Anura Posted December 7, 2010 Posted December 7, 2010 Just think of the technology needed. I don't think we will ever have the technology to be able to visit other planets revolving around even the closest stars. I think mankind will destroy itself before then. I believe this is probably the curse of intelligence; it will allow us to create technology we are not evolved enough to use responsibly. We have already done so, I believe, as I believe mankind is creating global warming. I believe this is the fate of all intelligent beings (not necessarily global warming, but self-destruction). I cannot support this possition, as it is untestable speculation, so don't ask me to. My question then is: So what makes anyone think aliens can visit us?
ajb Posted December 7, 2010 Posted December 7, 2010 Unless they are quite close and willing to spend thousands of years in flight, they could use some sort of space-time engineering. Making wormholes and similar. Then, that does bring all the troubles of time travel etc. We don't know much about quantum gravity in general. To me it may be plausible that a society that has understood quantum gravity could master it and engineer wormholes. But I am starting to sound like a quack now...
Spyman Posted December 7, 2010 Posted December 7, 2010 (edited) Just think of the technology needed. I don't think we will ever have the technology to be able to visit other planets revolving around even the closest stars. I think mankind will destroy itself before then. I believe this is probably the curse of intelligence; it will allow us to create technology we are not evolved enough to use responsibly. We have already done so, I believe, as I believe mankind is creating global warming. I believe this is the fate of all intelligent beings (not necessarily global warming, but self-destruction). I cannot support this possition, as it is untestable speculation, so don't ask me to. But I do belive that we will be able to travel between stars and survive despite our problems, I have faith in mankind and hope for the future. We are pretty fragile right now both to ourselves and to moder nature, since we are all stacked on one single planet, but as soon as we manage to colonize even one more planet we will be much safer against catastrophic failure and when we have habitats in three or four star systems then the human race will be more or less immortal. My question then is: So what makes anyone think aliens can visit us? Obviously people thinking that aliens can visit us also belives they can survive long enough. Edited December 7, 2010 by Spyman
Mr Skeptic Posted December 7, 2010 Posted December 7, 2010 What if said aliens have the social structure of the social insects (ants/bees), where self-interest worse than the interest of the hive? An intelligent species with that social structure wouldn't do many of the things we do out of personal self-interest. Of course, if ants had nuclear weapons, they'd have nuked the earth several times over, but I still think it would be easier for a few hives to act in their self-interest than that many more individuals.
michel123456 Posted December 7, 2010 Posted December 7, 2010 So what makes anyone think aliens can visit us? Most of them don't think at all.
Incendia Posted December 7, 2010 Posted December 7, 2010 ...It's unlikely...people often forget that we see the stars in the state they looked like millions of years ago. We only see habitable planets millions of years ago. Any aliens from the planet we see as a ball of lava sees us as a ball of lava. Also we don't scan the sky at all frequencies so aliens might us frequencies different to the ones we use...in other words...we can't see them and they can't see us.
Spyman Posted December 8, 2010 Posted December 8, 2010 So what makes anyone think aliens can visit us? Most of them don't think at all. Would you mind extending on that statement? Because if you claim that most people, considering a possibility that our huge Universe could accommodate extraterrestrial intelligent lifeforms which just like us could develop a techology to travel through space between stars, "don't think at all", then you seem to be the one with insufficient thoughts.
rigney Posted December 8, 2010 Posted December 8, 2010 Would you mind extending on that statement? Because if you claim that most people, considering a possibility that our huge Universe could accommodate extraterrestrial intelligent lifeforms which just like us could develop a techology to travel through space between stars, "don't think at all", then you seem to be the one with insufficient thoughts. While the prospects of going to other star systems seem slim at the moment, if SETI ever gets a plausible signal from somewhere out there, it will give us good reason to keep trying.
