China -- the next superpower?

[1veedo]

Well I don't agree that the Chinese are more free than Americans. Just try and have more than two babies, for example. That problem has been somewhat overblown in the west -- for most Chinese it's not a problem, and they agree with it being best for the country. But it's still a restriction on freedom. They don't have a free press, their Internet is censored, and they stomped on the SARS epidemic faster than you can say "Chernobyl-like cover-up".

I thought they had free press. And their internet is censored?

It's also important to keep in perspective that even though they have 300 million citizens in their middle class, enjoying a decent standard of living, good pay, a car, etc, they still have roughly a BILLION citizens who do not.

 

What's a little intimidating about this whole picture is the idea of a Chinese superpower with 1.3 *billion* middle-class citizens.

Yeah, I guess you’re right. That’s probably because some of the country that’s inland is in more of a ‘village’ scene and therefore make far less. I have a neighbor that went to China on business and seems to believe that Chinese live better, or at least in the cities. China has some problems, but its not as bad as other communist countries.

[Pangloss]

I thought they had free press. And their internet is censored?

 

Sure, there are stories in the news every few weeks about what Internet content is or will be allowed within China. There was just a story in the news a month ago about Google giving in to Chinese demands of censorship with regard to searches originating from within the mainland.

 

Here's a good (and fairly objective) opinion piece by Chris Nolan at eWeek about it, including links to related news stories.

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1675961,00.asp

[Aardvark]

Just out of curiousity, why do any of you think China is communist when it isn't?

 

It used to be, but it certainly isn't now.

 

Also, since independence India has not had any famines. Despite freedoms not being curbed.

 

Freedoms have been curbed in China, and estimates are of around 20 million Chinese dead of famine in the 1960's. Better an Indian green revolution than a cultural revolution.

[Pangloss]

Um... Because they say it is?

 

The government of China is run by the Chinese Communist Party. That is the party's actual name (albeit presumably something I can't type in Chinese). They've been the ruling party in China since 1949.

 

This was confirmed in 2002 when Zemin stated that the country would continue to be a communist dictatorship (in so many words, no less -- although I think he actually called it a "democratic dictatorship", whatever that might be -- this is the kind of thing we're talking about when we say that the Chinese really don't care much what outsiders think).

[Aardvark]

Because they say it is?

 

Does it occur to you they might be lying?

 

China is a dictatorship, run by a party that calls itself communist, but its policies and behaviour are not communist.

 

Other than calling themselves communist can you see any attribute of modern China that is in anyway communist?

[Pangloss]

I was simply responding to your question. If you wish to make an opinion statement, fine, but you can knock off the straw-manning and the insulting demeanor. I'm not responsible for the status of China's government.

[Woxor]

That's the whole point -- no countries in the world are or have ever been communist if you hold them to anything beyond their word.

[Aardvark]

There is no strawmanning in my posts, i'm querying why people persist in calling the Chinese regime communist when it has no communist attributes. I made an opinion statement and a query. That's not insulting anyone.

 

And i'm not implying you are responsible for the state of China's government. What on earth gave you that idea?

[Pangloss]

If they said they were an anarcho-simunist commune, taking it in turns to wield supreme executive power because a moistened bint lobbed a scimitar at them, would it make them any less of a super power?

[Aardvark]

Whilst it's true no country can be considered to have been purely of completely communist some have made some serious efforts. Cuba and the USSR made major ideological commitments to communism. China also did, under Mao communism was taken seriously, now China has simply dumped the whole idea, just keeping the name.

[Pangloss]

Okay, they're faux communists.

 

How does that make them more or less likely to become the next superpower?

 

How does this matter to the average Joe in Beijing?

 

In short, how does this affect the price of tea in China?

[Aardvark]

'If they said they were an anarcho-simunist commune, taking it in turns to wield supreme executive power because a moistened bint lobbed a scimitar at them, would it make them any less of a super power?'

 

Whether China becomes a superpower depends very much on its type of government, which makes it important to understand what the reality is not just the label.

[Aardvark]

It matters a lot to the average Joe in Bejing whether he is ruled by communists, or democrats or by a corrupt nationalistic despotism.

 

Isnt that obvious?

[Pangloss]

Whether China becomes a superpower depends very much on its type of government, which makes it important to understand what the reality is not just the label.

 

In what way does their lying about what kind of government they have affect their economic potential?

 

Or, in what way does out mistaken belief that it's actually a communist system affect our ability to deal with China? Bearing in mind that it's highly unlikely that anybody in the State Department is operating on any false assumptions, such as those you've (mistakenly) attributed to me?

[Pangloss]

It matters a lot to the average Joe in Bejing whether he is ruled by communists, or democrats or by a corrupt nationalistic despotism.

 

Isnt that obvious?

 

Is it? I'm not sure the average Chinese citizen actually cares. Isn't that more or less the cornerstone of communist-party (sic) control of China for the last 55 years -- lack of interest by the citzenry in changing it?

 

Isn't that why they've now become so successful? They're giving their people what they want -- televisions and automobiles. Isn't this a perfect example of opiates for the masses?

 

If what you say is true, that they care, then do you believe that they're heading for a fall, as their people become more educated and worldly, as we've seen before? If that's what you think, you may ultimately be right, but I'll be happy to take the counterpoint on it. I think their culture may be so fundamentally different from the western point of view that they may NOT ultimately rebel.

