Technological Singularity vs Zoological History

[chromosomekid]

Hi,

 

The acceleration in technological development has so far been most successfully conveyed to the general public by Ray Kurzweil - especially in his 2005 book 'The singularity is near.' I have began a blog that presents a novel viewpoint. One that weaves different historical threads into a coherent picture. Please check out my first blog post and then reply to this forum

 

www.zoologicalhistory.blogspot.com

 

For my first post, I demonstrated that there are many points in history, that fall onto a trajectory with accelerative growth in complexity starting around 550 million years ago with the emergence of a centralized nervous system. The most recent communication revolution on this trajectory is the World Wide Web and the next one is due around 2043 - around the same date that Ray Kurzweil has suggested, an event he has termed, the technological singularity will occur.

 

Tanny

Edited August 20, 2011 by chromosomekid

[Realitycheck]

Is that when Skynet will become self-aware?

Edited August 20, 2011 by Realitycheck

[chromosomekid]

Ha Ha Lmao

 

I think even skynet is not as fantastical as what has been proposed with the technological singularity. This viewpoint has had lots of mainstream coverage including the BBC if i remember corrrectly and has even mentioned in an episode of the Big Bang Theory. My interpretation is far more sober but hopefully just as utopian. Although the viewpoint i put forward is original; almost all statements can be quickly checked for accuracy on the web, although a proper analysis may require a quick read of a few journal articles here and there.

 

It is very late so i am going to bed but if you have any further questions please reply again.

 

Tanny

[Realitycheck]

The Technological Singularity is a very interesting concept.

Edited August 20, 2011 by Realitycheck

[Essay]

http://en.wikipedia....cal_singularity

 

Impact:

Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. This new agricultural economy began to double every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligences causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.

. . .

 

Presumably, a technological singularity would lead to rapid development of a Kardashev Type I civilization, where a Kardashev Type I civilization is one that has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II of its planetary system, and Type III of its galaxy.

. . .

 

...leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history".(Kurzweil 2001)

 

Seriously!?

"...one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis."

Well, so much for all that "certainty" that the free-marketers are clamouring for.

 

"...leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history".(Kurzweil 2001)"

Is this meant to sound like a good thing?

 

"Presumably, a technological singularity would lead to rapid development of a... Type I civilization ...one that has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet."

I hope this means that a technological singularity will enable a humanitarian singularity.

That sounds like a more sensible, practical perspective on the singularity's value.

 

~

[chromosomekid]

Hi Essay,

 

From a purely economic viewpoint it does not seem that we are still on the same accelerative trajectory today as that of the recent past. The current worldwide economic downturn makes this quite evident. One may argue on such grounds that accelerative growth ended some time ago - perhaps in the 1960's??? My analysis though forces us to, at the very least, extend the period for which humantiy has been experiencing accelerative growth until the advent of the world wide web. If that is we agree to measure this acceleration purely in terms of communication. I think on that basis accelerative growth is still occurring and will extend to the 2040's. Although, I am willing to concede that perhaps in hindsight we may one day look back and see the highpoint at some earlier date than that. So why is it that Star Trek and other Science Fiction futures seem far off or unrealistic. Well in my blog i explain that inbetween major communication revolutions there is a shift in economic organization (more accurately there is an ecological revolution). The last shift happened during the industrial revolution. Essentially all the technologies we have today, including computing devices, trace their ancestry to the period between 1772 and 1914. The extrapolations that science fiction writers have made were based on this process being taken to higher levels e.g. solar system and beyond. Whereas what actually happens, from a historical viewpoint, is that humans shift economic mode when one system has exhausted its potential. I think we are very close to reaching that point. But when the next mode arrive - I speculate in my first blog post it may involve ubiquitous computing and fluid human-computer interfaces - the process of advancement begins anew.

 

p.s. I hope like you that we become more humanitarian as we progress towards the 2040's matching the explosive rate of information sharing that will occur. I believe this will be the case being an optimist.

 

Tanny