2012 DA14 Flyby path

[LaurieAG]

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/asteroidflyby.html

 

The simulation of the flyby doesn't seem to be correct.

 

The attached image is my plot(s) for the flyby path of 2012 DA14.

 

I had to reverse the side elevation, at least it was symetric, scale it, and plot each against the other as the NASA/JPL images and the simulation were in opposition. BTW, pink is the color you get when you reverse a dark image. I don't think it will hit, there is a possibility it will become a satellite, NASA only said it would not hit the Earth or any other planet although they made no mention of the moon which usually helps to capture quasi moons.

 

The last image is from the second reference from the wiki below which links to an Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) PDF.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_decay

Edited February 13, 2013 by LaurieAG

[Spyman]

AFAIK, NASA is very confident that 2012 DA14 will NOT hit Earth and neither become a satellite thereof.

 

2012 DA14 orbits the Sun like Earth but in a slightly different orbit and while the close encounter will change the asteroids orbit from 368 days to 317 days, it will take more than 30 years before it will come close to Earth again.

 

"The asteroid will not impact Earth on February 15, 2013."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_DA14

 

"The 2013 close approach to Earth will reduce the orbital period of 2012 DA14 from 368 days to 317 days. The close approach to Earth will perturb the asteroid from the Apollo class to the Aten class of near-Earth asteroids. The next notable close approach to Earth will be on 15 February 2046 when the asteroid will pass no closer than 0.01 AU (1,500,000 km; 930,000 mi) from the center-point of Earth."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_DA14

 

"NASA's NEO Program Office can accurately predict the asteroid's path with the observations obtained, and it is therefore known that there is no chance that the asteroid might be on a collision course with the Earth."

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news177.html

 

"Since 2012 DA14's orbital period around the Sun has been about 368 days, which is very similar to the Earth's, the asteroid made a series of annual close approaches, this year's being the closest. But this encounter will shorten 2012 DA14's orbital period to about 317 days, changing its orbital class from Apollo to Aten, and its future close approaches will follow a different pattern. The close approach this year is the closest the asteroid will come for at least 3 decades.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news177.html

 

Image obtained from: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012+DA14;orb=1

Edited February 13, 2013 by Spyman

[LaurieAG]

Hey blackhat Spyman,

 

I never said that I thought it would hit the earth.

 

How do you reconcile the simulation that comes in and then goes out with the diagram that shows it going around?

[Ophiolite]

I am confused.

1. None of your plots show it going around.

2. You do not explain why you think the simulation is apparently incorrect.

3. There is no possibility that it could be captured by the Earth on this path.

Please clarify your thinking.

[Spyman]

Hey blackhat Spyman,

 

I never said that I thought it would hit the earth.

 

How do you reconcile the simulation that comes in and then goes out with the diagram that shows it going around?

LOL, copycat

 

You said: "I don't think it will hit", which I clarified to avoid people getting scared.

 

I don't understand your question, follow my link and by revolving and zooming further you can get this picture:

 

Image obtained from: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012+DA14;orb=1

 

Which clearly shows that the asteroid goes in and out of Earths neighbourhood while still orbiting the Sun.

[LaurieAG]

In the movie The Dish the young Australian technician said he redid the calculations because NASA had done the Southern Hemisphere calculations from the perspective of the Northern Hemisphere.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dish_(movie)

 

10 minutes ago I saw, during our 5:00pm news, that NASA has asked an Australian amateur astronomer to track the asteroid because the Sliding Springs (Australia's largest) Observatory is out of action due to bush fires. The simulated path is shown in red and it looks very much like the calcs were done wrong again.

Edited February 14, 2013 by LaurieAG

[Spyman]

Well, I don't think you have to worry, if NASA have asked Australian amateur astronomers to track the asteroid, then they are more than likely able to discover any mistakes and correct for them in time such that they don't miss the approach. Further more since the asteroid will approach from the South and recede to the North, the Goldstone observatory in California, the Haystack Observatory in Massachusetts and the EISCAT radar near Tromso in Norway will make radar observations during that part of the encounter.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Spyman

[LaurieAG]

Hi Spyman,

 

83% of radiologists failed to spot the gorilla in the x-ray too.

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57568784/can-you-spot-the-gorilla-in-this-ct-scan-most-radiologists-couldnt/

 

Considering that 9.2k people watched the NASA video with 37K likes the percentage of people who failed to spot this error is at least 99.9999%. Not good.

[Ophiolite]

Laurie, I would still appreciate an answer to my question in post #4. Doubtless I am being real dumb and missing the obvious, but is that a reason to avoid answering? I suppose it must be.

[Spyman]

Like Ophiolite, I am also confused and unable to spot any errors made by NASA, but there is a small possibility that you could have misinterpreted their pictures in the link you presented in the OP. I suspect this because you have reversed the side elevation.

This are the images on that page:


Graphic depicts the trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14 on Feb 15, 2013. In this view, we are looking down from above Earth's north pole. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/asteroidflyby.html


Graphic depicts the trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14 during its close approach, as seen edge-on to Earth's equatorial plane. The graphic demonstrates why the asteroid is invisible to northern hemisphere observers until just before close approach: it is approaching from "underneath" our planet. On the other hand, after close approach it will be favorably placed for observers in the northern hemisphere. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/asteroidflyby.html

Please note that for some reason there is no arrow pointing towards the Sun in the second picture, which can make it seem like that image is viewed as seen from the Sun towards Earth, however in this picture from my link in post #2 there is an arrow pointing towards the Sun, which is to the left side of the image:


Diagram showing Asteroid 2012 DA14's passage by the Earth on February 15, 2013.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news177.html

Edited February 14, 2013 by Spyman

[LaurieAG]

Laurie, I would still appreciate an answer to my question in post #4. Doubtless I am being real dumb and missing the obvious, but is that a reason to avoid answering? I suppose it must be.

If you rotate the NASA/JPL plan image so that the arrow to the sun aligns with the end elevation images arrow to the sun the path of 2012 DA14 goes from the north and heads towards the south not vice a versa.

 

I always thought that Australia was downunder i.e. the Southern Hemisphere.

[LaurieAG]

Ophiolite and Spyman, It might help to look at the basics first without the paths.

[Spyman]

I am sorry, but your "basics" image does not help me understand why you think NASA's pictures are wrong and from your explanation in post #11, it still seems likely that you are misinterpreting them.

[Ophiolite]

Agreed.