economics verses reality

[Athena]

Cicero is perhaps the best known Roman statesman. He defended the democracy of Rome and I love quoting him. However, he seriously failed to understanding economic reality, and so are we. Many Romans lost their land while they were off fighting wars for Rome, and they could not get jobs, because wars gave Rome plenty of slaves who were doing all the work. Rome shifted from a citizen military to a paid military, increasing what the government had to pay for war. We shifted from slaves to electricity and machines replacing the need for human labor, and never adjusted our economy to reflect this changed reality. We switched to a technological military force that needs your money more than it needs your sons, and citizens have lost control of this military force and its cost.

 

Finally, Rome exhausted its supply of gold, and compensated for this by cutting coins with cheaper metals, devaluing their money and causing inflation. We shifted from backing our money with gold to silver, to backing it with our gross national product. GNP is a count of how many times a dollar a changes hands, so we can shift into a service economy and not really notice a difference. However, there comes a time when lack of industry means, those services can no longer be supported, and the result is growing unemployment. We tried to cover the lack of real income with credit and the shit has hit the fan. Our gross national wealth is sudden a lot less than it was. The dollar stops changing hands, so the GNP falls and the cost of credit goes up. This is kind of like a person suffering dehydration. If a seriously dehydrated person drinks a lot of water s/he will vomit it, because they body is too stressed to handle the water. This is a very difficult period that takes time, and because we have exhausted more than our supply of oil, I am not sure we can recover. Sending our industry around the world, was not good for our citizens who need jobs. Using our military to defend our economic interest, is not good for the citizens who have to pay for this, and no longer have high paying industrial jobs, even if they can not read or write, because factory jobs didn't always require 3 college degrees and five years of related work experience.

 

You know what made King Solomon so great? I am sure Christians believe it was God. A more practical person might say it was his mines. The rise and fall of kings, empires, nations is based on mineral wealth. It is not enough to have mineral wealth, but it is also necessary to have the technology necessary for extracting the minerals from the earth, and a technological use for the minerals. It is this technological fact that separated the US from the former USSR. These two nations are unique in the world, because of the variety and amount of their mineral wealth they both had. The US advanced the technology to take advantage of the mineral wealth and the USSR did not. Now before you all start cheering for the superiority of the US, get this. The US has exploited its mineral resources and spent its wealth, and now is in big trouble. Instead of being the worlds supplier, it is now the worlds biggest consumer, but now lack of wealth is preventing the US from being the consuming that is essential to keeping this economy going, and all nations that depend on this economy are going down. Now what is the best way to deal with this reality? Tax the rich? Boost consumer confidence? God I hate how the media present the problem.

Edited August 12, 2011 by Athena

[Essay]

The US has exploited its mineral resources and spent its wealth, and now is in big trouble.

...

Now what is the best way to deal with this reality?

 

We need to find a new commodity; something that has a recognizable value, and that has enough volume to sustain a growth spiral.

 

...and this should be a tangible commodity, not more loans or derivatives....

 

imho (and based upon analogies to chemical, biological, and physical systems).

~

[Realitycheck]

What made King Solomon great was his ability to turn the other cheek, to have the wisdom to know the difference between what he could change and what he couldn't. On the other hand, he could be construed as a selfish, apathetic bastard. It's kind of hard to know for sure, but I'm not holding anything against him.

I really have a hard time being critical over such a thing as natural resources. It was going to happen sooner or later anyway. We really didn't want to be burning oil anyway, right? We still have an entire planet to mine through for everything else, and a moon, and asteroids. I would venture to say that our problems lie in our tendency to choke ourselves, shooting ourselves in the foot. Restricting stem cell research because of supersticous reasons so we're second place in the healthcare field. Overextending ourselves being the world's cop, wreaking havoc on fragile markets (talking about Iraq, NOT Afghanistan). Living beyond our means running up a credit card, devaluing ourselves in the process, assets less greater and greater liabilities. Who is paying us to fix the world? I guess all of that collateral damage was a bit too expensive in light of our desire to assert our will. We just need to focus on ourselves, like Solomon, arguably.