Edtharan Posted December 8, 2010 Posted December 8, 2010 So what makes anyone think aliens can visit us? It might be that a species will go through several near extinctions, or nearly every inteligent species will cause itself to go extinct. However, if just 1 species makes it, then they will be able to inhabit a galaxy almost devoid of any species that could be a threat to them (as nearly any species able to be a threat would destroy themselves first). This would mean that they have the entire galaxy to themsevles and so would dominate it (in terms of population, not necesarily in a military sense). Also, if we can survive for even just 100 more years, we will likely have the technology to achieve the level of development needed to start this. Eariler this year, I saw a TED talk about how they had simulated an entire neurocortical column of a human brain. If we apply More's Law to this, then by around 2030 they will be able to simulate the entire human brain, at which point, computers would be at least as sophisticated as us. These computers could be launched at a slow speed (faster than modern rockets, but achievable with current technology if we were so inclined to do so and had the funding). These slow boat robotic (or simulated human brain) machines could easily travel between stars and have a fleet of remote, robotic devices to explore the other star systems. Why I gave a time frame of 100 years is that we would need to develop the manufacturing technologies to build these ships and in a way that they could self repair and replicate (see this as a step to that end: http://reprap.org/wiki/Main_Page ). I doubt these ships would be sent to land on planets, but would instead gather material from the outer parts of the star system (in the oort cloud or kuiper belt equivelents), only occasionally sending probes to explore the inner solar system. As the "mind" in these ships would be just data, when these ships replicate they could just upload a copy of their own minds into the new ship, thus the numbers of these ships would be almost unlimited. As they would also be inteligent (and may even become more inteligent as they go on simply by adding to themselves). They would also be virtually immortal as age would not be a factor and they would have extensive self repair capabilities (see: reprap link above). Planetary colonisation, I think, will only exist for a short time in any technological species lifetime, as information technology is essential to sophisticated technology, thus any species with the technolgoy to effectivly visit other star systems will quickly develop the ability to simulate their minds in a computer, thus no longer being tied to biological limitations. Once a species gets to this point, it becomes very hard to actually destroy them completely. they are no longer tied to a scarcity economy, they are no longer subject to biological limitations, they can reproduce from a single source and they are not tied to a single location (star system). They would be a bit like bacteria. Although higly mobile, inteligent, communicating bacteria.
rigney Posted December 8, 2010 Posted December 8, 2010 It might be that a species will go through several near extinctions, or nearly every inteligent species will cause itself to go extinct. However, if just 1 species makes it, then they will be able to inhabit a galaxy almost devoid of any species that could be a threat to them (as nearly any species able to be a threat would destroy themselves first). This would mean that they have the entire galaxy to themsevles and so would dominate it (in terms of population, not necesarily in a military sense). Also, if we can survive for even just 100 more years, we will likely have the technology to achieve the level of development needed to start this. Eariler this year, I saw a TED talk about how they had simulated an entire neurocortical column of a human brain. If we apply More's Law to this, then by around 2030 they will be able to simulate the entire human brain, at which point, computers would be at least as sophisticated as us. These computers could be launched at a slow speed (faster than modern rockets, but achievable with current technology if we were so inclined to do so and had the funding). These slow boat robotic (or simulated human brain) machines could easily travel between stars and have a fleet of remote, robotic devices to explore the other star systems. Why I gave a time frame of 100 years is that we would need to develop the manufacturing technologies to build these ships and in a way that they could self repair and replicate (see this as a step to that end: http://reprap.org/wiki/Main_Page ). I doubt these ships would be sent to land on planets, but would instead gather material from the outer parts of the star system (in the oort cloud or kuiper belt equivelents), only occasionally sending probes to explore the inner solar system. As the "mind" in these ships would be just data, when these ships replicate they could just upload a copy of their own minds into the new ship, thus the numbers of these ships would be almost unlimited. As they would also be inteligent (and may even become more inteligent as they go on simply by adding to themselves). They would also be virtually immortal as age would not be a factor and they would have extensive self repair capabilities (see: reprap link above). Planetary colonisation, I think, will only exist for a short time in any technological species lifetime, as information technology is essential to sophisticated technology, thus any species with the technolgoy to effectivly visit other star systems will quickly develop the ability to simulate their minds in a computer, thus no longer being tied to biological limitations. Once a species gets to this point, it becomes very hard to actually destroy them completely. they are no longer tied to a scarcity economy, they are no longer subject to biological limitations, they can reproduce from a single source and they are not tied to a single location (star system). They would be a bit like bacteria. Although higly mobile, inteligent, communicating bacteria. "ipso facto"! The men (scientists) paraphrasing this topic makes even an ignorant ass like me feel pretty good about himself. Don't think I want to buy into it! http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ancient-aliens-series/
Incendia Posted December 8, 2010 Posted December 8, 2010 While the prospects of going to other star systems seem slim at the moment, if SETI ever gets a plausible signal from somewhere out there, it will give us good reason to keep trying. What you are forgetting is Doppler shift...The signals the SETI searches for it won't find for millions of years...I explained this in my last post here.
rigney Posted December 8, 2010 Posted December 8, 2010 What you are forgetting is Doppler shift...The signals the SETI searches for it won't find for millions of years...I explained this in my last post here. Not to my antiquated ways of thinking. I'm just old enough to believe that the speed of light, like us; has limitations. It would be amazing if we could travel to another solar system in our own galaxy during this lifetime. Impossible? I don't know. But, we had best find a more efficient way of doing it.
