Why can’t we find bin-Laden and al-Zawahri?

[waitforufo]

So the Juan Williams firing got me wondering. Seeing how we all agree that the vast majority of Muslims are peaceful, fun loving, middle of the road, get along types, why is it so hard to find that Osama bin Laden guy or his best buddy Ayman al-Zawahri. I mean both those guys have to be an embarrassment to all but a tiny minority of Muslims. Right? They have to be somewhere, and at the somewhere they must be surrounded by Muslims. I have also heard plenty of Muslims claim that Al Qaeda acts completely contrary to the teachings of Islam. So how is it that cartoonist Molly Norris had to enter an FBI witness protection type program for suggesting a draw Mohammed day, but bin-Laden and al-Zawahri live peacefully surrounded by Muslims?

 

What am I missing?

[tomgwyther]

In short: finding Bin laden is irrelevant and long forgotten; much like finding WMD's in Iraq.

As for pictorial representations of the prophet Mohamed; it is forbidden in Muslim culture.

The Islamist movement of which Bin Laden was a part apparently see fit to use violence against such people who draw pictures of Mohamed..

[ydoaPs]

We know where Bin Laden is.

[waitforufo]

We know where Bin Laden is.

That’s just a general region. We need an address. We want to minimize the collateral damage. He must have good run of the mill, fun loving Muslim neighbors. So why is he living so comfortably in their neighborhood? Why haven’t they at least run him out?

 

In short: finding Bin laden is irrelevant and long forgotten; much like finding WMD's in Iraq.

As for pictorial representations of the prophet Mohamed; it is forbidden in Muslim culture.

The Islamist movement of which Bin Laden was a part apparently see fit to use violence against such people who draw pictures of Mohamed..

But I keep hearing from Muslims that the actions of Al Qaeda are also forbidden by Muslim culture. Also consider the proportion of the two situations. The threat against Molly Norris has forced this woman to give up her life. Our government has put this woman in hiding. Her life is in danger. There are people trying to kill her. For suggesting people draw a picture. Now without bin-Laden and al-Zawahri there is no Iraq war, no Afghanistan war, no predator drones over Pakistan, and Juan's not nervous and still has his job. Now on the flip side, all your typical Muslim has to do is drop a dime on bin-Laden or al-Zawahri and we put a hellfire missile through his window from a predator drone. These are men that all but a tiny minority of Muslims admit are evil. Right? You know, all those Muslims that Juan's not supposed to be worried about. Like I said, why is it so hard to find these two men.

Edited October 21, 2010 by waitforufo

[Pangloss]

So really this isn't about bin Laden, right? It's about the rift in the Muslim world community between extremism and peaceful conformity?

 

If so an adjustment to the thread subject line might be in order. I could add something to the sub-subject.

[Mr Skeptic]

Ok, Bin Laden is not a total retard, he knew that we'd be after him starting on 9/11, and he planned for that. What exactly he planned I can't say, but just to give an example: Store up 20 years worth of non-perishable food and water in some remote cave, and go hide there before 9/11 (since he himself isn't doing that part), and people can search for him all they want, they'd never find him. Doesn't have to be a cave, it could also be a remote enough wilderness, just that would be more risky. Done properly, it doesn't really matter who wants to find him, they won't. Of course he was a little less cowardly than that, but even communication is fairly safe so long as you have one trustworthy person who isn't under investigation.

 

So how could he be found, would you think? Do you think he's just sitting in some mosque somewhere and a bunch of muslims know where he is but just don't care for a million dollar reward?

[waitforufo]

So really this isn't about bin Laden, right? It's about the rift in the Muslim world community between extremism and peaceful conformity?

 

If so an adjustment to the thread subject line might be in order. I could add something to the sub-subject.

No it really is about finding bin Laden. But please, be my guest, add and adjust away. Im wondering however about this rift you mention. I rift seems to imply some sort of intentional isolation between the two groups. It seems to me that one group does evil and the other group passes the blame onto others (Israel, the US, the West, Juan). You know like saying it understandable that someone should be murdered for drawing a picture or encouraging others to do so. Not shunned or ostracized but murdered.

