Dean Mullen Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 I have published a topic about how the odds of me existing is unlikely but here is two more mathematical probability reasons to doubt one life: Before I was born I was nothing, I was not I, I did not exist So relative to nothing there is no time so on that basis the odds of me coming into consciousness was not for just one particular time until it happened yet if I am supposedly alive just once then the odds of now being the time I am alive taken that time did not exist before I was born relative to me as I did not exist the odds of 2011 being the time I am alive versus all the other years on the universes time-line is in the billions/1 or another way of putting it is the odds of me being alive now in 2011 is in the billions/1 either way the odds of me existing once is in the billions/1 of course that statement varies on is now certainly now or could now be 1995 based on the fact the universe could have been born a few years earlier, I am not sure which is true but either way the odds of me being alive once is in the billions/1 another way of putting it is, if life is a once off thing then why against the odds that once be now when there is billions of possibilities and if it was not now I would not be alive but I am. An analogy would be, a man runs through a forest and all the wildforrest represents not being alive and the tallest tree represents the rare experience of life and against all the odds in 2011 he is at the tree when there was billions of other years he could have found the tree because he had no idea where this tree was, yet against all the odds in 2011 he is at the tree. Also if the time of the universe is eternal then the odds of me being alive now is infinity/1
insane_alien Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 because you're basing this on flawed assumptions and improper understanding of statistics?
Blahah Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 (edited) If the universe exists for infinite time, an infinite number of combinations of matter can occur. Every combination which is possible will occur, including you. So you're not special (I'm not being cruel, I'm not special either). It's great that you're thinking about all this stuff, but don't you think you should keep it all to one thread? You are exploring essentially the same issues in all your posts, and it would be easier for people to guide you to where science can help your thinking if you kept it all together in one place. I was going to give you a nice big explanation of the anthropic principle and how to apply it to your current trains of thought, but I'm not sure which thread to put it in. Edited February 14, 2011 by Blahah
John Cuthber Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 For all practical purposes, the probability of Dean existing is 1 i.e. 100 %. We are pretty much certain he's real.
Dean Mullen Posted February 14, 2011 Author Posted February 14, 2011 For all practical purposes, the probability of Dean existing is 1 i.e. 100 %. We are pretty much certain he's real. I think you got it completely wrong on what I said there, the odds of me existing are 100%? but if you went back in time and changed one event then I wouldn't exist and just because now I am 100% chance of existing I referring to before I exist and this is not what I am stating in this post I was talking about that in the other post I am just saying that the odds of me living just once is unlikely, understand?
PhDwannabe Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 This is one of the classic misapplications of probability. (This is kind of a philosophy of stats issue, here, and there's by no means a perfectly clear answer.) In short, probability is meaningful in reference to future or unknown events. It's not sensible when applied to past events whose existence is known. So, I'm going to throw ten nickels in the air a few minutes from now. What are my chances of getting ten heads? 1 in 2^10. About .1% of the times I'll do this in the future, I'll get those ten heads. However, just yesterday I threw ten pennies in the air and they all landed heads. What was the "probability that this happened?" 1. (Assuming, of course, I'm not lying to you, which of course, for pedagogical purposes, I am.)
Gozonji Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 INFINITY IS NOT A NUMBER, IT IS A CONCEPT YOU CANNOT PERFORM BINARY OPERATIONS ON CONCEPTS ......sorry, just had to get that out.......
swansont Posted February 14, 2011 Posted February 14, 2011 ! Moderator Note One thread on this is quite enough http://www.scienceforums.net/topic/54723-mathematical-probability-suggests-eternal-life/
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