Spyman Posted December 9, 2010 Posted December 9, 2010 (edited) While the prospects of going to other star systems seem slim at the moment, if SETI ever gets a plausible signal from somewhere out there, it will give us good reason to keep trying. The discovery of signals from another civilization will undoubtly be an excellent and exciting find and to actually make contact would likely bring a huge advantage and exchange of knowledge to both of our races, but as I said in my post #3 - the main goal and ultimate reason to become spacefaring and colonize other Stellar systems is to secure the survival of mankind. ...It's unlikely...people often forget that we see the stars in the state they looked like millions of years ago. We only see habitable planets millions of years ago. Any aliens from the planet we see as a ball of lava sees us as a ball of lava. Also we don't scan the sky at all frequencies so aliens might us frequencies different to the ones we use...in other words...we can't see them and they can't see us. What you are forgetting is Doppler shift...The signals the SETI searches for it won't find for millions of years...I explained this in my last post here. The Milky Way galaxy that our Sun and we happen to be a part of have a diameter of 100 000 lightyears and a thickness of 1000 lightyears and it contains about 100-400 billion of stars that is located closer than 1 million lightyears and without any cosmological doppler shift. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_way Our closest neighbourhood, inside the Milky Way, within a distance of 16 lightyears from our Solar system contains 51 Stellar systems with a total of 62 hydrogen-burning stars and 7 brown dwarfs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_stars Gliese 581 is located at roughly 20 lightyears distant from Earth and have several confirmed planets and "the planet with the greatest likelihood of having conditions suitable for liquid water at its surface found to date". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_581 While communicating with another civilization at such a distance, when the signals would take several years to reach the receiver and then another several years before we get the reply, would be hard but it is still very far from impossible and totally achievable even within the lifetime for humans. Making a journey there would take much longer time and is currently outside of our technological abilities, so it could be debatable for the sole purpose of a 'social visit'. Hoping for a very close neighbour might be to much but the possibility for another intelligent race within the Milky Way doesn't seem to be unreasonable and while communicating with someone on the other side seems futile, we would at least be able to exchange signals and recognize each other. Edited December 9, 2010 by Spyman
Edtharan Posted December 9, 2010 Posted December 9, 2010 "ipso facto"! The men (scientists) paraphrasing this topic makes even an ignorant ass like me feel pretty good about himself. Don't think I want to buy into it! http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ancient-aliens-series/ Actually it is about exponential growth. Any self-reproducing system is capable of exponential growth, especially if there is no pressure to keep them from reproducing. If, as was argued, that inteligent organisms are likely to be self destructive, all it would take is just 1 not to be self destructive, or at least not self destructive before they achieve a level of technology (and only certain technologies) about 100 years from where we are today (in other words, we are so close, it does seem that it could be at least possible). If just 1 of these aliens ever existed (or does exist), then they would have the entire galaxy to themselves (as it was argued that other inteligent aliens would destroy themselves which would leave no one else to contest their growth). As there is far more resources in asteroid belts, kuiper belts and Oort coulds than on planets, these colonisers would rarely interact with developing aliens (unless they wanted to or the developing aliens developed to the point they became coloniser types) and that further give them room to expand uncontested. The exponential growth means that they could easily colonise a galaxy in a fairly short amount of time, and the fact that they are no longer confined to one star system means that very little in the way of natrual disasters could wipe them out (and any that occured in a small area would wipe out their competition in that area too). By dropping biology, they can make their "bodies" much more durable, and the technology needed to get them to the point where they can begin to colonise the galaxy means that they will very likely have the technology to get rid of their biology. It is all down to exponential growth. If 1 alien species is able to not destroy themselves before developing the technology to travel to other star systems, then exponential growth means that they will expand to encompass the galaxy.
