Asteroid impact predicted in 2029

[Kedas]

more data just means a more accurate prediction of its path, and right now that data is saying it will almost definetely miss Earth; the 'old data' was discovered archived data from other observations

 

I know that but saying 'what is the chance that the chance is right' isn't that a bit of a 'wrong' question.

[Ophiolite]

I posted this on another forum, but thought it might be of interest here.If it did hit how big would the crater be?

The general equation governing crater size is:

 

D=k.E^n

 

Where D= crater diameter, k is a constant, E is the energy of impact, and n is a dimensionless number.

[This site describes an experiment you can conduct to determine the values of k and n: http://helios.astro.lsa.umich.edu/C.../cr_short.html]

 

The energy of the impact is given by

E=1/2.m.v^2

Where E=energy in joules, m=mass in kg, v = velocity in m/sec

 

[because the orbit of 2004N4 is fairly well established we have a good fix on the velocity. The mass is more difficult to determine. It depends upon the average density and total volume. The 1600 megaton figure for impact energy quoted on the NASA site is based on a density of 2.6g/cc (which assumes a typical chondritic composition with little or no iron-nickel) and a diameter of about 400m. The latter is based on assumptions about the albedo - how much light is reflected by the object.)

 

This useful link contains Gene Shoemaker's version of the general equation:

http://www.madsci.org/posts/archive...45968.As.r.html

 

The key equation becomes:

D = Sg Sp Kn W^(1/3.4)

Where Sg is a gravitational correction factor (1.0 for Earth impacts), and Sp is a density correction factor for the target material.

 

Plugging the values for 2004MN4 into the equation gives us a diameter of 4.6 kms, if I haven't dropped a decimal place.

[YT2095]

probably a simplistic question, but how would that effect ALL of us?

I can see how those underneath it would get squashed and those around buried, and shock waves destroying buildings for much further around.

 

but on a Global scale?

[5614]

well some say a meteroite killed all the dinosaurs... it didnt hit the earth and everything died... some say dust raised from the impact blocked out the sun.

 

bigger crater size means more damage, more debris, more shocks, more chance of it hitting straight through a volanoe and opening a permament hole in the earth.

[YT2095]

well I`ve heard of this "Dust" thing, in relation to Nuclear Winters etc...

 

I`m curious as to how long it lasts, how cold it gets, and survivability of MAN or A Man?

[[Tycho?]]

probably a simplistic question' date=' but how would that effect ALL of us?

I can see how those underneath it would get squashed and those around buried, and shock waves destroying buildings for much further around.

 

but on a Global scale?[/quote']

 

This asteroid is not large enough to cause big damage on a global scale. It would compeltly smash whatever region it hit, or make tsunamis that would make these asian quake waves look like a joke. It would throw up a lot of dirt, maybe that years winter would be a bit colder, but no long term damage.

[Ophiolite]

A 5.0km crater would have significant regional, but very limited global effects. Imagine it centred on Buckingham Palace. The shock waves would take out the rest of London. Windows in the Louvre blow in. Hikers in the Alps hear a big bang. Gilded in Helsinki carries on drinking unaware. Lots of dust. (The dinosaurs in the Natural History Museum get it for a second time!) Nice sunsets for a few years.

[YT2095]

yeah, I was thinking along the same lines myself. I`m quite ignorant on the subject though, and so I wondered to What extent in REAL TERMS og hazzard would occur globaly.

 

in specific would it be Survivable if you`re on the otherside of the globe?

 

edit: in response to Tycho

[5614]

assuming the globe didnt split in half and it wasnt some stupidly MASSIVE meteorite then on the other side of the world you will survive it.

[YT2095]

Cool!

 

it always hits America in the films anyway, so we should be nice and safe here in the UK

[Gilded]

"Gilded in Helsinki carries on drinking unaware."

 

Ahh, Helsinki is a place full of idiots. And that's one thing that makes me think why I don't live there.

 

"it always hits America in the films anyway, so we should be nice and safe here in the UK :)"

 

You got that right. Hopefully Bruce Willis is still alive when the asteroid gets near, so that he can go and blow it up with some nukes.