 

In a culture that cherishes their freedom of speech, even offensive speech, it seems odd that one cant even express fear of a culture that includes a tiny minority that not only condones such murder but has committed it. Even if that person expressing such fear publishes their opinions for a living. Particularly when the majority from that culture turns a blind eye to such murder. Perhaps those comments are best made on your Juan Williams topic.

 

But if there is a rift as you mention, why can't those for peaceful conformity put some effort into stopping those of extremism. Oh yea, because its the fault of others. How dare I suggest otherwise.

Edited October 22, 2010 by waitforufo

[padren]

That’s just a general region. We need an address. We want to minimize the collateral damage. He must have good run of the mill, fun loving Muslim neighbors. So why is he living so comfortably in their neighborhood? Why haven’t they at least run him out?

Consider the faces on this page, the FBI's top 10 most wanted:

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten

 

Aside from Bin Laden, you have a lot of other people who have had a lot of success avoiding capture within the US, and you could be sure they have good run of the mill, fun loving American neighbors. So why haven't these criminals been run out yet?

 

It's not a question of whether Americans tolerate hardened top-ten-list criminal behavior, it's a question of how good these people are at hiding and using networks consisting of that small percent of people who do sympathize that make it possible. Osama may be pretty famous and hard to miss if he goes to get vegetables in the town market, but he's not going to do that. Last I heard he was on dialysis and assume he still is (so clubbing is out), and where ever he is he'll have non-suspicious people who can do all the footwork for him.

 

There may very well be some communities where he can move about freely, but I doubt he would because even if it's true, anyone who wants to lay low knows that you can't even trust good neighbors that would happily die for you - people inexperienced in keeping life and death secrets cannot keep secrets for long, and certainly not amongst a population the size of even a small village. They will tip others off without even knowing it. They never know what innocent detail they mention will become dangerous when combined with an innocent detail mentioned by someone else.

 

As such, people who want to stay hidden don't depend on the sympathy of the masses, they depend on the ignorance of the masses.

 

There is no faith in your fellow man when your life is on the line.

 

 

Also, it's worth noting that he's not likely hiding among the more sophisticated urban populations, but small villages that still fear warlords and feudal authority. Most are consumed with maintaining what little they have, are terrified of loosing it, and do not want to invite turbulence into their region on a gamble of a rumor that the new fellows that get supplies are bringing them to Osama's hideout. You could drop a dime, but it's fair to say the US military is seen as a very blunt instrument in that part of the world, just as likely to kill your children as a terrorist in a drone attack. On top of that, if it really is Osama's people, then he probably has allies in the village who are powerful enough to slit your throat and that of your wife and children without reprisal.

 

More likely than not, the very idea that it could be Bin Laden hiding near your village would be both terrifying and seen as a burden, one you simply hope passes with evidence he's somewhere else, or evidence that he was right there and moved on. When people are fearful for their families and basic survival needs, they tend not to want to believe and especially not become involved in anything that could make life even more volatile.

 

 

Now, if he is in an urban area, it's even easier to hide in some respects. It's harder in terms of surveillance and I have seen no evidence (haven't looked) that he is accustomed to urban survival so I am skeptical he'd find it advantageous but if you can pay someone to smuggle drugs, you can pay someone to smuggle people - it's not like corrupt officials verify you have heroin and not a human. You can also live in a building in a very populated area and never leave, and no one on the street would ever know. In a part of the world where there is a good amount of organized crime (not just tied to terrorism) most people don't want to be involved, they don't want to look them in the eyes. They may suspect the person is hired muscle for a drug ring, or human traffickers selling drugged young girls overseas, and they may hate the idea of that, but still be afraid to look at them twice or get involved in any way. If there is only risks to getting involved most people will find a way to make the information fit not needing to be involved.

 

All in all it doesn't take a large percentage of loyal experienced people to be able to go entirely underground.

Edited October 22, 2010 by padren