rigney Posted December 9, 2010 Posted December 9, 2010 (edited) Actually it is about exponential growth. Any self-reproducing system is capable of exponential growth, especially if there is no pressure to keep them from reproducing. If, as was argued, that inteligent organisms are likely to be self destructive, all it would take is just 1 not to be self destructive, or at least not self destructive before they achieve a level of technology (and only certain technologies) about 100 years from where we are today (in other words, we are so close, it does seem that it could be at least possible). If just 1 of these aliens ever existed (or does exist), then they would have the entire galaxy to themselves (as it was argued that other inteligent aliens would destroy themselves which would leave no one else to contest their growth). As there is far more resources in asteroid belts, kuiper belts and Oort coulds than on planets, these colonisers would rarely interact with developing aliens (unless they wanted to or the developing aliens developed to the point they became coloniser types) and that further give them room to expand uncontested. The exponential growth means that they could easily colonise a galaxy in a fairly short amount of time, and the fact that they are no longer confined to one star system means that very little in the way of natrual disasters could wipe them out (and any that occured in a small area would wipe out their competition in that area too). By dropping biology, they can make their "bodies" much more durable, and the technology needed to get them to the point where they can begin to colonise the galaxy means that they will very likely have the technology to get rid of their biology. It is all down to exponential growth. If 1 alien species is able to not destroy themselves before developing the technology to travel to other star systems, then exponential growth means that they will expand to encompass the galaxy. If we ever find that light isn't the ultimate in speed, then practically any and everything is possible. Down through the ages some pretty smart civilizations have done incredible feats. Like the pyramids in Egypt, the Yucatan, Peru and the huge monoliths on Easter Island, even our calendars. Some modern medecines have been rediscovered from ancient formulas. But aliens from another solar system paying us a visit? I seriously doubt it. I can't say it isn't possible, but even the thought is too big for me. And Gods, we invent them almost daily. The Halebop fiasco was such a tragedy. Can you imagine supposidly sane, sophisticated and intelligent people carrying out such insanity? Even the thought is scary. While this planet is perhaps 4.5 billion years old, Humans have just arrived. I hope though that even a part of your philosophy is right. Edited December 9, 2010 by rigney
Moontanman Posted December 10, 2010 Posted December 10, 2010 Just think of the technology needed. I don't think we will ever have the technology to be able to visit other planets revolving around even the closest stars. I think mankind will destroy itself before then. I believe this is probably the curse of intelligence; it will allow us to create technology we are not evolved enough to use responsibly. We have already done so, I believe, as I believe mankind is creating global warming. I believe this is the fate of all intelligent beings (not necessarily global warming, but self-destruction). I cannot support this possition, as it is untestable speculation, so don't ask me to. My question then is: So what makes anyone think aliens can visit us? We already have the technology to visit another star, if we put the money and effort to space travel that we do to war we could at the very least launch slow boats (generational) to the stars... Right now space travel comes close to being the least important thing we do in the eyes of the people who dole out the money for research. All we need it money and determination, both of which we are sorely lacking...
Widdekind Posted December 10, 2010 Posted December 10, 2010 (edited) The technology required, to cross the colossal Cosmos we happen to inhabit, would be, by far, beyond the best presently produceable, upon this planet. To wit, such technology would be "Hyper-Tek". And, according to Isaac Asimov, "any technology sufficiently advanced, is indistinguishable from magic". Doctor John Mack, and Physicists Carl Sagan, Seth Shostak, Terence Dickenson, all emphatically emphasize, that such "Hyper-Tek", maybe millions of years more modern than Mankind in the present period, would be wondrous & god-like. To wit, the "hurdle is so high", to project power & presence, across this colossal Cosmos, wherein inter-galactic distances are measured in millions & billions of light-years, that by the time any advanced aliens could do so ("smart something else's, somewhere else"), those aliens would be hyper-advanced ("super-smart something else's, somewhere else"). In sum, by the time aliens could contact Earth, their contact would make itself manifest in Magical Miracles, Signs of Sorcery, & Works of Wonder (even as advanced human technology would mystify the minds of monkeys, many millions of years more primitive than people). Thus, to quote Carl Sagan, "to us, they would be gods". Actual alien contact, would be Hyper-Alien Hyper-Contact; and, their projection of power & presence, upon this planet, would be with Works of Wonder, Signs of Sorcery, & Miracles of Magic. To wit, by very definition, of those aliens, being, by far, superior to anything upon this planet at present... actual alien contact, being Hyper-Alien Hyper-Contact... would appear Super-Natural. So, in-so-far, as no humans actually believe, in the Super-Natural, Supra-Terrestrial, Supra-Planetary presence of projected power upon this planet (at present), then all humans can confidently conclude, that no Hyper-Aliens have Hyper-Contacted humanity (to date). Edited December 10, 2010 by Widdekind
