When will our oil supply run out?

[Mr Rayon]

Does anyone know when the world's oil supply will run out? In what year will there be no more oil?

[cypress]

New sources of crude oil and natural gas are found to replace the consumed reserves so that there is no current information that would allow for a prediction in the foreseeable future. Here is a link to data compiled by BP on world reserves and consumption.

 

Current recoverable reserves are sufficient for about 40 years assuming no change in consumption and no new finds. Neither of these assumptions are good assumptions of course but it provides some information about current reserve volume.

[lemur]

I think you have to consider the role that scarcity plays in setting prices. As a good/resource becomes more scarce, its price tends to increase while relative abundance tends to make the price go down. So as oil gets more scarce, its higher price will cause alternatives to become a relatively better value. This in turn should cause demand for oil to decrease and the rate of consumption will decrease accordingly. As a result, it is unlikely that the oil reserves will ever run out completely. They will just get consumed at a decreasing rate until there's practically no use for oil anymore because alternatives have taken the place of oil in most applications.

[JohnB]

There is also the point that as the price goes up, marginal fields become economical, increasing supply. (a bit)

[lemur]

There is also the point that as the price goes up, marginal fields become economical, increasing supply. (a bit)

True, but you start running into opportunity costs. This was shown very clearly by the move toward biofuel, where it was recognized that using corn to power vehicles would quickly drive up the price of corn and thereby meat and a number of other food products. At some point, I suspect that high energy-consumption will simply evolve into a luxury privilege for a shrinking elite (to the extent that it isn't already).

[Mr Skeptic]

Well, have a look at this website:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3810

 

 

There's a few things to look at there, the most significant of which I think is the black one. That one is the energy return on energy investment without factoring in dry holes. The green line shows we're getting much better at avoiding dry holes. The red line factors in both the black and green ones, but it can't do any better than the black line. If the black line gets too close to 1, then oil becomes useless as an energy source.

 

Another one:

Again note the drop as time progresses. We won't ever actually run out of oil, it just won't be worth digging up eventually. I don't know when though.

[lemur]

I like the bubble graphic but I'm not sure I'm able to read it exactly. I wish it was somehow possible to show the effects of different forms of conservation in terms of joules per unit utility or something like that. Zone heating, for example, reduces joules per degree indoor temperature by constraining the volume heated. Warm clothing is even more effective in that it maximizes body-heat utilization (why radiate heat from your body into the air when you can utilize it for warmth? Transit/mobility/shipping is also relative to the function of each trip. Geographical consolidation could vastly reduce the amount of joules-per-trip. Currently it seems like fossil-fuel is still burnt for the effect of celebrating wealth/prosperity the way fountains are used to showcase water-abundance. If fuel-use was done very strategically, I think it would be possible to get a lot more utility out of each joule. Maybe the slogan for energy consumption should be, "Every joule is a jewel."

[Mr Rayon]

What are likely to be the consequences in the Middle-East oil exporting countries when oil does run out (or to the point where alternative energy sources will become cheaper)?

I think they rely on oil a little too much, but still a good source to combat poverty in the region.