[5614]

Hopefully Bruce Willis is still alive when the asteroid gets near, so that he can go and blow it up with some nukes.

 

that was on UK TV about a week ago!

 

i wonder what would happen if Bush and Blair went on TV and said "we're all gonna die!"... it'd have an interesting effect on the world, which means they'd have to lie to us and in the end no one would know the truth and there'd be more panic.

 

well when it does come if someone posts it here that'd be great

[[Tycho?]]

yeah' date=' I was thinking along the same lines myself. I`m quite ignorant on the subject though, and so I wondered to What extent in REAL TERMS og hazzard would occur globaly.

 

in specific would it be Survivable if you`re on the otherside of the globe?

 

edit: in response to Tycho[/quote']

 

Oh you wouldn't need to be on the other side of the globe to survive that, not by a long shot. If this thing hit, say London dead on, then it would flatten/burn most of western and central Europe, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, France and England of course would suffer severe damage. Fortunately this isn't a nuke, so EM radiation wouldn't be so much of a concern in causing burns and fires over long distances. These would still occur, but people on continental Europe would have a fairly good chance of surviving as long as they wern't in collapsing buildings. Most of southern England would be totally gone.

 

If you were in say, Greece when this happend you'd be fine. You would hear it, might see the flash, would see the cloud of smoke after a while, but I dont think the shockwave would do more than break windows at that range.

 

This is really all guess work of course. But I can tell you most certainly that this isn't the sort of thing that will incinerate a whole side of the planet. This will incinerate a medium sized nation, cause big damage to the whole region its in, but outside that there would be very little.

[Ophiolite]

Tycho, you seem to be granting a 400m impact an order of magnitude greater effect than I am (post 32). Did your run calculations or were you doing a back of the envelope, without the envelope, like me?

 

Edit: I just found this site, ran the figures through it, and for a 400m object it matches my guesses. (Or really the other way round.)

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

[ed84c]

Anybody know of a link to a video of the asteroid to make a screensaver?

 

heres one to 1950 DA (prob. hit earth in 800 years)

 

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da/movie_1950da.mpg

[[Tycho?]]

Tycho' date=' you seem to be granting a 400m impact an order of magnitude greater effect than I am (post 32). Did your run calculations or were you doing a back of the envelope, without the envelope, like me?

 

Edit: I just found this site, ran the figures through it, and for a 400m object it matches my guesses. (Or really the other way round.)

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/[/quote']

 

What numbers did you use?

 

edit: I might as while give up, I was just guessing based on nuke explosions and their megatonnage, but I seemed to have overestimated a lot.

[coquina]

The tsunami that has caused so many deaths in Maylasia would be a very small ripple in comparison. The bolide that struck the area where the Chesapeake is now located sent a tsunami to the foot of the Blue Ridge mountains - 180 miles away.

[Ophiolite]

'']What numbers did you use?.

Distance from Impact: 390.00 km = 242.19 miles *

Projectile Diameter: 400.00 m = 1312.00 ft = 0.25 miles

Projectile Density: 2600 kg/m3

Impact Velocity: 13.00 km/s = 8.07 miles/s

Impact Angle: 44 degrees

Target Density: 2500 kg/m3

Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

 

*That was to check if it would blow out the windows in the Louvre.

[TimeTraveler]

My science teacher likes to go on and on about asteroids and meteoroids whizzing by us' date=' unnoticed until afterwards.

He told us last Wednesday that on the 20th an asteroid came by at 200 miles. Dunno how true it is (he's like me, he likes to exaggerate) but that still makes you worry a bit.

Especially since we apparently didn't catch it until after it had passed.[/quote']

 

No one responded so I will, (it's only a month late ). Yes its true, happens all the time. I think hes off on the distance though I have not heard of one passing that close. 200,000 miles maybe, but in the scheme of things that is very close for comfort when talking about something that could potentially wipe us out.

 

In the past six months, while the world focused on the continuing threat of global terrorism, as many as a dozen or more asteroids sneaked up on the Earth and zoomed by at distances just beyond the Moon's orbit and closer. Most were never noticed. Earlier this month, astronomers did spot one. Four days after it flew by.

[Rasori]

Ah, okay. I knew the 200 was a part of it... just missing two syllables after it