Moontanman Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 The technology required, to cross the colossal Cosmos we happen to inhabit, would be, by far, beyond the best presently produceable, upon this planet. To wit, such technology would be "Hyper-Tek". And, according to Isaac Asimov, "any technology sufficiently advanced, is indistinguishable from magic". Doctor John Mack, and Physicists Carl Sagan, Seth Shostak, Terence Dickenson, all emphatically emphasize, that such "Hyper-Tek", maybe millions of years more modern than Mankind in the present period, would be wondrous & god-like. To wit, the "hurdle is so high", to project power & presence, across this colossal Cosmos, wherein inter-galactic distances are measured in millions & billions of light-years, that by the time any advanced aliens could do so ("smart something else's, somewhere else"), those aliens would be hyper-advanced ("super-smart something else's, somewhere else"). In sum, by the time aliens could contact Earth, their contact would make itself manifest in Magical Miracles, Signs of Sorcery, & Works of Wonder (even as advanced human technology would mystify the minds of monkeys, many millions of years more primitive than people). Thus, to quote Carl Sagan, "to us, they would be gods". Actual alien contact, would be Hyper-Alien Hyper-Contact; and, their projection of power & presence, upon this planet, would be with Works of Wonder, Signs of Sorcery, & Miracles of Magic. To wit, by very definition, of those aliens, being, by far, superior to anything upon this planet at present... actual alien contact, being Hyper-Alien Hyper-Contact... would appear Super-Natural. So, in-so-far, as no humans actually believe, in the Super-Natural, Supra-Terrestrial, Supra-Planetary presence of projected power upon this planet (at present), then all humans can confidently conclude, that no Hyper-Aliens have Hyper-Contacted humanity (to date). Widdekind, why must there be magical almost supernatural technology before we travel to the stars? Current technology allows for slow boats to the stars. They would have to be multi-generational but we could do it. I envision a huge torus, 100 kilometers across, 25 kilometers thick, rotating for artificial gravity, huge open spaces and an ecology on the inside surface with large underground cities many thousands of people could live in this slow boat for hundreds of years. No Star Trek Tech is necessary.
Widdekind Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 (edited) Thanks for your questions (1) What nation on Earth could, right now, construct such a 'slow-boat' Super-Ship ? Mankind cannot do it at present -- there is a difference, between what can be envisioned, and what can actually be implemented. What you have shown, is that such a Super-Ship is not "inconceivable to the minds of Mankind"... not that it can be built at present. To paraphrase Shakespeare, "the reach exceeds the grasp". And, imagine that you need to cross the galaxy, or even inter-galactic space ? Such "Space Hyper-Missions", lasting thousands, or even millions of years, are far beyond modern Mankind today. How would you repair the ship, from a million years of accumulated damage ?? And, what if the target system / world was inhabited by advanced technological hostiles ? What weapons would you load-out that (as yet speculative) Super-Ship ? (2) If we did, as you suggested, and landed upon a planet, upon which we could land, w/ said suggested Super-Ship... to wit, a world inhabited, at 'most', by pre-technological higher animals... then, as Carl Sagan said, "to us they would be... brutes". Carl Sagan's exact words were, "to us, they'd be gods, or brutes", b/c technology, once sparked, develops rapidly. That is my ultimate position & point -- there are two ways Mankind could come into Contact with aliens: by being the active, Space-Faring "Super-Species", encountering "(comparative) primitives" [humans = gods to them] by being passive recipients, upon Earth, of "Wonder-Craft" Hyper-Influence, of (comparatively) Hyper-Advanced Hyper-Aliens [humans = brutes to them] So, ultimately, I'm not really disagreeing with you -- either "we'd be the gods", or "they'd be the gods", but, since technology develops so much more rapidly than biological evolution, whoever became "technological" first, would be the active agent in Contact, and would be the "Wonder-Gods" to all the "brutes" they encountered. (3) For the record, I do predict, that the current SETI search is, to be blunt, "embarrassingly ill-conceived". For, either they'd be gods to us, in which case their "means of manifesting", an "effective presence", upon this planet, would be god-like and way beyond radar; or, we'd be the gods, and we won't directly detect the presence of "the primitives", even when we touch down on their worlds, since alien "microbe-oids" and "pre-tek animal-oids" would not be sending any signals, of any kind, anywhere near as advanced as radar. Again, the key concept is time-scales -- technology obeys "Moore's Laws", and "doubles in power" rapidly, over time scales of years or decades... whereas it took millions of years for human IQs to "double in power". Thus, whoever became technological first would be "God-like" to whomever they came into Contact with (unless there was some "Cosmic-fluke", and two separate species, in separate star-systems, evolving in different environments & conditions, happened to "go technological", at exactly the same time -- which possibility seems highly unlikely). Edited December 11, 2010 by Widdekind
gnarledreaper Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 I have personally witnessed one of these http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_triangle_%28UFO%29 while stargazing in a field during my younger years, not under the influence of any drug or alcohol, so are aliens visiting or have they at least done so in the past?, i believe so. The one i saw was luminous blue, moved very slowly and rotated as it moved.