[Aardvark]

What assumptions have i attributed to you? I dont see any attribution of assumptions in my posts at all.

 

And it does matter what the nature of the beast is. If we presume to have opinions about China's development it seems axiomatic that we try to understand China's economic and political system.

 

If China is ruled by an corrupt elite with only a fig leaf of ideolical justification then it may be more likely to resort to militiristic nationalism to maintain support, look at its behaviour over the Spratly island group for instance. It may also inhibit peaceful resolution of differences with Taiwan. Such an elite would also be wary of democracy in Hong Kong spreading into the mainland, also affecting economic and socail development.

 

The effects on economic potential from politics are immense.

[Aardvark]

'I think their culture may be so fundamentally different from the western point of view that they may NOT ultimately rebel.'

 

Look at Hong Kong, look at Taiwan. When Chinese people get the chance they do a fine job of running a democracy. To say Chinese culture is incompatable with democracy is therefore wrong.

[Aardvark]

To say the Chinese people dont care is a disgusting insult to the brave Chinese dissidents who endure persecution, labour camps, exile and executions.

 

Opiates of the people, if that is the case why does China need slave labour camps? Why did the PLA have to kill thousands of protesters in Beijing. Contented people dont normally need machine gunning to keep under control.

[Pangloss]

To say Chinese culture is incompatable with democracy is therefore wrong.

 

I didn't say that. Straw-manning, second offense.

 

 

To say the Chinese people dont care is a disgusting insult to the brave Chinese dissidents who endure persecution, labour camps, exile and executions.

 

I didn't say that either. Straw-manning, third offense.

 

What I questioned was whether they care enough to affect change. And that is a reasonable question given their millenias-long history of compliance and cultural trait of comformity. For every tank-stopping dissident there've been tens of thousands of Chinese who either did nothing or actively supported their society. And there are not 300 million Chinese middle-class citizens who seem pretty damned content with the way things are.

 

I don't know whether those cultural traits will ultimately prove more powerful than the desire to have democracy.

 

And neither do you.

 

 

Opiates of the people, if that is the case why does China need slave labour camps? Why did the PLA have to kill thousands of protesters in Beijing. Contented people dont normally need machine gunning to keep under control.

 

Straw-manning, fourth offense.

 

Have fun storming the castle. I'm done here.

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

http://www.ucs.mun.ca/~alatus/2801/StrawMan.html

[Aardvark]

Wow, you can't even count. It goes One, two, three, not Two, three, four.

 

1) You state that you think their culture traits are of conformity and compliance.

 

( which shows an interesting ignorance of Chinese history with its long record of countless rebellions, revolts, changes of governments. Maybe you shold go and actually find something out about a topic before spouting ill informed opionions.)

 

2) You say you are not sure that the average Chinese actually cares.

 

If that is so why does the Chinese government need censorship, secret police and slave labour camps? Why did it need to machine gun thousands of its own people in Beijing?

 

3) I repeat the question in point 2) a vailid question and not strawmanning.

 

 

300 million content middle classes? A figure you've just invented? According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences the figure of middle classes is less than 200 million. But who cares about 100 million ficticious pretty darn contented people.

 

If you are done here i hope it's to actually check your facts and then make postings on things you actually have some knowledge about.

[Sayonara]

Wow, you can't even count. It goes One, two, three, not Two, three, four.

"One" was in post #31 and referred to post #30.

[Aardvark]

Since there was no 'strawmanning' in post 30 i missed that reference.

[YT2095]

That's the whole point -- no countries in the world are or have ever been communist if you hold them to anything beyond their word.

that`s actualy a true point, even "Communist Russia" way back then wasn`t TRUE communism as outlined by Karl Marx.

True Communism is actualy closer to "Democracy" than many may think.

the only example of True Communistic soscieties would be along the line of the Isreali Kibutz setup. or that Hippy Commune Villiage in Wales somewhere (although they`re consided Anarchists or Dropouts) by some.

[Aardvark]

We can take it as read that no country has ever achieved 'true' communism, but countries like the USSR did make major efforts to try and achieve it. In contrast China has completely abandoned any effort whatsoever to build communism.

 

A pretty big distinction.

[JohnB]

We can take it as read that no country has ever achieved 'true' communism, but countries like the USSR did make major efforts to try and achieve it.

And they did it so well that they had to build a great big wall to stop all the Westerners flooding into the USSR. If the path to "true" Communism requires that you kill anyone who tries to leave (NB, they tried to leave, not rebel.) then you have to ask if the destination is really worth it.

 

Do you actually know anybody that lived under that system? I would think not if you any words of praise for that degenerate, debilitating and inhumane system. The sheer viciousness of the USSR's system is almost impossible for a westerner to believe. But I know the people, I have seen the scars, I have heard their stories. I believe.

 

As to China. If it does become a "Superpower", and it already is from some points of view, it's life will be short, and it's end disasterous. The Communist Party has sown the seeds of destruction and it is now far too late to stop it.

 

Consider the implications of these two facts.

1. China has a one child policy.

2. Male children are viewed as more valuable than females.

 

These two things have resulted in only about 15% of babies being female. The vast majority of Chinese men will now never marry or have children. In about 40 years, the death rate will so outstrip the birth rate that the nation will suffer economic collapse.

 

China has a middle class of 300 million? So what? Only 45 million of them will marry and have children. One child. 300 million this generation, 45 million the next. Social and economic collapse.

 

One way or another Communism = Failure.