planets than earth will be covered with intelligence