JohnB Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 Widdekind, you are coming to conclusions from very limited information and unproven assumptions. Any observations and conclusions based on Earth history is drawing conclusions from a dataset of 1. Similarly, extrapolating the long term future development of technology from a measly 60 year baseline is fraught with danger. Moores Law is not a Law, but an observation about technological advancement on Earth, specifically computer technology. If you can produce some logical reason that it should apply to non human technological development, I'd love to hear it. You also appear to assume that the only possibilites are "slow boat" or real time Intergalactic hyper fast. There is no reason to make that assumption. If a mode of transport were found that was FTL but not hyper speed then things become different. Suppose for example a drive system that allows a ship to log a light year per day. Alpha Centauri is only 4 days away, but the other end of the Galaxy is 273 odd years. There are many systems within 200 LY of Earth but travel time to and from is 6 months. Governing such a society would entail the same problems as the Empires had governing colonies in the 17th through 19th centuries. (I'm sure our American members can tell us how ell that worked out. ) The possibility exists for a medium speed transport system and all the problems that this entails. Similarly there is no logical reason to assume that any life found elsewhere will be either "Gods" or "Mindless Beasts". We make this assumption because of the speed of human technological advancement, but why should others progress at the same speed? Is it not possible for a society to take 10,000 years from the invention of the steam engine to spaceflight? If not, why not? Note also that we are extremely lucky in having a good sized moon and a plantary system of nine. (I know Pluto got downgraded but I don't care.) We get to experiment by the process of sub-orbital -> orbital -> Lunar -> interplanetary -> interstellar. Someone without a moon would have to make the jump from orbital straight to interplanetary and if they were the only planet (probably unlikely) straight from orbital to interstellar. With all the confounding factors (and I can name plenty more) to attempt any definitive statement of what technological levels aliens must have is the height of absurdity. For examples of how things might have happened, both for aliens and for us I recommend; "Inherit the Stars" trilogy by James P. Hogan "Code of the Lifemaker" by James P. Hogan. The "Worldwar" and "Colonisation" series by Harry Turtledove. The "TerroHuman Future Histories" of H. Beam Piper.