Edited August 12, 2011 by Realitycheck

[Greg Boyles]

We need to find a new commodity; something that has a recognizable value, and that has enough volume to sustain a growth spiral.

 

...and this should be a tangible commodity, not more loans or derivatives....

 

imho (and based upon analogies to chemical, biological, and physical systems).

~

 

 

How about we abandon growth economics and pursue steady state economics. We have no choice anyway because we live on finite planet with finite resources.

[Essay]

How about we abandon growth economics and pursue steady state economics. We have no choice anyway because we live on finite planet with finite resources.

 

Yes, in biology there is Growth & Development. We've grown enough and reached adolescence, so now it is time to start developing or maturing-- reorganizing, oriented toward new priorities.

 

...as a rough analogy.

 

~

 

p.s. ...but I suppose the term "growth spiral" is worrying. We need that capacity, but it also needs to be managed so that it is sustainable ("sustain a growth spiral"); as in... achieving enough power reach escape velocity and leave orbit, but managing it well enough to sustain a stable orbit... if that is what you mean by "steady state." To me "steady state" would describe the current cycling between boom and bust, but that's just one connotation.

[Greg Boyles]

Yes, in biology there is Growth & Development. We've grown enough and reached adolescence, so now it is time to start developing or maturing-- reorganizing, oriented toward new priorities.

 

...as a rough analogy.

 

~

 

p.s. ...but I suppose the term "growth spiral" is worrying. We need that capacity, but it also needs to be managed so that it is sustainable ("sustain a growth spiral"); as in... achieving enough power reach escape velocity and leave orbit, but managing it well enough to sustain a stable orbit... if that is what you mean by "steady state." To me "steady state" would describe the current cycling between boom and bust, but that's just one connotation.

 

Most people can grasp the constraints to growth when considering bacteria in a test tube of the small island nation of Naru.

 

But few can when it comes to the USA or the globe.

 

I think Dr Albert Bartlett from the University of Colarado has hit the nail on the head when he describes most of science uneducated humanity being inumerate when it comes to large numbers and large scales.

[Athena]

We need to find a new commodity; something that has a recognizable value, and that has enough volume to sustain a growth spiral.

 

...and this should be a tangible commodity, not more loans or derivatives....

 

imho (and based upon analogies to chemical, biological, and physical systems).

~

 

 

That sounds good, but.... we have plastic right and our coins are made out of something other than the minerals that once gave them value. Point being, what can we make that could not be made anywhere else in the world? Mineral wealth has value, because mother nature made it in limited qualities. So your gold ring has much more value then a plastic ring. Rome was interested in the British Isles because of its mineral wealth. The US became wealthy because of its mineral wealth. Japan would be hurting if it could not important minerals, such as steal and rare earth, because it does not have its own mineral wealth, and would not have a bases for its industry if it could not important the minerals it needs. How do I say? A nation's wealth is built on its mineral resources, and our substitutes will never equal that kind of wealth, because if we can make it, anyone can make it, so it isn't limited like minerals from the earth and will never have the value of minerals. It will have the value of plastic. Of course oil is finite and it is essential to plastic, so when we really realize the end of this resource, plastic won't be so cheap either.

 

Remember we used copper for pennies, and now copper isn't that easy to come by, and is too expensive to use in pennies. Whatever, they are making pennies out of these days, if you bury one in fall and dig up in the Spring, it will be so eroded you might not even be able to be sure it is a penny.

 

Essay you like to write about our soil and food supply. Here is a reality check for everyone. Perhaps this link should go in the thread about the limits of growth?

http://dieoff.org/page40.htm By the time my granddaughter is 50 years old, we could be realizing mass starvation. We will need all the food we can produce, but won't be able to loose the $40 billion for food exports. China needs our food and we owe China, so what do think will happen? If we want to be sure our grandchildren eat, this is the time to plan for that.

Edited August 13, 2011 by Athena