Peak Child, and Peak Population

[CaptainPanic]

Hans Rosling explains that we have recently reached "peak child": the number of children born per year, in an absolute sense, is at its peak. (Unlike "peak oil", it is not inevitable that it will go down though).

He also explains why all predictions correctly say that we will get at least another 3 billion more people on our planet, despite this peak child. It is likely that we will max out at 10 billion people, due to the "Great Fill-Up".

 

Please watch the video before discussing. All 13 minutes are well worth your time. I know that the title of the video is the relation between religion and the number of children born... but (spoiler alert) he concludes that there is no relation. So, let's leave religion out of this discussion.

 

 

The most important message is that it is inevitable that we will get 2-3 billion more people. And we'd better start preparing for those people today.

 

Any thoughts?

[ecoli]

I'm honestly more concerned about what happens when the growth rate slows down. Either way, the only long term solution I see if to get off planet or upload.

[iNow]

He presents data in a very accessible and understandable way, and the logic of his position is sound. My immediate response is that, 1) we as a species do a poor job of adequate planning for inevitable futures (see: climate change, human impact on), and 2) the ability to get those remaining countries out of poverty is at risk given the recession/depression issues we're facing. In fact, it might be argued that some countries will revert back (at least temporarily) to a higher birth rate while income levels recede.

 

Overall though, we need to do a vastly better job of preparing for the ten billion, and humanity needs to evolve quickly to a point where we prioritize longer term needs over immediate term gratification... and that doesn't strike me as terribly likely to happen by choice... Only by necessity.

[Airbrush]

".....we need to do a vastly better job of preparing for the ten billion, and humanity needs to evolve quickly to a point where we prioritize longer term needs over immediate term gratification... and that doesn't strike me as terribly likely to happen by choice... Only by necessity.

 

All governments of the world will become more authoritarian as Earth reaches carrying capacity. Like China, there will be only one child allowed per couple. This will happen within 50 years from now. The more people there are, and the less resources, all point to less liberty. Get prepared.

Edited June 11, 2012 by Airbrush

[John Cuthber]

Well, here's one possible idea for a solution.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18391663

[iNow]

All governments of the world will become more authoritarian as Earth reaches carrying capacity. Like China, there will be only one child allowed per couple. This will happen within 50 years from now.

Based on your reply, I shall assume you did not bother to watch the video in the OP.

[Airbrush]

Based on your reply, I shall assume you did not bother to watch the video in the OP.

 

I'm at work. I can only spend a few minutes here at a time, and my work computer has no speakers. I will try to see the video at home, if I can remember.

[robheus]

What comes to my mind in adressing this issue is that what needs to be done is:

* Fighting poverty is most important, because birth rates are very much related to poverty.

* We should work harder to create a more sustainable economy (away from usage of fossil fuels and nuclear)

* Living space can be created in places which are currently quite empty, like deserts. They have great potential for solar energy at prices already comparable to fossil energy, and CSP solar installations can convert salt water into drinking water from the excess heat.