rigney Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 Widdekind, you are coming to conclusions from very limited information and unproven assumptions. Any observations and conclusions based on Earth history is drawing conclusions from a dataset of 1. Similarly, extrapolating the long term future development of technology from a measly 60 year baseline is fraught with danger. Moores Law is not a Law, but an observation about technological advancement on Earth, specifically computer technology. If you can produce some logical reason that it should apply to non human technological development, I'd love to hear it. You also appear to assume that the only possibilites are "slow boat" or real time Intergalactic hyper fast. There is no reason to make that assumption. If a mode of transport were found that was FTL but not hyper speed then things become different. Suppose for example a drive system that allows a ship to log a light year per day. Alpha Centauri is only 4 days away, but the other end of the Galaxy is 273 odd years. There are many systems within 200 LY of Earth but travel time to and from is 6 months. Governing such a society would entail the same problems as the Empires had governing colonies in the 17th through 19th centuries. (I'm sure our American members can tell us how ell that worked out. ) The possibility exists for a medium speed transport system and all the problems that this entails. Similarly there is no logical reason to assume that any life found elsewhere will be either "Gods" or "Mindless Beasts". We make this assumption because of the speed of human technological advancement, but why should others progress at the same speed? Is it not possible for a society to take 10,000 years from the invention of the steam engine to spaceflight? If not, why not? Note also that we are extremely lucky in having a good sized moon and a plantary system of nine. (I know Pluto got downgraded but I don't care.) We get to experiment by the process of sub-orbital -> orbital -> Lunar -> interplanetary -> interstellar. Someone without a moon would have to make the jump from orbital straight to interplanetary and if they were the only planet (probably unlikely) straight from orbital to interstellar. With all the confounding factors (and I can name plenty more) to attempt any definitive statement of what technological levels aliens must have is the height of absurdity. For examples of how things might have happened, both for aliens and for us I recommend; "Inherit the Stars" trilogy by James P. Hogan "Code of the Lifemaker" by James P. Hogan. The "Worldwar" and "Colonisation" series by Harry Turtledove. The "TerroHuman Future Histories" of H. Beam Piper. I'm totally lost JohnB. I was doing ok until you spoke of traveling the length of a light year in one day. Would that not be more than ultra hyper fast? If light from Alpa Cantauri under normal conditions takes 4.+ light years to reach us, wouldn't what you suggest be just 4 days short of: Instantaneous Telportation?(
JohnB Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 (edited) Sorry Rigney. I was referring to the idea that the only options are "slow boat" taking generations to reach the nearest star or "hyper fast" where intergalactic travel is only days or months. To be sure, logging a LY per day is still very fast but you will never get to Andromeda at that sort of speed, not unless you have a spare 5,500 years or so. You could colonize the Galaxy at those "relatively" low speeds but you could never have a cohesive galactic civilization. If your capital was in the centre of the Galaxy it would take nearly 140 years for news from the periphery to reach the centre. Basically I think restricting the options to "known tech" or "God like" tech is simplistic and unreasonable. A tech that allowed FTL travel in some sort of hyperspace would not appear Godlike to us, but would still be much faster than the "slow boat" generation ships. Even instantaneous "Stargate" travel with seconds between Galaxies wouldn't classify as "Godlike" any more. Rather than bowing down to worship them we'd be asking "How did you do that?" That is not to say that we might not find ourselves in situations this (From Babylon 5); Catherine Sakai: Ambassador! While I was out there, I saw something. What was it? G'Kar: [points to a flower with a bug crawling on it] What is this? Catherine Sakai: An ant. G'Kar: Ant. Catherine Sakai: So much gets shipped up from Earth on commercial transports it's hard to keep them out. G'Kar: Yes, I have just picked it up on the tip of my glove. If I put it down again, and it asks another ant, "what was that?",[laughs] how would it explain? There are things in the universe billions of years older than either of our races. They're vast, timeless, and if they're aware of us at all, it is as little more than ants, and we have as much chance of communicating with them as an ant has with us. We know, we've tried, and we've learned that we can either stay out from underfoot or be stepped on. Catherine Sakai: That's it? That's all you know? G'Kar: Yes, they are a mystery. And I am both terrified and reassured to know that there are still wonders in the universe, that we have not yet explained everything. Whatever they are, Miss Sakai, they walk near Sigma 957, and they must walk there alone. Edited December 11, 2010 by JohnB
rigney Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 (edited) Sorry Rigney. I was referring to the idea that the only options are "slow boat" taking generations to reach the nearest star or "hyper fast" where intergalactic travel is only days or months. To be sure, logging a LY per day is still very fast but you will never get to Andromeda at that sort of speed, not unless you have a spare 5,500 years or so. You could colonize the Galaxy at those "relatively" low speeds but you could never have a cohesive galactic civilization. If your capital was in the centre of the Galaxy it would take nearly 140 years for news from the periphery to reach the centre. Basically I think restricting the options to "known tech" or "God like" tech is simplistic and unreasonable. A tech that allowed FTL travel in some sort of hyperspace would not appear Godlike to us, but would still be much faster than the "slow boat" generation ships. Shortly after coming on the forum, I got my butt in a sling for using "Instantaneous Transcendental Teleportation". Don't know where I first heard the phrase, but that would be the way to go. From here to the other side of the universe in less than a heart beat. As weird as it sounds, we have just peeled the cover from space exploration. Who knows what's in store for the future? Edited December 11, 2010 by rigney
JohnB Posted December 11, 2010 Posted December 11, 2010 (edited) Yah. I think that there might be a world of difference between what "The Laws of Physics" say and what "The Laws of Physics as we currently understand them" say. Edited December 11, 2010 by JohnB 1
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